PLTR | Neutral-to-Short | Overvaluation | (May 2025)

5月6日

PLTR | Neutral-to-Short | Overvaluation + Hype Exhaustion Risk | (May 2025)


1️⃣ Short Insight Summary:
Palantir has been riding the AI hype wave, but valuations are extremely stretched. Despite strong growth, price action shows signs of slowing — making this a "watch closely" rather than "chase blindly" setup.

2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Watching for short setup — not entering yet
Entry Zone: If price retests $19–20 and stalls again
Stop Loss: Above $121.50 (breakout continuation risk)
TP1 (potential short): $117.00 — minor structure support
TP2: $15.50 — deeper pullback zone
TP3 (optional): $113.90 — if broader correction plays out

3️⃣ Key Notes:
✅ Fundamentals at a Glance:

Revenue: $2.87B | Net Income: ~$460M

Market Cap: $291B (!) — over 10x revenue, signals extreme overvaluation

P/S Ratio: 19x

Price to Cash Flow: 272x — typical range for healthy companies is 20–40

EPS and Book Value: Weak vs market cap (Tangible BV: $2.13)

Beta: 2.45 — very volatile

✅ Business Model:
Palantir builds AI-driven software for government and commercial use. Notably, government revenue and commercial segments both grew ~40% YoY — great performance, but possibly priced in already.

❌ Current Market Behavior:

Everyone's talking about PLTR — hype levels are extremely high

Price currently sitting near previous all-time highs

Technicals show signs of exhaustion — money is slightly flowing out on 30min charts

Daily chart still bullish, but 4H shows price stalling — a correction seems likely

A dip to ~$19 or lower (4–5% pullback) would be normal, even healthy

❌ Short Setup Caution:
Although the chart leans bearish short term, this is a hype-driven stock. Fighting it blindly with a short could be risky. If a correction does set in, it's more likely to be a measured move rather than a full trend reversal — for now.

4️⃣ Follow-up Note:
I’ll be watching for a short opportunity if rejection confirms near $20–21. No position for now — observing price behavior closely as hype may still carry it higher in the short term.

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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.

5月7日

ノート

As I said the short happend