Polycab - Valuations at its peak

2023年11月4日

Polycab stellar performer among wires & cables. Polycab's guidance value is to achieve 20K Cr revenue(top-line) sales by 2026. And it appears they'll achieve ahead of timeline. Company expects volume growth to continue in the second half as well. As of 2023, 14K Cr sales.

Jefferies adjusted its price target for Polycab India from INR4,835 to INR6,220 and maintained its "buy" rating

Been riding this since 2021.

• Earnings are growing good every quarter.
  
• Revenue(8 to 16K Cr),
  
• Net profit(766 to 1622),
  
• EPS(50 to 100)
  
• All these roughly doubled in 3Y since 2020.
  
• Whereas Price grown 7 times. 740 to around 5K
  

Further in terms of valuations

1. PE (Price to Earnings ratio) Last 5Y avg is 31.426 Current 46.40
   
2. PB (Price to Book ratio) Last 5Y avg is 6.332 Current 11.45
   
3. PS (Price to Sales ratio) Last 5Y avg is 2.8. Current 4.7
   

I'll patiently wait for price near 50% Fib level which is 3350. 2600 is fair value.
Pivot R2 is at 3533.
Historical fall is 35% from ATH. So 35% from ATH is 3570.
Previous resistance breakout is at 3618 which could act as support.
So +/- 5 to 8% above 50% fib level.
I'll start watching from 3620 and accumulate gradually over fall & reversal.

Disclaimer: Entered and averaged up Since Mid 2021 till Mar 2023. Holding.

1月11日

ノート

Double top(swing highs with 200 pips diff) with neck at 4876.15. When price close below neck, RSI trendline will be broken. Trendline is from Jun 20 '22. There is a support at 3620 made of 1month consolidation which is also touching long term trendline. It is also 61.8% fib level. Whenever double top neckline is broken down, 2 to 2.5 or 3 times the height of neck from top is an ideal target which is around that support zone. That zone is also around 35% fall from top(historical fall)