SCHW | Bull-Flag Structure & AVWAP Break with a 102 Target

SCHW has been trading inside a broad bull-flag channel since late summer. This week’s price action broke above the anchored VWAP, a level that has repeatedly acted as a mean-reversion barrier during this consolidation. The breakout shifts focus toward the upper boundary of the flag and the next area of interest near $102.

The $102 zone represents just over a 7% move from breakout levels. This is important because this sits inside the 75th percentile of the stock’s historical return distribution. In other words, it’s a move that is historically frequent enough to be statistically reasonable while still offering meaningful extension. It also remains comfortably within SCHW’s typical monthly standard deviation (~11%), keeping the scenario aligned with the stock’s normal volatility profile.

Scenarios:

• If price holds above the anchored VWAP → momentum could extend toward the flag’s upper rail and the 102 zone.
  
• If price slips back below VWAP → the pattern may revert into further range-bound behavior within the existing flag.
  

$102 is the key upside zone—a statistically reasonable extension and the next decision point if the bull-flag breakout holds.