SPX Recession Looming Stronger
アップデート済
As we approach critical crossroads for where markets are headed let us have a small recap of how we got here.
Here is my SPX post I published on March 23rd. Price has finally hit support in the chart. See for yourself:
Something odd though is that NDQ (Posted on March 22) has not reached this same type of long term support:
If we simply compare the 2020 Boom VS Now:
(2020 Boom)~SPX already corrected 35%~Low inflation~Growing Economy~FED cut Rates to 0%~FED QE~10 FED Term Sheets~Commodity Abundance~No Wars~No Sanctions~No Pandemic~No World Food Crisis
(Now)~SPX corrected only 19%~HIGH Inflation~Slowing Economy~FED Raising Rates (Potentially 8 Hikes)~FED QT~No FED Term Sheets~Commodity Scarcity~Russia/Ukraine War~Sanctions~Pandemic (China with No Covid Policy Lockdown)~World Food Crisis
Now that Price has tested 13-year support, what's next?
Well, the answer isn't always so simple.
If things continue on this same path or even worst, begin to unravel further, this is a very reasonable outlook if faced with a Global Recession.
More interesting still, look at Elon Musk's tweets that seem to have perfectly timed the top.
Is that a really strange coincidence or does he have access to information we don't?
Anyways to further drive a few points we also have Soaring Energy or more specifically Oil . I will leave this here for reference. The post explains the situation quite well:
Another thing to consider is the US Yields and its correlation with the stock market: We have seen both a yield inversion and steeping of yields which has been the precursor for the last 6+ recessions.
The last thing two things ill leave off on is the World Food Crisis and one last thing about US Treasury Yields.
Here is Wheat Futures in comparison to just before the GFC in 2008:
And the US Treasury Yields in relation to the previous stock market recession/crashes:
This post is not necessarily a prediction, but rather just an acknowledgment of its potential.
If we do see a World Wide Recession play out, this is a very realistic outlook in my opinion.
Here is my SPX post I published on March 23rd. Price has finally hit support in the chart. See for yourself:
Something odd though is that NDQ (Posted on March 22) has not reached this same type of long term support:
If we simply compare the 2020 Boom VS Now:
(2020 Boom)~SPX already corrected 35%~Low inflation~Growing Economy~FED cut Rates to 0%~FED QE~10 FED Term Sheets~Commodity Abundance~No Wars~No Sanctions~No Pandemic~No World Food Crisis
(Now)~SPX corrected only 19%~HIGH Inflation~Slowing Economy~FED Raising Rates (Potentially 8 Hikes)~FED QT~No FED Term Sheets~Commodity Scarcity~Russia/Ukraine War~Sanctions~Pandemic (China with No Covid Policy Lockdown)~World Food Crisis
Now that Price has tested 13-year support, what's next?
Well, the answer isn't always so simple.
If things continue on this same path or even worst, begin to unravel further, this is a very reasonable outlook if faced with a Global Recession.
More interesting still, look at Elon Musk's tweets that seem to have perfectly timed the top.
Is that a really strange coincidence or does he have access to information we don't?
Anyways to further drive a few points we also have Soaring Energy or more specifically Oil . I will leave this here for reference. The post explains the situation quite well:
Another thing to consider is the US Yields and its correlation with the stock market: We have seen both a yield inversion and steeping of yields which has been the precursor for the last 6+ recessions.
The last thing two things ill leave off on is the World Food Crisis and one last thing about US Treasury Yields.
Here is Wheat Futures in comparison to just before the GFC in 2008:
And the US Treasury Yields in relation to the previous stock market recession/crashes:
This post is not necessarily a prediction, but rather just an acknowledgment of its potential.
If we do see a World Wide Recession play out, this is a very realistic outlook in my opinion.
ノート
Here is the short term outlook:
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