Spread between 10 and 2 year treasury rates to detect when spreads go negative (inverted yield curve), Currently at the lowest level in the spread since last recession.
Historically, inversions of the yield curve have preceded many of the U.S. recessions. Due to this historical correlation, the yield curve is often seen as an accurate forecast of the turning points of the business cycle.
Historically, inversions of the yield curve have preceded many of the U.S. recessions. Due to this historical correlation, the yield curve is often seen as an accurate forecast of the turning points of the business cycle.