S&P500指数ロング
S&P 500 Updated
The S&P 500 concluded the week -1.4% lower, snapping a five-week winning streak and forming an interesting candlestick formation (see below).
From the monthly timeframe, I do not have much to add. The following passage shows where I left the monthly chart last week (italics):
Aided by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounding from support between 40.00 and 50.00 (common in strong uptrends), monthly price is fast approaching the all-time high at 4,818 set at the beginning of 2022.
From the weekly chart, the week concluded in the shape of a harami candlestick pattern (note that this is similar to the inside candle formation, though with harami formations, the candle bodies are considered, not the upper and lower shadows). Like an inside bar indicates a contraction in volatility, the harami operates similarly. And what follows a contraction in volatility is usually a bout of high volatility. Therefore, the current harami signals that either a trend reversal to the downside could be in the offing or an increase in velocity to the upside may unfold (we have been noticeably trending higher since October 2022 [in fact, we are trending higher on the monthly, weekly and daily timeframes]). Either way, two important technical levels to watch this week are 4,325 support and channel resistance taken from the high of 4,100 seen overhead. Also of technical relevance on the weekly chart, the RSI shows signs of topping near overbought territory, following a breakout above an ascending triangle pattern in late March.
Following a near-test of resistance from 4,473 (alongside the RSI testing indicator resistance at 76.39 within overbought territory), the daily timeframe ended the week throwing light on a decision point at 4,260-4,299. This base is located just south of the weekly support level highlighted above at 4,325 and could be a location dip-buyers are drawn to this week.
From the monthly timeframe, I do not have much to add. The following passage shows where I left the monthly chart last week (italics):
Aided by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounding from support between 40.00 and 50.00 (common in strong uptrends), monthly price is fast approaching the all-time high at 4,818 set at the beginning of 2022.
From the weekly chart, the week concluded in the shape of a harami candlestick pattern (note that this is similar to the inside candle formation, though with harami formations, the candle bodies are considered, not the upper and lower shadows). Like an inside bar indicates a contraction in volatility, the harami operates similarly. And what follows a contraction in volatility is usually a bout of high volatility. Therefore, the current harami signals that either a trend reversal to the downside could be in the offing or an increase in velocity to the upside may unfold (we have been noticeably trending higher since October 2022 [in fact, we are trending higher on the monthly, weekly and daily timeframes]). Either way, two important technical levels to watch this week are 4,325 support and channel resistance taken from the high of 4,100 seen overhead. Also of technical relevance on the weekly chart, the RSI shows signs of topping near overbought territory, following a breakout above an ascending triangle pattern in late March.
Following a near-test of resistance from 4,473 (alongside the RSI testing indicator resistance at 76.39 within overbought territory), the daily timeframe ended the week throwing light on a decision point at 4,260-4,299. This base is located just south of the weekly support level highlighted above at 4,325 and could be a location dip-buyers are drawn to this week.
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