S&P 500 Weekly Log-Scale Data Comparison

2021年7月18日

In this chart we analyzed the S&P 500's long-term weekly movements in a log-scale and there seems to be amazing correlation to a time in history where S&P did exactly the same movements for roughly the same amount of time. The topping out was signaled by the touching of the middle yellow line just like in 1987. The market quickly corrected at that time, the question is are we getting to the same situation again?

One other idea circulating around the web and mainstream media is the stock market bubble of 2021. We wanted to show you all that the top band of the yellow lines in the log-scale only reached during bubble behavior, and this time it's still below that line at this point. However, going higher from here onward might take us into a bubble territory.

Note: 1987 Crash happened with very similar parameters and did not reach top yellow line (Bubble-band).

This chart also includes an analysis by Robert Pechter who wrote the famous book "Conquering the Crash"; In one of his recent presentations he shows the Fibonacci cycle of how from the Beginning of the US the markets have been following the Fibonacci cycle and now is at year Zero after 233 years.

Note: His work shows good correlation of market peaks at various times throughout history.

Please feel free to comment and share your thoughts and ideas, we would love to hear your thoughts on this!

Thanks!