Prediction for SPY over next 2 months

2022年11月27日

• Strong resistance line together with 200EMA will keep SPY prices below.
  
• Took into account seasonal patterns, which is usually split into 3 phases, a rise, a fall, then a final year end rally.
  
• Expect SPY to consolidate end of year, and crash only early 2023.
  
• Reasons to continue being bearish includes (not limited to)
  -10yr/3m yield curve deeply inverted (Indicator that recession will come)
  - VIX at a bottom (20) (Indicator that more volatility will come)
  - Monetary tightening (This has only 1 outcome to be frank. If every $1 by Fed contributes to $0.92 in stock market, you can imagine what happens when liquidity is extracted)
  - Bonds moving up signalling getting into phase 1 of business cycle (? - maybe)