Presumed high in coming week would represent 5-waves off the February low. This Elliott Wave pattern is normally bullish off a low; however, one short-term bearish potential remains - an expanded flat.
Bearish alternative:
SPY may be completing a 4th wave of C of (4). This pattern would resolve to one more low near SPY 176.5 (could be as low as SPX 1750). This decline could be in 3 sub-waves as indicated, which presumes the entire decline for the wave-B high in early November has been an ending diagonal.
Another bearish interpretation (not annotated) places the minor B-wave high in early December with an impulsive decline following. In this case, the coming wave iv high still applies, but the presumes decline following would be impulsive (5 sub-waves).
Bullish alternative:
The entire correction completed last Friday. This week's rally represents the majority of wave 1 to new all-time highs. This alternative is shown in cyan (blue). Placement of minor waves 1-5 are notional pending completion of a wave 2 pull-back.
Neutral due to difficulty predicting whether a future decline would be a bearish completion of intermediate wave (4), or a corrective reset in minor cyan wave 2. Regardless, long-term investors can buy in the blue target box. Reference weekly analysis.
Bearish alternative:
SPY may be completing a 4th wave of C of (4). This pattern would resolve to one more low near SPY 176.5 (could be as low as SPX 1750). This decline could be in 3 sub-waves as indicated, which presumes the entire decline for the wave-B high in early November has been an ending diagonal.
Another bearish interpretation (not annotated) places the minor B-wave high in early December with an impulsive decline following. In this case, the coming wave iv high still applies, but the presumes decline following would be impulsive (5 sub-waves).
Bullish alternative:
The entire correction completed last Friday. This week's rally represents the majority of wave 1 to new all-time highs. This alternative is shown in cyan (blue). Placement of minor waves 1-5 are notional pending completion of a wave 2 pull-back.
Neutral due to difficulty predicting whether a future decline would be a bearish completion of intermediate wave (4), or a corrective reset in minor cyan wave 2. Regardless, long-term investors can buy in the blue target box. Reference weekly analysis.
コメント:
Bullish alternative apparently playing out, and price may not revisit the target box in cyan wave 2. However, IF price does correct in a 3-wave retrace holding support above the 61.8% retrace of coming high, THEN higher bullish targets on longer timeframes could be seen.
