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SPY adjusted in July for the election ...

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In July, the market adjusted slightly to prepare for the upcoming election on Nov. 5th, 2024. The SPY was usually topping out around the 22nd of the month, and started to go back up around the beginning of each month. But in July the downward movement lasted a little longer. (I circled the area where it started to adjust) and it started to go back up around August 6th.

I suspect the market will start to go up tomorrow as the 4 hour, 5 hour indicators started to show a move upward. I believe it will gap up tomorrow and continue to go up. I should have entered today but missed my chance.

I just started to use the Heikin-Ashi candlesticks as I find they show more of a definite direction on the chart itself. But I am still learning about this. :-) But you can see on the chart how you can see a definite direction on the chart itself.

I use the MacD, DMI and the Stochastic RSI as my indicators.

The SPY will move between 32 to 40 pts this month before a brief retracement prior to the election. This was the average movement in the past few months.

I use the fib tool to get a general approximation of the target. I'm not exact on how to use the tool so my targets are a little off.

I suspect the target will be around 598 (3.618 fib) to 604 (4.236 fib)

It should hit this target around Oct 22 -25th before trading sideways or going slightly lower prior to the US election.

After the election, the market will go back up.

Happy trading, everyone!!

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I was right about it gapping up today, but wrong about it continuing to go straight up. (Which I should have known as the market tends to fill the gap.) I should have known that it would have gone down a little after opening, before continuing to go up.)

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This is the 4 hour chart:

This is the 5 hour chart:

This is the 6 hour chart:

This is the 7 hour chart. Its not turning just yet; but if you zoom in closer to the MacD it does look like it is turning.

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7 hour

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You can see with above charts (4 hour, 5 hr, 6 hr) that the stochastic is/has closed and is turning up. The MacD on some of the charts are showing a bull trend as well.

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Also, if you advance the chart by one more day, you can see a green candle without a wick. The smaller the wick the stronger the trend. I would wait for another day of an upward candle before entering.

Added to everything else, this is looking more and more like an upward movement.

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Even though the SPY went down today, I do suspect it will go up based on the 30 minute indicators. But I don't suspect it will go as high as I predicted before. I think it will only hit 589 by the end of October. But tomorrow will be the deciding factor if I keep this trade open or close it down.

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I am still not that great at using the Heikin-Ashi candlesticks. Heikin-Ashi candles tend to smooth out the movements of the chart. If I would have looked at just the regular candlesticks I would have possibly realized a move down today.

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The SPY is moving sideways not upwards. believe it will move downward later next week.

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I am going to open up this trade again. I closed it prematurely. LOL! It is going up just like I suspect. It will go up one more day next week. Then it will fall for one day briefly before continuing the climb for the next 6 days or so. You won't see the fall so much on the heikin Ashi candlesticks as they tend to smooth out the trend. But you will see this brief downward movement more on the regular candlesticks.

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Also, I think the target would hit is 589 or the 2.618 fib line by October 22nd to 25th. If I had to guess I would say Oct. 23rd. Then it will trade sideways or slightly down until the beginning of November.

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The SPY went down this week like I predicted on Tuesday, October 15th. You can see it better on a candlestick chart as opposed to a Heikin Ashi candlestick.

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So today, the SPY went up and I suspect it will go up until Oct 23rd before trading sideways. I was anticipating the target of 589 by Oct. 23, but I think it may go as high as 598 as the typical move up was around 32 points.

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I have been busy lately. But the SPY did not reach as high as I thought it would. It only went up to the 1.618 fibinocci or 580.35.