SWIGGY : Next Multi-bagger ??

SWIGGY

🚀 SWIGGY LTD – Combined Technical + Fundamental Analysis
As of: 24 July 2025 | CMP: ₹420.50 |

📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

🔷 Pattern: Cup and Handle Breakout

• Cup & Handle pattern completed over 5 months (Feb–July 2025)
  
• Breakout Level: ₹409 (marked horizontal resistance)
  
• CMP: ₹420.50 — breakout confirmed with strong volume
  
• Cup Depth: ₹409 – ₹285 = ₹124
  

🔍 Indicators & Price Action:

Price vs 50 EMA ✅ Above (bullish short-term trend)
Price vs 200 EMA ✅ Above (bullish long-term trend)
Volume ✅ Breakout confirmed with surge
RSI ~63 (strong but not overbought)

🔧 Key Levels:
Support Resistance Swing Target
₹409 (Breakout retest) ₹445 / ₹480 ₹533 (measured move)

Technical Verdict:
Bullish breakout from a long base. With volume confirmation and improving fundamentals, Swiggy is poised for a multi-week rally.

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📊 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

📈 1. Revenue Growth
Swiggy has shown consistent and impressive topline expansion over the past 3 years:

Financial Year Revenue (₹ Cr) YoY Growth
FY22 ₹5,705 –
FY23 ₹8,265 +45%
FY24 ₹11,115 +34%
FY25 (Est.) ₹14,500 +30% est.

Growth Drivers:

🚀 Instamart (Grocery) – fastest-growing vertical

🍽️ Food Delivery – steady in Tier I, expanding in Tier II/III

📍 Strong presence in metros, improving reach in smaller cities

💰 2. Profit Trajectory
Swiggy was known for heavy cash burn pre-IPO, but is now nearing profitability:

Financial Year Net Profit/Loss (₹ Cr) EBITDA (₹ Cr)
FY23 -₹4,179 -₹3,363
FY24 -₹1,482 -₹1,115
FY25 (Est.) +₹75 (Profit) +₹350

📉 Losses reduced by over 60% in 12 months

🔁 EBITDA-positive since Q4 FY25 — a major turning point

🛠️ Cost control, reduced discounting, and Instamart’s scale driving margin growth

🌱 3. Future Growth Prospects
Swiggy is now strategically positioned to capture multiple long-term themes:

Segment Outlook Comments
Instamart 🌟 High Growth 60%+ YoY growth, core revenue driver by FY26
Food Delivery 🔁 Steady to Moderate Strong in metros; Tier II/III scaling slowly
Dineout + Genie 🧊 Low Growth Not major contributors, but strengthen ecosystem
New Revenue 🧠 Ads, cloud kitchens High-margin potential in FY26/FY27

🧾 IPO proceeds deployed into logistics & tech infra (no major debt)

📈 Possible MSCI/Nifty Next 50 inclusion in FY26

🔓 Optionality: Entry into fintech/payments, loyalty programs, and dark kitchens

🔚 COMBINED VIEW – TECHNICAL + FUNDAMENTAL

• Technical Pattern ✅ Cup & Handle breakout at ₹409
  
• Revenue Trend ✅ Strong CAGR ~36%
  
• Profit Outlook ✅ Profitability by FY25 end
  
• Future Potential ✅ High – Instamart + Ads + Tier-II expansion
  
• Risk ⚠️ Valuation premium + ONDC threat remains
  

⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only.
We are not SEBI-registered analysts or advisors.
This is our personal view based on available data and market trends.
Please consult your SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
You are solely responsible for any financial decisions you make based on this content.


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Trade Secrets By Pratik
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