If
TLT
manages to break below $100 here, it's next and final target would be $88 before upside.
I think if this happens, risk assets will take a nose dive lower (just like they did last year).
TLT
manages to break below $100 here, it's next and final target would be $88 before upside. I think if this happens, risk assets will take a nose dive lower (just like they did last year).
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Took some Sept 15 $95 strike puts here
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Added to my put position here. Sept 15 $95, $90 puts.
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And there goes the bond market... massive support broken.
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I covered both of my put positions today. Up 200 and 500%. Not because I think he trade is over, but mainly because I see a bounce coming and I don't like how many people have caught onto the short TLT trade.
Think we need to shake people out of it who entered today before the trend resumes.
Think we need to shake people out of it who entered today before the trend resumes.
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I'm looking for a bounce up to $98 or so, and that's where I'd like to reaccumulate. If it doesn't play out and we keep dropping, then I'll take the long side at $88
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Hmm definitely questioning whether it can make it as high as $98 on the bounce. Somewhere between here and 97 more likely. Then a reversal.
I'm probably not going to add my puts back, I think there are better trades to take than squeezing out the rest of the juice to the downside. I just hate the sentiment now that everyone has caught onto the trade.
Will likely wait till 88 and buy calls.
I'm probably not going to add my puts back, I think there are better trades to take than squeezing out the rest of the juice to the downside. I just hate the sentiment now that everyone has caught onto the trade.
Will likely wait till 88 and buy calls.
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If we can't make it down to $88 this week, then I'll expect a broader bounce before the target gets hit.
I will not be playing the long side until that target gets hit though. Mainly because the chart is still bearish, I expect more downside, and it's not worth the risk until the downside target is met.
Let's see how this week plays out.
I will not be playing the long side until that target gets hit though. Mainly because the chart is still bearish, I expect more downside, and it's not worth the risk until the downside target is met.
Let's see how this week plays out.
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If I had to guess what brings it lower, a hot CPI print Thursday I could see TLT spiking lower. Let's see if that gets us a bottom.
In the meantime, I could see price rallying to $98.30 or so tops.
In the meantime, I could see price rallying to $98.30 or so tops.
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Ended up buying a small position of $93P for 8/18 just incase my thesis plays out of CPI sending bonds lower tomorrow.
They were really cheap at $.13 / contract. Let's see what happens
They were really cheap at $.13 / contract. Let's see what happens
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Looks like we got a break lower in TLT. Let's see if the idea plays out of 88 bottom.
So far, the options are in the positive up 30%.
So far, the options are in the positive up 30%.
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Took gains on this. Think we could see a bounce in the market
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TLT should bounce here to somewhere between $98-101 before it's last leg down.
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Welp, looks like I should've kept my $93 put. If I'm completely honest, not sure what happens here. Maybe it does go straight to $88
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I added back puts on TLT on Friday. Forgot to update - Sep 01 $90 puts (anticipating bottom being put in this week)
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I added even more TLT puts up here. Some with $93 strike and added to my Sep 01 90P position.
I've been trying to think of what the catalyst could be that would send bonds lower - thinking if they announce a 3% inflation target in Jackson Hole, the bond market wouldn't like that too much. Not sure if that's the catalyst or not, but bonds look stretched here.
I've been trying to think of what the catalyst could be that would send bonds lower - thinking if they announce a 3% inflation target in Jackson Hole, the bond market wouldn't like that too much. Not sure if that's the catalyst or not, but bonds look stretched here.
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Bought $95P for 9/29 as well.
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Almost to target. Again, I expect $88 being the bottom and that's where I'll go long.
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Went long TLT here at $87.45
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Also took some March 15 2024 $101 calls
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