TMHC - Summer '23 Real Estate Apocalypse? (Short)
Redmane: They are over extended on homes built and going to be forced to sell at a loss with rates climbing and people's buying power dropping.
Dawson's notes:
1) Zoom out we're in a large channel with good support at $27 (yellow)
2) The 21 day ATR is between $40 and $33.
3) Price is right against resistance at the $38 double top, which is also the midpoint of the channel (thin dashed lines)). So if we get a bull move, there's not a lot of resistance between $38 and the top of the channel at $50. If we get a bear move, I wouldn't expect to break below $27.
Conclusion:
We're eying a 2.29 to 1 short through the summer.
NOTE: We have a lot of chop and pivot support and an old gap(!) at $28.30 so a TP just above it at $28.57? If i was scalping or looking to take a partial profit, I'd sell a little at 34/33ish (thin green line).
These are just some thoughts to consider. Housing is in a very precarious spot due to the combination of high home prices and high mortgage rates.
Dawson's notes:
1) Zoom out we're in a large channel with good support at $27 (yellow)
2) The 21 day ATR is between $40 and $33.
3) Price is right against resistance at the $38 double top, which is also the midpoint of the channel (thin dashed lines)). So if we get a bull move, there's not a lot of resistance between $38 and the top of the channel at $50. If we get a bear move, I wouldn't expect to break below $27.
Conclusion:
We're eying a 2.29 to 1 short through the summer.
NOTE: We have a lot of chop and pivot support and an old gap(!) at $28.30 so a TP just above it at $28.57? If i was scalping or looking to take a partial profit, I'd sell a little at 34/33ish (thin green line).
These are just some thoughts to consider. Housing is in a very precarious spot due to the combination of high home prices and high mortgage rates.
-dawson
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