In this, I present the case for the crypto market cap being in a possible 5-wave Elliot wave and the recent "bear market" is just wave 4 and not a real "bear market" the bear market following wave 5 will be much more severe than what we just experienced. In EW wave 2 is usually the most severe which would explain why the 2018 bear market was much more painful than what we just saw. Many alts will be putting in new lows during the C-leg as they flush out last cycle's junk and replace it with new stuff.
For this to hold the total crypto market cap has to not take out the 2018 high since that's 'wave 1'. Because of the falling prices of commodities and the dxy heading into a retracement, it looks like we might get a rally to at least the .618 retracement of waves 3 and 4 which should bring the crypto market cap back to around $2.2tn and then we should experience something similar to the c19 crash where we get a retracement back a little deeper than the .618 of wave A-B. The weekly close of the c19 crash was around the .786 on total 1 and the .618 on BTC. After this final C-leg we should be good to put in a new high for that total crypto market cap.
So my plan is to be long on oversold alt-coins under $24k and to start exiting once BTC crosses $47k. It looks like BTC is going to rally back to the low $50k region, if I had to put an exact number on it I'd be looking at $52k/53k.
For this to hold the total crypto market cap has to not take out the 2018 high since that's 'wave 1'. Because of the falling prices of commodities and the dxy heading into a retracement, it looks like we might get a rally to at least the .618 retracement of waves 3 and 4 which should bring the crypto market cap back to around $2.2tn and then we should experience something similar to the c19 crash where we get a retracement back a little deeper than the .618 of wave A-B. The weekly close of the c19 crash was around the .786 on total 1 and the .618 on BTC. After this final C-leg we should be good to put in a new high for that total crypto market cap.
So my plan is to be long on oversold alt-coins under $24k and to start exiting once BTC crosses $47k. It looks like BTC is going to rally back to the low $50k region, if I had to put an exact number on it I'd be looking at $52k/53k.
ノート
This is one scenario and EW count I have.
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