TSLA Elliott Wave Update: B-Wave Truncation at 460 or Extension to 465?
TSLA's rally from the 383 low has tested the 61.8% Fib at 458, forming a potential B-wave top in the A-B-C correction from the 474 high. EMAs provide dynamic support, but MACD/RSI mild divergence signals momentum fade.
Primary Count: B-wave truncates at 460 (0.786 Fib), capping the rally short; current pullback signals C-wave start, targeting 350 (1.0 extension of A). Volume below 1.5B shares on 455 test reinforces failure—odds of C to 350 rise to 70%. Short-term support at 444-451 (bull buffer).
- Resistance: Primary 455-458 (0.618 Fib + heavy historical supply); Secondary 460-467 (B cap, EMA50 crossover). Volume surge >1.5B needed for break.
- Support: Secondary 434-440 (EMA200 channel low).
- Indicators: MACD (12,26,9) red bars narrowing to 0.32 hints exhaustion; RSI (14) at 68 with bearish divergence warns pullback. Volume MA shows low conviction above 455 (1.3B vs. 1.5B threshold).
Alternative Count: B-wave extends to 465-470 (0.786-1.0 Fib), then C pulls back to 350-380 (1.0 extension) or 320-330 (1.618 A extreme). Probability 25-30%, up on recent strength.
Scenario C: B exceeds 474 on volume >1.5B, invalidating correction for 5-wave impulse: Wave 3 to 520 (1.618x Wave 1, Jan 2026); Wave 5 to 600+ (Q2 2026). Probability 30-35%.
Monitoring: 12/17 FOMC rate cut catalyst.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
TSLA's rally from the 383 low has tested the 61.8% Fib at 458, forming a potential B-wave top in the A-B-C correction from the 474 high. EMAs provide dynamic support, but MACD/RSI mild divergence signals momentum fade.
Primary Count: B-wave truncates at 460 (0.786 Fib), capping the rally short; current pullback signals C-wave start, targeting 350 (1.0 extension of A). Volume below 1.5B shares on 455 test reinforces failure—odds of C to 350 rise to 70%. Short-term support at 444-451 (bull buffer).
- Resistance: Primary 455-458 (0.618 Fib + heavy historical supply); Secondary 460-467 (B cap, EMA50 crossover). Volume surge >1.5B needed for break.
- Support: Secondary 434-440 (EMA200 channel low).
- Indicators: MACD (12,26,9) red bars narrowing to 0.32 hints exhaustion; RSI (14) at 68 with bearish divergence warns pullback. Volume MA shows low conviction above 455 (1.3B vs. 1.5B threshold).
Alternative Count: B-wave extends to 465-470 (0.786-1.0 Fib), then C pulls back to 350-380 (1.0 extension) or 320-330 (1.618 A extreme). Probability 25-30%, up on recent strength.
Scenario C: B exceeds 474 on volume >1.5B, invalidating correction for 5-wave impulse: Wave 3 to 520 (1.618x Wave 1, Jan 2026); Wave 5 to 600+ (Q2 2026). Probability 30-35%.
Monitoring: 12/17 FOMC rate cut catalyst.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
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“Discussion is welcome. Respect all views — markets are dynamic.”
免責事項
この情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または推奨する金融、投資、トレード、その他のアドバイスや推奨を意図するものではなく、それらを構成するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。