Tesla TSLA - The Bottom Is In, But It's Still Bearish
アップデート済
Tesla has collapsed for five straight months, much to the delight of everyone who hates Elon Musk. To tell you the truth, I think Musk is something of a combination between a psyop, a Fabian, and a guy with some conservative values who wants to protect the happy life he has, but am not particularly a fan of his and don't trust him.
Regardless, the Mastodon socialists, the Reddit Marxists, and much of the supposed "liberals" just hate the guy because he purged the pro-child grooming pro-human trafficking pro-censorship communist old guard when he bought Twitter.
The way life under Communist Party rule works is this:
1. If the Party says you're good, you're good
2. If the Party says you're bad, you're bad
3. The Party is Great, Glorious, and Correct, and is always right
Thus, it really is self evident that it is time for mankind to sober up and eliminate the Chinese Communist Party's things from the areas outside of Mainland China. The Chinese people will soon deal with the CCP inside the Mainland, and Xi and the Party will be gone overnight.
The reason I bring the above up is not to get political or soapbox, but to point out to readers that when you get yourself caught up in these campaigns, you are going to bottom short and lose money because your vision is clouded and you're listening to a political campaign and not a professional.
I've seen so many people calling for $80 TSLA or for Tesla to go the way of Enron and collapse to zero in the next few months that it's actually both alarming and amusing at the same time.
The more your vision is clouded by prejudice as a trader the more likely you are to be one of those guys on r/WallStreetBets posting his 6 figure account that went busto buying 200k worth of short term $25 call options on Peloton, lol.
Black swan risks:
Because of the situation in Mainland China under the Chinese Communist Party as it faces the disaster of the Wuhan Pneumonia epidemic, Tesla and its Shanghai Gigafactory faces significant risk that could cause any successful long trade to endure a market-open gap down exceeding 20%.
For the reality is that the CCP has always been lying and covering up the pandemic situation. All its data and all its narrative are bogus. Really, the epicenter of COVID and a country of 1.5 billion people is posting positive case counts and death counts 95-99% lower than literally every single other country on the entire planet?!
The Party did the same thing during the 2003 SARS epidemic and yet nobody seems to have learned to not trust what that murderous regime says or the numbers it reports.
But you can't do anything for a fool who believes in the Marxist-Leninist atheism and evolution hoax and actually wants the genocidal CCP Red Dynasty in the first place.
The problem for Tesla is the Shanghai Gigafactory seated in Babylon is "our main export hub, supplying vehicles to most markets outside of North America," according to the Q3 earnings Shareholders Deck.
The Babylon Gigafactory has the capacity for three times as many units as Berlin and Texas, and even exceeds California's production capacity.
This is significant for longs because when the Communist Party falls, 6:00 PM Beijing time is 7:00 AM New York Time, and you won't like getting caught in the 1,000 point SPX gap down that the regime's collapse causes and what Wall Street does during that session as it runs for its life when everyone is caught off guard like they were when the USSR fell.
In my opinion, $108 in the last week of December was Tesla's bottom, evidenced by bounce back to $124 that happened Thursday and the strong weekly close to end the year.
However, for long-term Tesla bulls, this is a very bearish indicator, as evidenced on the monthly chart:
For long term bulls, you really do not want a stock to break a major 2-year-old bullish order block, which is exactly what Tesla did. It should maintain it and sharply reverse if there's to truly be another leg up.
There's a direct precedent for this principle on the Nasdaq NQ CME Futures, which did exactly this in March, had an impotent bounce, and has since not been bullish at all. Tech has just been a slaughter house with the exception a few days like November CPI.
Tesla gives you some greater clarity on the weekly candles:
What's strange about Tesla's price action is:
In my opinion, Tesla on the hourly looks like a pretty solid reversal with the gap between $113 and $118 potentially being a breakaway gap.
Another big factor to consider is that the TSLL 1.5x leveraged bull ETF has fallen from $27~ to $6 during this bear run.
A very likely and rational target for this to retrace to when it does go in the other direction is $10. This is a lot of upside and makes for a heck of a trade. TSLL also traded at double its average volume literally three times last week, with 15 million shares being traded on Dec. 29.
Someone had to be the buyer on those trades and they didn't buy so it can go to $4 so easily.
So here's some potential scenarios:
1. Tesla is extremely bearish but will retrace anyways.
If this is the case then $160 is where it should go and it should get held back at the last green daily candle that peaked at $160.93. Either way, this is a pretty good long from the 120s.
2. Tesla has achieved its downside objective and MMs will target short seller funds' buy stops
This particular outcome I regard with a high degree of probability. If so, $330 is exactly where it will go before it will die. This is an amazing long.
3. Nasdaq is about to bounce to 15,000 and Tesla follows a huge bear market rally to perform a bump and run reversal to $420.20
I have reservations about the realism of this outcome, but I definitely believe it's a significant possibility between now and April if a genuine 2008-style market crash is en route for humanity in 2023.
Things that won't happen:
Tesla will not continue on to $500 with a new leg up. Frankly speaking, we're standing at the end of the good times.
It's up to you what you believe. One thing I know is that people don't believe in anything until they see it, and then they FOMO or get scared and give themselves regrets.
But what I want to say to all of you is: if you want a future you have to "practice social distancing" and "hand sanitizing" with the Chinese Communist Party and all of that Marxist atheism and evolution junk.
You need to return to tradition and come to understand that it's no less than the Divine side of the Cosmos our Earth is seated and rotating in that brings a future.
The Chinese Communist Party is a demon that was arranged to destroy the human race. Whoever can't see this are the greatest morons.
Regardless, the Mastodon socialists, the Reddit Marxists, and much of the supposed "liberals" just hate the guy because he purged the pro-child grooming pro-human trafficking pro-censorship communist old guard when he bought Twitter.
The way life under Communist Party rule works is this:
1. If the Party says you're good, you're good
2. If the Party says you're bad, you're bad
3. The Party is Great, Glorious, and Correct, and is always right
Thus, it really is self evident that it is time for mankind to sober up and eliminate the Chinese Communist Party's things from the areas outside of Mainland China. The Chinese people will soon deal with the CCP inside the Mainland, and Xi and the Party will be gone overnight.
The reason I bring the above up is not to get political or soapbox, but to point out to readers that when you get yourself caught up in these campaigns, you are going to bottom short and lose money because your vision is clouded and you're listening to a political campaign and not a professional.
I've seen so many people calling for $80 TSLA or for Tesla to go the way of Enron and collapse to zero in the next few months that it's actually both alarming and amusing at the same time.
The more your vision is clouded by prejudice as a trader the more likely you are to be one of those guys on r/WallStreetBets posting his 6 figure account that went busto buying 200k worth of short term $25 call options on Peloton, lol.
Black swan risks:
Because of the situation in Mainland China under the Chinese Communist Party as it faces the disaster of the Wuhan Pneumonia epidemic, Tesla and its Shanghai Gigafactory faces significant risk that could cause any successful long trade to endure a market-open gap down exceeding 20%.
For the reality is that the CCP has always been lying and covering up the pandemic situation. All its data and all its narrative are bogus. Really, the epicenter of COVID and a country of 1.5 billion people is posting positive case counts and death counts 95-99% lower than literally every single other country on the entire planet?!
The Party did the same thing during the 2003 SARS epidemic and yet nobody seems to have learned to not trust what that murderous regime says or the numbers it reports.
But you can't do anything for a fool who believes in the Marxist-Leninist atheism and evolution hoax and actually wants the genocidal CCP Red Dynasty in the first place.
The problem for Tesla is the Shanghai Gigafactory seated in Babylon is "our main export hub, supplying vehicles to most markets outside of North America," according to the Q3 earnings Shareholders Deck.
The Babylon Gigafactory has the capacity for three times as many units as Berlin and Texas, and even exceeds California's production capacity.
This is significant for longs because when the Communist Party falls, 6:00 PM Beijing time is 7:00 AM New York Time, and you won't like getting caught in the 1,000 point SPX gap down that the regime's collapse causes and what Wall Street does during that session as it runs for its life when everyone is caught off guard like they were when the USSR fell.
In my opinion, $108 in the last week of December was Tesla's bottom, evidenced by bounce back to $124 that happened Thursday and the strong weekly close to end the year.
However, for long-term Tesla bulls, this is a very bearish indicator, as evidenced on the monthly chart:
For long term bulls, you really do not want a stock to break a major 2-year-old bullish order block, which is exactly what Tesla did. It should maintain it and sharply reverse if there's to truly be another leg up.
There's a direct precedent for this principle on the Nasdaq NQ CME Futures, which did exactly this in March, had an impotent bounce, and has since not been bullish at all. Tech has just been a slaughter house with the exception a few days like November CPI.
Tesla gives you some greater clarity on the weekly candles:
What's strange about Tesla's price action is:
- The triple top at $315 before it started dumping. This becomes a big target on a reversal.
- The $414.50 ATH. Yes, this was pre-splits, but remember Elon is the guy who paid $54.20 a share for Twitter.
- Breakaway gap/liquidity void at $263.55. These also become targets once the algo and its MM have achieved their downside objectives.
In my opinion, Tesla on the hourly looks like a pretty solid reversal with the gap between $113 and $118 potentially being a breakaway gap.
Another big factor to consider is that the TSLL 1.5x leveraged bull ETF has fallen from $27~ to $6 during this bear run.
A very likely and rational target for this to retrace to when it does go in the other direction is $10. This is a lot of upside and makes for a heck of a trade. TSLL also traded at double its average volume literally three times last week, with 15 million shares being traded on Dec. 29.
Someone had to be the buyer on those trades and they didn't buy so it can go to $4 so easily.
So here's some potential scenarios:
1. Tesla is extremely bearish but will retrace anyways.
If this is the case then $160 is where it should go and it should get held back at the last green daily candle that peaked at $160.93. Either way, this is a pretty good long from the 120s.
2. Tesla has achieved its downside objective and MMs will target short seller funds' buy stops
This particular outcome I regard with a high degree of probability. If so, $330 is exactly where it will go before it will die. This is an amazing long.
3. Nasdaq is about to bounce to 15,000 and Tesla follows a huge bear market rally to perform a bump and run reversal to $420.20
I have reservations about the realism of this outcome, but I definitely believe it's a significant possibility between now and April if a genuine 2008-style market crash is en route for humanity in 2023.
Things that won't happen:
Tesla will not continue on to $500 with a new leg up. Frankly speaking, we're standing at the end of the good times.
It's up to you what you believe. One thing I know is that people don't believe in anything until they see it, and then they FOMO or get scared and give themselves regrets.
But what I want to say to all of you is: if you want a future you have to "practice social distancing" and "hand sanitizing" with the Chinese Communist Party and all of that Marxist atheism and evolution junk.
You need to return to tradition and come to understand that it's no less than the Divine side of the Cosmos our Earth is seated and rotating in that brings a future.
The Chinese Communist Party is a demon that was arranged to destroy the human race. Whoever can't see this are the greatest morons.
ノート
So, I get it. Everyone is told to hate Elon Musk and wants Tesla to fall to zero. That's great. But charts have to support it.1. First trading day of 2023 and you get a -12% downcandle that closes 19 cents under the 2022 low
2. One day later you get a 6% rally that retakes the low and the orderblock
This is indicative of manipulation targeting sell stops and a pretty big sign that short is very dangerous now.
I actually agree that $80 Tesla and less is incoming. But, I really do not think it is coming so easily and so quickly.
Was five straight months of red and a 2/3rds devaluation not enough for one wave down?
Isn't there a Warren Buffet quote about being fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful that everyone alleges to esteem so highly?
Food for thought.
ノート
Was a few days and a few dollars too early on the Tesla bottom, but indeed the first aim was achieved.Lol at all the socialists who hate Elon Musk (I'm not even a fan of his). Tesla is up 55+% since the first week of January, far outperforming Bitcoin.
Notable is the price action actually took out the $161 mitigation block.
Some kind of retrace heading into month end and Feb 1 FOMC is likely. Imo, it's a dip to buy and $200 is coming.
ノート
The Tesla/Musk trolls have been conspicuously silent, mostly because the public relations firm they sit in a cubicle at has had them on other tasks now that the pump started.Hard life for the guys who wanted the $85 gap right away.
$155 on Tesla in a retrace will be a huge buy.
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