Tesla Breakdown Alert: RSI Overbought + Bearish Divergence

TSLA Weekly Put Signal Summary

Direction: BUY PUTS (Short)

Confidence: 55% (Low conviction)

Strike Focus: $430.00

Expiry: 2025-12-12 (8 days)

Entry Range: $1.27–$1.29 (mid: $1.28)

Target 1: $2.54 (≈100% gain)

Target 2: $3.81 (≈200% gain)

Stop Loss: $0.76 (≈40% loss)

Position Size: 2% of portfolio (small due to low confidence)

Technical & Market Analysis

Katy AI Prediction: Downward movement from $453.85 → $435.44 (-4.1% predicted drop)

Weekly Momentum: Neutral (+0.07% 1W)

RSI: Overbought at 74.6 → suggests pullback possible

MACD: Bearish divergence detected → warning for reversal

Support / Resistance:

Resistance: $460.66 (stop loss level)

Support: $435.44 (Katy target)

Options & Flow Intel

Put/Call Ratio: 1.93 → strong bearish institutional positioning

High Volume: Protective $150 put activity noted

Max Pain: $452.50 → slightly below current price, aligns with downside bias

Risk Notes

Moderate risk due to low conviction + neutral composite score

Low volume may lead to whipsaw action

Tight stop recommended at $460.66 (breach invalidates bearish thesis)

💡 Key Takeaway:
This is a speculative bearish put setup based on Katy AI’s consistent short-term downward prediction. Only small position size is advised due to low confidence and moderate risk environment.