The End is Near or Here?
アップデート済
When I think of crashes, I always think of NSDQ100, not because it is the most important index -- it is not -- but because it is the most volatile of the top 3. Fundamentalist would use financial jargon to define a crash, but technicians, they think in abstraction because that's what price graphs are providing. So, in abstract, a crash would be a sudden full to the lower Bollinger Band of the 1W chart or beyond. This is because the 20 SMA of the weekly chart is a strong support, and any bull should be above it.
We currently stand on the weekly 20 SMA (can be checked in the weekly chart), that is we are at the crossroads. In this chart, I try to build a case for a crash that should come soon.
Let's clarify the chart a bit by breaking down its components:
Moreover, successive corrections cause the trend to bend, like the ones of last September and October where the reason it slowed down. We are currently facing successive corrections over short period of time. My forecast is that we will hit the trend line of the lower weekly Bollijnger Band soon, given the current momentum.
In short, the end mighnt not be here yet, but it's near. Nonetheless, specially when it comes to NSDQ100, an end is just a new beginning -- unless of course you lose all your money in the crash.
We currently stand on the weekly 20 SMA (can be checked in the weekly chart), that is we are at the crossroads. In this chart, I try to build a case for a crash that should come soon.
Let's clarify the chart a bit by breaking down its components:
- Trend lines: The most prominent lines in the chart connecting high trends, low trends, or both. They show the possible support levels in case of a further downward move.
- Fib Resistance Fan: The deviation away from the original trend. Currently, we are 3 channels downwards, which shows that the trend is ailing.
- Fib Circle: Indicates resistance where we are standing, which is why the market fell a little yesterday,
- Fib Spiral: Tracing both major corrections after the initial bull show resistance at the current level. This confirms the previous point and indicates strong resistance.
- Bollinger Bands: A squeeze usually indicates a major move. There's a squeeze and the correction was minor.
Moreover, successive corrections cause the trend to bend, like the ones of last September and October where the reason it slowed down. We are currently facing successive corrections over short period of time. My forecast is that we will hit the trend line of the lower weekly Bollijnger Band soon, given the current momentum.
In short, the end mighnt not be here yet, but it's near. Nonetheless, specially when it comes to NSDQ100, an end is just a new beginning -- unless of course you lose all your money in the crash.
ノート
As I expected 2 weeks ago, we are now south of the prominent support and heading to towars the lower Bolling Band of the 1W chart.
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