19 June 2021: DJIA(US30): Headed Down?

2021年6月19日

We have broken trend and started the strongest dip since late October. If the bear move picks up momentum, low 30Ks or even 30K is not out of the question, especially with DXY waxing bullish. if the top is really in at $35,102, the 0.786 ($31,487) needs to hold. If we lose the whole supply zone down to $30,551, 30K will be tested. I would expect a bounce in this vicinity, back to about $31,500 before a dip below 29K. The final stand for bulls would come at $28,650. It's difficult to imagine US30 losing much more than the previous high, and sideways/upward motion should resume here, at the latest. Best guess at the lowest bottom: $29,184.

Depending on the speed of the bubble pop, the move down to this final bottom could take all summer, give or take. Once the spring pops on DXY, the move should be sharp, like it was over the past few days, but level out for a gentler, final descent. There could be a small, short-term bounce in the next week. Bull case has it bouncing no lower than the 0.786 and perhaps as high as the 0.886 before resuming upward trajectory.

2021年6月25日

ノート

If I'm right, this anticipated bounce we've experienced in the past week should be maxing out any moment. I expect it to stop in or just below the top of the distribution phase at approx. $34,800:



Worst case, it wicks to 35k. Setting a new high would reset my outlook to neutral until it's clearly either a double top, or a bullish continuation.

EDIT: "[S]upply" in original caption of 19 June should have read "demand."

2021年7月2日

ノート

Any time now, and probably next week before a correction starts. Bearish divergences appearing on the 1H.

2021年8月30日

ノート

If Congress would quit making money printer go 'BRRR', I think we would have seen a real break by now. As it is, still waiting, grinding out new highs.

2021年9月25日

ノート

This turnover is taking much longer than anticipating, but might finally be coming to pass. Another rejection around 35k will be telling.

2021年10月1日

ノート

Correction: the above should read "anticipated*, not "anticipating."

Still in a holding pattern. The upward trend may resume when/if(?) Congress raises the debt limit, but a correction is still due.

2021年10月17日

ノート

The day after the U.S. Congress kicked the can down the road, the spring upward began. However, we still have not reached the previous ATH ($35,630), and bearish divs are appearing on the 1H chart as we hit the 1.618 Fib. extension ($35,313).

Hard to see a hard crash prior to the next deadline (Dec. 3rd), especially after all the sideways action in the last few months, but a clear direction has not yet been made. Easier to see a new ATH pending on the 1D, with week's opening projection on the 1D chart posted here.

Though a new ATH is likely in the next few days, the trend is likely still sideways for the time being. December may be telling.

(1H)
(1D)

2021年10月21日

ノート

Took three days, and the wicks made for a better entry/exit, but the candle bodies were spot on:

Might have done better with further Fib. extensions on lower time frames.