As an Aussie investor with a lot of securities denominated in USD (US markets, Gold), and with brokerage paying an extra 1% on USD (4.3%) vs AUD (3.3%) on cash balances, managing my exposure to the USD has a meaningul impact on the portfolio’s performance.
in this chart, I use a combination of Ehlers’ adaptive indicators, volatility bands and 100-week moving average to assess probability of upside/downside so I can increase or lighten my USD exposure.
At the end of March, I see 5.4% downside vs 2.5% upside, and support around 1.42, resistance at 1.55.
Therefore I will sell 1/3 of my USDAUD position to reduce risk, and look to reenter next month closer to 1.42 assuming support holds.
in this chart, I use a combination of Ehlers’ adaptive indicators, volatility bands and 100-week moving average to assess probability of upside/downside so I can increase or lighten my USD exposure.
At the end of March, I see 5.4% downside vs 2.5% upside, and support around 1.42, resistance at 1.55.
Therefore I will sell 1/3 of my USDAUD position to reduce risk, and look to reenter next month closer to 1.42 assuming support holds.