USDCAD 1.3198 – Short-term bearish – Below triangle support opens the key 1.3154/1.3116 support zone
USDCAD has been coiling within an 8-week rising channel while reaching the 1.3352 multi-year high (August 25, 2015) which is beneath the significant 61.8% of the 1.6184/0.9056 (2002 peak/2007 trough) fall at 1.3459.
The pair showed weakness lately, testing below the 4-week symmetrical triangle and rising channel supports (as shown on the 240min chart). While the intraday indicators are oversold, it is possible for bounces back to the triangle to relieve the oversold condition.
The key is to see if the pair is able to break down decisively below the 1.3154/1.3116 support zone (9/1 September lows) to confirm the topping pattern breakdown and extend lower towards 1.2951 (August 12, 2015 low).
However, failure to breakdown would imply basing. Back above the 1.3310 area (September 11, 2015 high) would shift the focus back to the 1.3352 peak. Above the latter would resume the long-term uptrend towards 1.3393 (June 7, 2004 low) ahead of the 1.3459 (61.8% retracement).
Outlook:
Intraday: bearish
Daily: neutral
Weekly: bullish
USDCAD has been coiling within an 8-week rising channel while reaching the 1.3352 multi-year high (August 25, 2015) which is beneath the significant 61.8% of the 1.6184/0.9056 (2002 peak/2007 trough) fall at 1.3459.
The pair showed weakness lately, testing below the 4-week symmetrical triangle and rising channel supports (as shown on the 240min chart). While the intraday indicators are oversold, it is possible for bounces back to the triangle to relieve the oversold condition.
The key is to see if the pair is able to break down decisively below the 1.3154/1.3116 support zone (9/1 September lows) to confirm the topping pattern breakdown and extend lower towards 1.2951 (August 12, 2015 low).
However, failure to breakdown would imply basing. Back above the 1.3310 area (September 11, 2015 high) would shift the focus back to the 1.3352 peak. Above the latter would resume the long-term uptrend towards 1.3393 (June 7, 2004 low) ahead of the 1.3459 (61.8% retracement).
Outlook:
Intraday: bearish
Daily: neutral
Weekly: bullish
