Wave analysis on USDCHF

7月22日

Chart Analysis

H1 Chart:

• Elliot Wave:
• The chart indicates the formation of waves within the Elliot Wave structure. We see the completion of waves (i) and (ii) with an ongoing development of wave iii.
• Wave (ii) correction appears to have completed, implying the start of wave iii downwards.
• Potential target for wave iii could be the 50% Fibonacci level around 0.8800.
• MACD:
• The MACD shows a bearish momentum with the histogram moving into the negative territory and the MACD line crossing below the signal line.
• RSI:
• The RSI is around 38.47, indicating a bearish momentum but not yet in the oversold territory.

H4 Chart:

• Elliot Wave:
• The H4 chart presents a broader perspective with the ongoing formation of the third wave (iii) of a larger degree.
• After wave (ii), there is an apparent ABC correction with wave (c) completing just below 0.90506 (76.0% Fibonacci level).
• Currently, the formation of wave (i) is ongoing, indicating further downward movement after minor corrections.
• MACD:
• The MACD indicates strong bearish momentum with the histogram in deep negative and MACD line significantly below the signal line.
• RSI:
• The RSI is at 25.94, suggesting an oversold condition which may precede a minor upward correction before the continuation of the downtrend.

Daily Chart:

• Elliot Wave:
• The daily chart indicates a larger degree wave 1 down is completed, and wave 2 is an ongoing correction.
• After the completion of wave 2, wave 3 of the higher degree downtrend appears to be forming.
• This wave structure suggests a long-term bearish outlook with key levels around 0.85466 (23.6% Fibonacci level) and potentially lower towards 0.83251.
• MACD:
• The MACD line is well below the signal line, confirming the bearish trend continuation on a daily scale.
• RSI:
• The RSI on the daily chart is at 34.09, indicating that while the pair is bearish, it is approaching oversold levels, suggesting possible minor corrections.

Summary and Implications:

1. Short-Term (H1): The bearish momentum is likely to continue with potential corrections towards 0.88490 (wave iv) before further drops.
2. Medium-Term (H4): The broader wave (iii) is developing, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend after minor corrections. Watching for breaks below 0.8800.
3. Long-Term (Daily): The long-term outlook remains bearish with the development of wave 3, indicating substantial downward movement towards 0.85466 and potentially lower.

Trading Strategy:

• Short Positions: Favorable at the completion of minor corrections, particularly around 0.88490 and 0.89770 (61.8% Fibonacci on H4).
• Risk Management: Use tight stop losses above recent highs, considering the volatility and oversold RSI conditions which may lead to short-term pullbacks.
• Profit Targets: Set targets around key Fibonacci levels, such as 0.8800, 0.85466, and potentially 0.83251 for long-term trades.

This analysis highlights a predominantly bearish outlook for USDCHF with opportunities for both short and long-term trades based on Elliot Wave patterns, MACD, and RSI indicators.