USDJPY - Potential Volatility Alert

一昨日

Those of you that follow USDJPY and yen crosses in general, know how quickly they can change direction within a short time frame, especially when there are big event drivers like the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions scheduled within 12 hours of each other.

That is the case tonight, with the Fed interest rate decision released at 1900 GMT and the BoJ interest rate decision released early on Thursday morning at 0300 GMT. Current market expectations are for the Fed to cut 25bp (0.25%) and for BoJ to remain unchanged, potentially holding off on a further rate hike until early 2025. However, there is always the chance that either central bank produces a surprise which may increase FX market volatility.

Also, in play are the comments from Fed Chairman Powell in the press conference which starts at 1930 GMT on Wednesday. There is some nervousness amongst traders surrounding what Fed policymakers may signal regarding the pace of rate cuts during 2025, given how strong the US economic data readings have been recently.

Similarly, the comments of BoJ Governor Ueda regarding inflation, strength of the Japanese economy, and future rate hikes, are also important when he speaks in the BoJ press conference which starts at 0630 GMT on Thursday.

USDJPY – Potential Chart Levels to Watch

Clearly, the reaction to the Fed and BoJ announcements may have significant implications for USDJPY. As such, you should be aware of the potential for greater volatility which can increase risks for any open positions during these uncertain periods. 

The reaction to the announcements may see swift changes in direction of price and sharp reversals of previous activity. Reduction of position sizes and more proactive placement of stops maybe required over this period. 

With that in mind, we want to look at possible support and resistance levels traders may be focusing on, up to and over these decisions. 

Resistance Points to Watch 

Having established a low of 148.64 on December 3rd a recovery period has developed, seeing USDJPY push up to 1 month highs of 154.48 (December 16th high) at the start of this week.



A possible positive development within this move higher has been the closing break above the Bollinger mid-average (currently at 152.09). This average can often act as a resistance level while falling within a downtrend in price, so the break higher above this line last week, and the mid-average changing direction from declining to flat, may reflect a potential short term momentum shift.

Next resistance levels could now be marked by the November 20th session high of 155.89, or even 156.75, which was the November monthly upside extreme. Closing breaks of these levels, if seen, while not a guarantee of future upside, may be a sign of further price strength towards the July 3rd high of 161.95,

Support Levels 

With any potential reaction to either the Fed or BoJ announcements providing the possibility for a swift reversal of recent upside USDJPY strength, we must be aware of some support levels. 



The first support focus may be the Bollinger mid-average we discussed earlier at 152.09. Interestingly, this level is very similar to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the December recovery, which stands at 152.15. So, breaks below this area could be a trigger for a more extended phase of USDJPY weakness. 

If the break lower was to occur, it may open the possibility of a test of the deeper 61.8 retracement level at 150.79, or even a further move towards 148.63, which is the December monthly low, although this will only be determined by future price action and is in no way guaranteed.

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