This second chart of USDJPY shows its movements from 2012 to 2016 so far.
A basic tenet of technical analysis is that "history repeats itself". My hypothesis is that USDJPY moves in 2012-2016 are similar to its moves in 1995-1997. The current down move in USDJPY will end at around 107.00-30, from which it shall reverse up strongly in coming months to well above 140.00, just like it did in 1997-1998.
The low at 75.50 in 2012 was the start of the current big up trend. The high of 125.80 in 2015 was wave(3). Thereafter until now, it has been doing a wave(4) correction. In 1997, wave(4) retraced 38.2% of wave(3). I believe the current wave(4) will also bottom out near its 38.2% retracement around 107.20.
Once the wave(4) is completed, the initial reversal to start wave(5) will be powerful. The eventual peak for wave(5) could be well above 140.00 over 12-18 months.
A basic tenet of technical analysis is that "history repeats itself". My hypothesis is that USDJPY moves in 2012-2016 are similar to its moves in 1995-1997. The current down move in USDJPY will end at around 107.00-30, from which it shall reverse up strongly in coming months to well above 140.00, just like it did in 1997-1998.
The low at 75.50 in 2012 was the start of the current big up trend. The high of 125.80 in 2015 was wave(3). Thereafter until now, it has been doing a wave(4) correction. In 1997, wave(4) retraced 38.2% of wave(3). I believe the current wave(4) will also bottom out near its 38.2% retracement around 107.20.
Once the wave(4) is completed, the initial reversal to start wave(5) will be powerful. The eventual peak for wave(5) could be well above 140.00 over 12-18 months.
