USD/JPY Resistance
Turn-around in USDJPY after the sizable sell-off continued through this week's open.
Been a lot of remarks about how much of the carry trade has unwound, with one major bank saying first 50% had been unwound, and then 75%.
Since FX is de-centralized, coming up with an accurate statistic here could be challenging as that level of data does not exist. The best they could've used was a sample of some sort but, from the chart below a different argument can be made.
The trend in USD/JPY began shortly after the 2021 open. The Fed didn't begin hiking rates until March of 2022 but markets aren't usually one to wait around, and as US inflation pushed higher in 2021 we can see the USD/JPY pair starting to incline.
At this point, 23.6% of that move has been retraced - and that retracement level has helped to set resistance so far after the bounce this week.
There's a couple of important levels above that: The 150 psychological level, followed by the 151.95/152 level that was defended by the BoJ back in Q4 of 2022. This then became support after their late-April intervention and then again after the 160.00 intervention on July 11th.
- js
Been a lot of remarks about how much of the carry trade has unwound, with one major bank saying first 50% had been unwound, and then 75%.
Since FX is de-centralized, coming up with an accurate statistic here could be challenging as that level of data does not exist. The best they could've used was a sample of some sort but, from the chart below a different argument can be made.
The trend in USD/JPY began shortly after the 2021 open. The Fed didn't begin hiking rates until March of 2022 but markets aren't usually one to wait around, and as US inflation pushed higher in 2021 we can see the USD/JPY pair starting to incline.
At this point, 23.6% of that move has been retraced - and that retracement level has helped to set resistance so far after the bounce this week.
There's a couple of important levels above that: The 150 psychological level, followed by the 151.95/152 level that was defended by the BoJ back in Q4 of 2022. This then became support after their late-April intervention and then again after the 160.00 intervention on July 11th.
- js
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