Confirmed channel break

2022年2月17日

The rand has pulled the pair below the upward blue channel and I'm prepared to call for a confirmed channel break. The pair is however trading in oversold ranges which could add some strength to the psychological support rate of 15.00 and 14.88. Over the slightly longer-term, I'm expecting the rand to pull the pair to 14.50 (61.8% fibo retracement rate). A close above 15.65 will however invalidate this expected move. The 50-day MA, currently at 15.52, will also be a strong resistance rate for dollar gains.

Fundamentally the commodity cycle is still on a rampaging bull run which is rand positive. Platinum currently sitting well above 11050/OZ and heading higher towards the 2021 high of 1105/oz.

2022年2月25日

ノート

The rand had a though day yesterday following the Russia news but boy I did not expect risk assets to bounce back as hard as they are doing now.
The usdzar pair failed to close yesterday's volatile session above the blue channel (which now serves as a resistance) and it seems as if the 50-day MA is holding its ground.
I expect the rand to pull the pair lower where it will re-test the 200-day MA support rate of 14.92. A daily close above the 50-day MA will however invalidate this expected move.

2022年3月2日

ノート

The 50-day MA has capped the rand's losses this week but the pair gapped up at market to open above this critical resistance rate (15.40). Seems like the pair may attempt to creep back into the upward blue channel. Looks like was wrong about the channel break, but let's see how the markets react to Powell tomorrow and Friday's NFP's