USOIL Short Trade Idea – Targeting $55.05 from $61.00

Entry Point: ~61.00 USD

Stop Loss (SL): 64.77 USD

Target (TP): 55.05 USD

Risk/Reward Ratio: Favorable

Risk: ~3.77 USD

Reward: ~5.95 USD

Approximate R/R ratio: 1:1.58

🧠 Strategy Insight
Trend Context:

Prior to the entry zone, price shows a strong downtrend.

The price retraced upward into a resistance zone (highlighted in purple).

The setup suggests a short position anticipating rejection from this zone.

Indicators:

Moving Averages (red & blue):
Likely 50 EMA and 200 EMA showing bearish alignment (price mostly under both).

Resistance Zone:
The purple shaded region represents a supply zone, where price previously reversed.

Entry Zone Analysis:

Entry just below a recent rejection candle.

It's a conservative spot to catch a move back in the direction of the dominant trend.

Target Zone (55.05):

Likely based on a recent support level or demand zone from earlier price action.

Matches previous lows.

🔁 Possible Scenarios
✅ Bearish Scenario (Ideal Outcome):
Price gets rejected from the resistance zone and continues the downtrend toward the target at 55.05.

❌ Bullish Scenario (Risk):
Price breaks above 61.00 and continues toward 64.77, invalidating the short setup.