I will explain in this post why I'm not trading oil in the following 1 month.
The explanation is simple:
1. I don't want to enter a long trade because we are too late in this rally since the mid of Feb. Sooner or later we are having an intermediate correction and I simply cannot predict this late we are going up first to 55$ - in a shorter daily cycle- or going down to 40$.
We might be printed the DCL yesterday - at the 100 EMA just like the at the 1st daily cycle low - and when stocks breaking to new highs next week oil will break up to 55-60$. But there is no guarantee for this and we are late in this rally to chase the price.
2. I don't want to enter a short trade because as you saw we broke down the triangle on Thursday there was no strong follow through. So if we start to go down to the ICL this decline will not be a steep decline. Just a slow whipsawing move which would wear me out. And this move might be only 3-4 $...
We will find better place for our money in the next month.
So the plan is the following for the next month:
I would like to short oil from 55-60 $ in the next 2 weeks if it pops or would like to enter a long at 40$ in the next 4-6 weeks.
The explanation is simple:
1. I don't want to enter a long trade because we are too late in this rally since the mid of Feb. Sooner or later we are having an intermediate correction and I simply cannot predict this late we are going up first to 55$ - in a shorter daily cycle- or going down to 40$.
We might be printed the DCL yesterday - at the 100 EMA just like the at the 1st daily cycle low - and when stocks breaking to new highs next week oil will break up to 55-60$. But there is no guarantee for this and we are late in this rally to chase the price.
2. I don't want to enter a short trade because as you saw we broke down the triangle on Thursday there was no strong follow through. So if we start to go down to the ICL this decline will not be a steep decline. Just a slow whipsawing move which would wear me out. And this move might be only 3-4 $...
We will find better place for our money in the next month.
So the plan is the following for the next month:
I would like to short oil from 55-60 $ in the next 2 weeks if it pops or would like to enter a long at 40$ in the next 4-6 weeks.
コメント:
Now you see why I didn't want to short oil...
