Bearish Storm Incoming: Will USOIL Collapse to $67?
アップデート済
Key Observations
Current Strong High & Invalidation Point (70.34):
Marked as Wave 0 and serves as the critical level for invalidating any bearish outlook. If this level is breached, it may signal the continuation of the bullish trend.
Primary Distribution Structure:
The chart is showcasing Wyckoff Distribution with the following features:
Preliminary Supply (PSY): Initial reaction around 69.19 indicates buyers were overwhelmed.
Buying Climax (BC): A peak at the liquidity level (approx. 70.34), marking the point of institutional distribution.
Automatic Reaction (AR): Subsequent pullback leading to the initial range.
Liquidity Traps:
Inducement: Highlighted above the fake breakout line around 69.35, trapping retail traders who anticipated a breakout higher.
Liquidity Pool: Formation of equal lows near 68.00 suggests stops are building, acting as a magnet for price.
Supply Zones and Key Areas:
Bearish Order Block (OB): Around 69.35, which aligns with the Point of Control (POC) on the Volume Profile. This zone may act as a resistance for price action.
Support Line - AR Distribution: Near 68.88, which aligns with the low-volume node on the profile, indicating minimal institutional activity in this zone.
Projected Elliott Wave Count:
Current count suggests we are heading into Wave 5 of the bearish cycle.
Wave 3: Shows impulsive price action, which broke through liquidity.
Wave 4: Retracement has hit resistance within the supply zone.
Wave 5 Targets: Potential targets are around 67.42-66.91, which aligns with historical liquidity levels.
Creek Formation:
The Creek Line indicates minimal resistance in the current path, where a low-resistance liquidity run (LRLR) may accelerate momentum to the downside.
Volume Profile Insight:
The Point of Control (POC) resides at 69.22, suggesting that most transactions have occurred here. This level aligns with the AR zone, which could act as a decisive battleground.
Potential Scenarios
Bearish Scenario (Primary):
Price fails to sustain above the Bearish OB (69.35) and breaks below the AR line at 68.88.
Wave 5 completes at the liquidity pool levels between 67.42-66.91.
Bullish Scenario (Alternate):
A sharp breakout above the invalid point (70.34) confirms the strength of the buyers and invalidates Wave 5 projections. This would signal a transition from distribution to an accumulation phase.
Current Strong High & Invalidation Point (70.34):
Marked as Wave 0 and serves as the critical level for invalidating any bearish outlook. If this level is breached, it may signal the continuation of the bullish trend.
Primary Distribution Structure:
The chart is showcasing Wyckoff Distribution with the following features:
Preliminary Supply (PSY): Initial reaction around 69.19 indicates buyers were overwhelmed.
Buying Climax (BC): A peak at the liquidity level (approx. 70.34), marking the point of institutional distribution.
Automatic Reaction (AR): Subsequent pullback leading to the initial range.
Liquidity Traps:
Inducement: Highlighted above the fake breakout line around 69.35, trapping retail traders who anticipated a breakout higher.
Liquidity Pool: Formation of equal lows near 68.00 suggests stops are building, acting as a magnet for price.
Supply Zones and Key Areas:
Bearish Order Block (OB): Around 69.35, which aligns with the Point of Control (POC) on the Volume Profile. This zone may act as a resistance for price action.
Support Line - AR Distribution: Near 68.88, which aligns with the low-volume node on the profile, indicating minimal institutional activity in this zone.
Projected Elliott Wave Count:
Current count suggests we are heading into Wave 5 of the bearish cycle.
Wave 3: Shows impulsive price action, which broke through liquidity.
Wave 4: Retracement has hit resistance within the supply zone.
Wave 5 Targets: Potential targets are around 67.42-66.91, which aligns with historical liquidity levels.
Creek Formation:
The Creek Line indicates minimal resistance in the current path, where a low-resistance liquidity run (LRLR) may accelerate momentum to the downside.
Volume Profile Insight:
The Point of Control (POC) resides at 69.22, suggesting that most transactions have occurred here. This level aligns with the AR zone, which could act as a decisive battleground.
Potential Scenarios
Bearish Scenario (Primary):
Price fails to sustain above the Bearish OB (69.35) and breaks below the AR line at 68.88.
Wave 5 completes at the liquidity pool levels between 67.42-66.91.
Bullish Scenario (Alternate):
A sharp breakout above the invalid point (70.34) confirms the strength of the buyers and invalidates Wave 5 projections. This would signal a transition from distribution to an accumulation phase.
トレード稼働中
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トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達
Do you see the current USOIL setup as a valid Wyckoff Distribution? Where do you think Wave 5 might terminate?ノート
ノート
🚨 Monday Trading Plan Update: "Patience is Key" 🚨
📅 Objective: Gain clarity by observing Monday's price action and the daily close.
🌟 Plan Breakdown
🛑 Sit-Out Mode (Main Strategy)
Mondays often bring choppy, unclear moves. By waiting for the daily close, we can spot:
Where key levels are forming.
How price reacts to these levels.
When to position for high-probability setups.
🎯 Scalp Option (For the Brave)
If you must trade, stick to small, low-risk scalps. Use high-confluence setups and tight risk management.
🔍 Why This Approach?
💡 "Not trading is also trading."
Avoid unnecessary losses from impatience.
Prepare for higher-quality setups later in the week.
Start the week with a clear and disciplined mindset.
📊 What to Observe Today:
Key levels and reactions.
Sentiment from market participants.
Volatility and range for the week.
💎 Key Takeaway
"Trading is a marathon, not a sprint." Starting your week with patience helps you trade smarter and align with your strategy.
Let's stay sharp, observe the market, and prepare for the opportunities ahead. 💪
ノート
If you could master one trading skill this year, what would it be?ノート
How do you stay focused and motivated during periods of drawdown?ノート
📊 End of Day Thoughts
Today’s market showed a lot of indecision, with price consolidating around key levels. For me, it was a reminder that waiting for clarity is just as important as taking trades. Tomorrow, I’ll be watchingfor potential setups
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