XAGUSD vs XAGCAD? More important than you might think.
アップデート済
I have been looking at XAGUSD vs XAGCAD, with the theory that the relative performance of the pairs could be a signal. In this scenario, CAD should be thought of as a proxy for commodities, of which Silver is just one. The USD is acting as a measure of the wider economy, and the role Silver plays in it.
Starting with the long term then, some general notes. The CAD (main chart) persistently pegs more closely to the price of silver, as you might expect. It has lower highs, and higher lows. Priced in Silver, CAD is less volatile. USD on the other hand, fluctuates above and below this line, with important potential observations. Notice the considerable difference between the two charts today, a potential for catch up is coming?
We can see highlighted important regions. In green, the 2011 Silver and commodity bull market. Silver in USD significantly outperformed, more detail on that later. In red, we see the 2011 to 2020 bear market. Significant under performance of silver is highlighted. We will see some more detail of that in a bit as well, as there are some important differences today. Finally, the period today is highlighted, which appears to be under performed. More on that later.
Next, let's get more into the thesis. Here is the consolidation phase of the 2008 bear market. We see persistent and significant out performance, almost without exception from where you set the time scale. The difference grows to as much as 30% in several parts, all before the real bull market begins. Most of this can be seen around $25, which was the previous interim top from 2006.
The Silver Bull Market. The growth in XAGUSD continues throughout the process. The top in this cycle is amazingly formed as CAD reaches it's highest point in 40 years vs the USD, in April of 2011. Two months later, the CAD begins it's 30% retreat to the twenty year lows. Measured from December 2008, the performance of XAGUSD peaks in the region of +100% vs XAGCAD (This depends on the start and end date of course).
The Crash; Although not obvious initially, the XAGUSD Line dips below XAGCAD and stays below, which seems to confirm this bear market. This limits this relationship for picking tops, I admit.
The bear market 2011 to 2016. I've highlighted how the market consistently fails to outperform XAGUSD vs XAGCAD. Even during the 'Bull' run of 2016, there is only a brief, 3 month period where it is even possible to show out performance of XAGUSD, from Nov 2015 to Mar 2016. Move the chart and see for yourself. This signal is squashed even before the bull market begins, which could have been a warning sign as XAGUSD failed to break out relative to XAGCAD.
2016 to 2020. A mixed signal? The consolidation of 2016 to 2020 was mixed, there was no clear under performance, but neither did it outperform. Using the full consolidation phase, we cannot see a breakout today.
Today; While no breakout is clear, there are perhaps signs this has changed with this current phase. From the March lows, we can now see Silver in USD is clearly outpacing Silver in CAD, although not yet by as much as in the 2008-2011 cycle.
This could mean either;
Takeaways; Look for this comparison to breakout to the upside 20 to 30 points, which could then continue for months to years. A spike in the USD is not out of the cards as always, and would be negative for this relationship. If XAGUSD remained neutral in that scenario, I would be very bullish however. This relationship currently has about 10% cushion to allow that without dropping XAGUSD below XAGCAD. A spike in the USD driving this ratio down would also need to persist for several months to indicate this is not Silver's time. Top in the relationship should be formed by a significant high in the CAD.
Starting with the long term then, some general notes. The CAD (main chart) persistently pegs more closely to the price of silver, as you might expect. It has lower highs, and higher lows. Priced in Silver, CAD is less volatile. USD on the other hand, fluctuates above and below this line, with important potential observations. Notice the considerable difference between the two charts today, a potential for catch up is coming?
We can see highlighted important regions. In green, the 2011 Silver and commodity bull market. Silver in USD significantly outperformed, more detail on that later. In red, we see the 2011 to 2020 bear market. Significant under performance of silver is highlighted. We will see some more detail of that in a bit as well, as there are some important differences today. Finally, the period today is highlighted, which appears to be under performed. More on that later.
Next, let's get more into the thesis. Here is the consolidation phase of the 2008 bear market. We see persistent and significant out performance, almost without exception from where you set the time scale. The difference grows to as much as 30% in several parts, all before the real bull market begins. Most of this can be seen around $25, which was the previous interim top from 2006.
The Silver Bull Market. The growth in XAGUSD continues throughout the process. The top in this cycle is amazingly formed as CAD reaches it's highest point in 40 years vs the USD, in April of 2011. Two months later, the CAD begins it's 30% retreat to the twenty year lows. Measured from December 2008, the performance of XAGUSD peaks in the region of +100% vs XAGCAD (This depends on the start and end date of course).
The Crash; Although not obvious initially, the XAGUSD Line dips below XAGCAD and stays below, which seems to confirm this bear market. This limits this relationship for picking tops, I admit.
The bear market 2011 to 2016. I've highlighted how the market consistently fails to outperform XAGUSD vs XAGCAD. Even during the 'Bull' run of 2016, there is only a brief, 3 month period where it is even possible to show out performance of XAGUSD, from Nov 2015 to Mar 2016. Move the chart and see for yourself. This signal is squashed even before the bull market begins, which could have been a warning sign as XAGUSD failed to break out relative to XAGCAD.
2016 to 2020. A mixed signal? The consolidation of 2016 to 2020 was mixed, there was no clear under performance, but neither did it outperform. Using the full consolidation phase, we cannot see a breakout today.
Today; While no breakout is clear, there are perhaps signs this has changed with this current phase. From the March lows, we can now see Silver in USD is clearly outpacing Silver in CAD, although not yet by as much as in the 2008-2011 cycle.
This could mean either;
- The signal is registering a false breakout. Although unlike the 2016 and earlier interim tops, this out performance has lasted almost a full year. Something that has not happened since 2008.
- We are still in the early stages of this bull market. Look for this comparison to breakout with a 20 to 30 point difference. This is not hard to see as possible, considering how far XAGUSD needs to catch up just to where XAGCAD is today. And considering that when it does, it tends to overshoot, this could be further confirmation that this party has just started.
Takeaways; Look for this comparison to breakout to the upside 20 to 30 points, which could then continue for months to years. A spike in the USD is not out of the cards as always, and would be negative for this relationship. If XAGUSD remained neutral in that scenario, I would be very bullish however. This relationship currently has about 10% cushion to allow that without dropping XAGUSD below XAGCAD. A spike in the USD driving this ratio down would also need to persist for several months to indicate this is not Silver's time. Top in the relationship should be formed by a significant high in the CAD.
ノート
Feb 19th. Looking good! Difference is now in the range of 40% measured from the March bottom. This is the range I'd expect the bull market to continue under. We will see though. We are currently in a price holding pattern, but with a considerable edge to XAGGUSD. Looking for this to power higher now with XAGCAD lagging.
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