Brazilian Real Gold PEG finalizing in Mid-October...?
コメント:
According to my technical analysis from mid October there must happen something to the gold price related to the emerging markets currencies.
1. Either they lock into the ratio they stand at whilst cossing mid October, and keep that pattern long time ahead.
2. Or the currencies will inflate in relation to gold whilst cossing mid October, and keep that pattern long time ahead.
3. Or the currencies will deflate in relation to gold whilst cossing mid October, and keep that pattern long time ahead.
I believe the most probable thing is for all of the emerging markets move move the same way (1,2 or 3). And that they will choose option 1. So when the gold price raise in USD the emering market currencies will deflate the same amount. And so from the perspective of USD the emerging markets will seem to plummet, when in actuallity that's just a response to the gold pegged currency. And also I believe that Argentina will fial to follow this and simply fall into hyperinflation like Venezuela.
1. Either they lock into the ratio they stand at whilst cossing mid October, and keep that pattern long time ahead.
2. Or the currencies will inflate in relation to gold whilst cossing mid October, and keep that pattern long time ahead.
3. Or the currencies will deflate in relation to gold whilst cossing mid October, and keep that pattern long time ahead.
I believe the most probable thing is for all of the emerging markets move move the same way (1,2 or 3). And that they will choose option 1. So when the gold price raise in USD the emering market currencies will deflate the same amount. And so from the perspective of USD the emerging markets will seem to plummet, when in actuallity that's just a response to the gold pegged currency. And also I believe that Argentina will fial to follow this and simply fall into hyperinflation like Venezuela.