Gold's Glide to New Heights: Tracking the Rally Amidst Inflation

4月8日

This week's contemplation on gold witnessed a continuation of its strong bullish trend, which was bolstered by last week's ADP and NFP data—every day marked new historic highs. The market opened this week with a drop followed by a surge, reaching a fresh historic peak at $2354, directly challenging the upper bound of the short-term uptrend channel.

Reflecting on last week's chart movements, a notable price bracket between $2291 and $2260 has emerged as a decisive range. Both Wednesday and Friday presented price actions that dipped before climbing higher.

Currently, gold is experiencing significant weekly trends with daily fluctuations easily reaching $35.
Post-NFP, the market is digesting the data, with Tuesday and Wednesday poised for higher volatility.

The upcoming CPI data will play a crucial role in determining whether the market can maintain its upward trajectory.

From a data perspective, gold has moved $292.29
in just 96 trading days of 2024—a substantial fluctuation when compared to the past five years.

Trading Thoughts:
Following the trend, I would consider long positions from dips, eschewing pullback buys due to their reduced referential value in wide-ranging volatility. Key levels to watch for entries include $2277, $2255, $2222, and $2134.

Regarding the larger cycle's weekly channel and bullish chart patterns,

potential market reference points range between $2463 and $2414, with an eye on the trend line near $2475. However, these are merely future reference points. For those contemplating short positions, it would be prudent to wait for a reversal behavior, a break below the trend line, or the formation of lower highs before entering short trades, as calculating a reasonable stop-loss position for shorts is challenging at present.