Buying order engaged / #1,990.80 - #1,992.80 is Targeted

2022年4月13日

Gold's general commentary: Price-action is ranged to it’s maximum as my Higher limit projection is still intact (#1,992.80 extension). As discussed, Gold is ranged within Lower High’s and Higher High’s. At the moment, Gold is Buying every Low and Selling every High sequence (classic Investment bank strategy) and should now respect Buying phase ahead and then price in Medium-term correction. Once more DX was being utilized as a safe-haven as the equity markets and Bond Yields suffered significant losses and capital is taken away from Bond Yields into riskier assets. It is important to note that Building Permits reading aswell (lately) fell to Lowest since October #2020 Year, missing the estimates by large number, which should push DX downwards, where Gold should benefit, however Investors Selling Russian Ruble, converting to U.S. Dollar most likely made DX shine again, holding multi-Month High's. However as before, I am making use of the DX as my key correlating asset (remember that correlation can shift even on Daily basis) to suggest the underlying trend for Gold, which remains Bullish (at least for current session) as DX made a solid Technical Higher High's throughout today's session and still didn't rebounded strongly, assisted aswell by Fundamental announcements. I expect today’s session Wall Street opening to just maintain Buying momentum both on DX and Gold, so that by Friday (my Monday’s #5 sessions limit projection), Gold can return to at least #1,992.80 sequence in extension. I am still assured that Gold is critically Bearish on the Medium-term. No strategy shift so far needed. Weekly chart is still Selling on most MA’s.


Technical analysis: Despite the healthy uptrend on DX and Usd-Jpy (pair Bought the dip and currently Trading at # +0.67%) mentioned Gap fill upwards and instant recovery (DX still on positive candles merely on # +0.15%), Gold has managed to consolidate the gains throughout early E.U. session and enter the #1,980’s Hourly 4 chart's first Resistance zone. This is the Bullish extension of the Lower High's sequence within the Daily chart’s Ascending Channel. It is important to note that #1,992.80 benchmark wasn’t broken throughout second recovery attempt and rejected the Price-action Intra-day (similar to previous Buying sequence), limiting the uptrend since late #Q1 fractal. The Hourly 4 chart is approaching Bearish RSI levels for the first time in #3 weeks, which indicates Bearish pullback and Selling sustainability on the Short-term once the DX enters stabilization zone. In my opinion #1,992.80 is the furthest Buying extension and my plan is to await test of my Target and expect an semi-pullback, Sell as Higher as I can towards #1,900’s, as better Selling opportunity lies near that Price-action. If however #1,958.80 Support cluster breaks firstly, my outlook is invalidated as will be expecting new Selling accumulation towards #1,935.80 - #1,937.80, but that scenario remains less possible at the moment, at least for current session. I am still assured that Gold is Bearish on Medium-term also with evident Descending Channel formation on bigger charts. If I had to take a guess about today’s session, personally I expect more Bullish action as U.S. opening Bell approaches. Candle closing below #1,970.80 configuration constitutes Bearish bias on the aftermath.


My position: Even though Gold delivers many reversal signs, I still believe that #1,992.80 should be met within current Trading week's borders. I engaged my Buying order with #1,968.80 entry point, Targeting #1,992.80 in extension. If #1,980.80 breaks, filling #1,992.80 Intra-day remains an strong possibility. #1,958.80 Support negates Buying bias regarding current session.