ショート

MQP PRESENTS - MY AMERICAN DREAM 3.6, 1G CONTINUATION

アップデート済

HEADER - 3.5 forecast has held PERFECT LAST 3 DAYS, I HAVE NO CONFIDENCE THAT WILL CONTINUE.

SUMMARY - Price action is fact, and facts have changed.

DETAILS - First, replay 1G from DECEMBER 1ST:

MQP PRESENTS - MY AMERICAN DREAM PART 1G, TRADE EXECUTION

FOR 1G CHART ABOVE:
1) I have no confidence 1795-1800 will hold right now
2) I have reason to believe we will hit 1760s tomorrow
3) I have shorted since 1812

NOTES - Will add if I have time, bc I am totally focused on execution now.

ノート

ノート

NOTES 1 - first dead cat bounce
1) if and when we get a 15-ish pt bounce, IT DOES NOT MEAN 3.5 IS LIVE
2) as I stated at end of 3.5, IT IS DEAD

ノート

NOTES 2 - at 1795, 10:23 AM
1) as of right now, 3.5 has called the exact right move
2) the problem is that the set up for it TO CONTINUE, DID NOT MATERIALIZE
3) meaning the wave structural is saying BEARS WILL BREAK THE 1795 FLOOR AND HEAD TO 1770 BEFORE END OF FRIDAY
4) this "wave structure" is the essence of my work
5) as they say in the south, you gotta dance with who brung ya
6) short it is, I expect 1680 before 12/30 ends, and I think that's conservative

ノート

NOTES 3 - as of right now, I expect "1G" route to hit PERFECT PERFECT

ノート

1) please understand that in short scenario, long is the insurance
2) I have on 1800 12/30 call for insurance
3) I have half my trade funds in 01/04 PUTS, just in case this move down is jig-jagged
4) I am holding 40% of trade funds in cash in case of ALL OTHER SHENANIGANS

ノート

5) and yes, I bought call at 1795

ノート

for chart above:
1) at "perfect 48", it means 1-48 days are in "perfect short momentum"
2) no chance that compression could stop it,
3) in fact, I've seen MUCH WORSE ON % MOVE TERMS, but my targets are set by
4) 1 AND 2 SD bollinger bands that match each wave, that's the reason for the "leaning conservatively bearish"

ノート

THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE IS 3.7 FOR MORE DETAIL: