ショート

JUST RIGHT NOW #003

A couple hours ago, bears of the UK forced the red line to break and the problem is that IT HELD. In my humbled opinion, this has ALMOST WRECKED THE BULLISH ROUTES UP. The only way to save it is to move up PAST THE RED LINE where the blue arrow is. Usually in this spot, bulls will make 2 attempts in the next 3 hours to retake the red line.

The problem is they have waited too long and the short term curves will only be neutral at 2670. This implies that they will fail both times and follow this pattern down to 2617-2622 by end of NY session.

If this move down happens, high is basically in for this rally. There still can be one more high late October, but it's only 2720-ish, nothing major. This outcome would completely lock final 2025 gold high at or under $3750.

ノート

4:58 AM, I just realized that it would probably make more sense if the first big drop ...
a) comes 60-90 minutes later after NFP
b) once the numbers are released

ノート

5:26 AM, way past due for a bounce and bears keep selling off:
a) it's 10 points but it broke 4 levels of strong wave compression
b) which was super strong support, but not anymore
c) this only happens once very few years
d) bulls still should try for one more run at least
e) this type of move doesn't go down with at least one more run
f) I've never seen it reversed completely directly without one more run
g) and that's all I got

ノート

5:36 AM, so once the high we spent 10-11 days moving sideways
a) even though we will have decent move down
b) it's not going any where far
c) and still have more sideways next week before price can move under 2600s
d) and the rebound from that will kill al of October
e) sure you'll have higher highs in November, but that's still 27xx
f) in late December you'll get 28x
g) but the strong rallies are over
h) you get into a giant sideways to up move before you can rally strong again
i) and that will kill all of January and February too
j) and that's a wrap for this project

ノート

7:45 AM, technically, it is still alive because it has not been decided yet...
a) NFP in 45 min
b) I can see a way this works out for bulls
c) but you are in the zone of crazy price action
d) something truly unusual from trend/pattern stand point
e) not the type that can mapped and forecasted

ノート

8:36 AM, 2644 after 2638
a) I don't know how to how to make short term and long term agrree
b) because even though I publish this route last
c how do I deal with all medium-long waves/trend???
d) it doesn't make any sense
e) I mean barring miracle stick save rally
f) but I happy to stop here

the end. have a good one.

ノート

10/04, 7:48 AM, 2645.XX, THE ONLY WAY IT ALL MAKES SENSE TO ME...
a) is STICK SAVE spike all the way to 2710+
b) because the drop fulfills the bear route
c) but what about the medium term-long-super long?
d) they all scream 3000 by Halloween, and they haven't stop screaming
e) that's why this stretch was so indecisive, the short term kept saying bear
f) but medium-long-super long trends all keep saying bull
h) ultimately one side will win

ノート