HEADER - Good for 12-16 hours.
SUMMARY - All regression ratios agree on first 5-6 box. At box 7 they start to disagree. Past the boxes not worth talking about.
DETAILS - Link to #1 is below. If you replay it, it caught "the curve" but not the "check down" before the the curve. I ironed out the kinks that was the issue with #1.
STRATEGY - Long to 1857, the 10 pts past that not worth the headache. It can be faster, BUT NOT SLOWER.
SUMMARY - All regression ratios agree on first 5-6 box. At box 7 they start to disagree. Past the boxes not worth talking about.
DETAILS - Link to #1 is below. If you replay it, it caught "the curve" but not the "check down" before the the curve. I ironed out the kinks that was the issue with #1.
STRATEGY - Long to 1857, the 10 pts past that not worth the headache. It can be faster, BUT NOT SLOWER.
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NOTE 1 - It can be a little bit below the boxes BUT ABOVE THE BOLD BLUE LINE, but not under it.
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NOTE 2 - This is a pretty strong one, I would be surprised if it goes off the boxes. All angles I've looked at agree for 12-16 hours.
NOTE 3 - If it hits first 8 boxes, then we will have #3.
NOTE 3 - If it hits first 8 boxes, then we will have #3.
コメント:
TRACKING UPDATE 1- 6:10 PM 01/02 AFTERMARKET OPENS 1829.30
1) prior to open, the PRE-MIDNIGHT CEILING IS 1832
2) that hasn't changed
3) these spike ups almost always close the gap before heading higher
4) so that implies a touch of 1823 before 1834
5) that's tactical information, make of it what you will
1) prior to open, the PRE-MIDNIGHT CEILING IS 1832
2) that hasn't changed
3) these spike ups almost always close the gap before heading higher
4) so that implies a touch of 1823 before 1834
5) that's tactical information, make of it what you will
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TRACKING UPDATE 2 - 6:16 PM ET
6) even though current odds for this move has increased post-spike,
7) it's not significant, and we won't know until 10-11 pm
8) expectations are first correction, then second, slow staircase to 1830 around 11pm
6) even though current odds for this move has increased post-spike,
7) it's not significant, and we won't know until 10-11 pm
8) expectations are first correction, then second, slow staircase to 1830 around 11pm
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NOTE 4 - Did I change my 1920 thesis?
1) yes, but only for this week
2) we won't know until end of Thursday 01/05
1) yes, but only for this week
2) we won't know until end of Thursday 01/05
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3) the "problematic weekly traders" I spoke of last (meaning regressions for 5-10 trading days or so) are not convinced
4) meaning their position/behavior means say check down or retest after 1860
4) meaning their position/behavior means say check down or retest after 1860
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TRACKING UPDATE 3 - 7:04 PM ET
1) looks like check-down to 1823-24 is done
2) if it spikes now, top should be 1833
3) 1-2-4 minute curves say it should be slowing down
4) but - being the nature of 1-2-4 minute - they change literally ALL THE TIME
1) looks like check-down to 1823-24 is done
2) if it spikes now, top should be 1833
3) 1-2-4 minute curves say it should be slowing down
4) but - being the nature of 1-2-4 minute - they change literally ALL THE TIME
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5) it's 1829.84 at 7:06 PM
6) curves imply that a mini top soon
7) and a mini correction by 7:40-ish time
6) curves imply that a mini top soon
7) and a mini correction by 7:40-ish time
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7:15 PM 1831.XX I gotta go clean up, will be back by 10:30.
a) manage your trade size/risks
b) but from where I stand, I don't see weakness until close to NEW YORK OPEN
c) will post from my phone if it's important
a) manage your trade size/risks
b) but from where I stand, I don't see weakness until close to NEW YORK OPEN
c) will post from my phone if it's important
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TRACKING UPDATE 4 - 8:28 PM ET, 1826.88
1) anything below this is SUPER STRONG BUY
2) hard stop at 1824
3) for 4-hour scalp, odds don't get better than this
4) they really don't
1) anything below this is SUPER STRONG BUY
2) hard stop at 1824
3) for 4-hour scalp, odds don't get better than this
4) they really don't
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TRACKING UPDATE 5 - 9:34 PM ET 1832 AGAIN, HOPE YOU BOUGHT AT 1826.
HERE'S WHATS COMING SOON:
HERE'S WHATS COMING SOON:
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9:47 PM ET - IF YOU ARE "REALLY" SCALPING, BY DEFINITION ...
1) and I mean real scalpers scalp for like 4 or 5 pts
2) my definition of scalping is relative to my previous work
3) so it's not w//in the hour scalping
4) BUT IF I WAS REALLY SCALPING AND BOUGHT 1826....
5) I WOULD SELL NOW AT 1838 and wait for another entry
1) and I mean real scalpers scalp for like 4 or 5 pts
2) my definition of scalping is relative to my previous work
3) so it's not w//in the hour scalping
4) BUT IF I WAS REALLY SCALPING AND BOUGHT 1826....
5) I WOULD SELL NOW AT 1838 and wait for another entry
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6) obviously I'm waiting for at least 1846 to reposition bc my entry was sometime last week
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TRACKING UPDATE 6 - 10:17 PM ET 1840.XX
1) I reallly think it should be 1835-37 again before 1846
2) bc it's really a bit early to be at 1846 based on the math in front of me
3) but you never really know, do you?
1) I reallly think it should be 1835-37 again before 1846
2) bc it's really a bit early to be at 1846 based on the math in front of me
3) but you never really know, do you?
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TRACKING UPDATE 7 - 10:22 PM ET 1842.XX
1) I guess we're drifting to 1846, or 47, maybe 48
2) this "drifting" is hard to spot until it actually happens, like now
1) I guess we're drifting to 1846, or 47, maybe 48
2) this "drifting" is hard to spot until it actually happens, like now
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TRACKING UPDATE 8 - REALLY IMPORTANT STUFF HERE:
1) at roughly 1:30 AM ET, we will have a "perfect long" scenario on an 8-10 hour zone
2) SO?
3) whatever correction we get between now then...
4) whether that's from higher like 1946 OR
5) whether that's from here going lower to 1836-ish
6) you need to take that entry, bc 1867 would be coming next
7) the issue here is that IT CAN TAKE UNTIL 8 AM
8) and I PLAN ON STAYING UP THE WHOLE NIGHT TO NAIL THIS TRADE
9) so if you WINNING IS A MUST, then you have to be willing to commit your time
10) THERE IS SERIOUS RUNAWAY MOMENTUM ON THE TABLE BEFORE NY OPENS
11) so don't miss it
1) at roughly 1:30 AM ET, we will have a "perfect long" scenario on an 8-10 hour zone
2) SO?
3) whatever correction we get between now then...
4) whether that's from higher like 1946 OR
5) whether that's from here going lower to 1836-ish
6) you need to take that entry, bc 1867 would be coming next
7) the issue here is that IT CAN TAKE UNTIL 8 AM
8) and I PLAN ON STAYING UP THE WHOLE NIGHT TO NAIL THIS TRADE
9) so if you WINNING IS A MUST, then you have to be willing to commit your time
10) THERE IS SERIOUS RUNAWAY MOMENTUM ON THE TABLE BEFORE NY OPENS
11) so don't miss it
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12) CORRECTION, AT 1:30 AM ET, IT WOULD BE A 6-7 HOUR ZONE
13) meaning until right before markets open in NY
13) meaning until right before markets open in NY
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14) there's even one special scenario that I won't bring up until it really sets up
15) I don't want to jinx it
15) I don't want to jinx it
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TRACKING UPDATE 9 - 10:38 PM ET
1) if you replay the forecast chart, you will see that I nailed the "level"
2) but this time, instead of being early for the curve (like SCALPING DEVICE #1)...
3) I am late with the boxes
4) that means 2 things:
a) that box to 1865-ish is also late
b) I am missing one more box after 1865
5) this is UNKNOWABLE RIGHT NOW due to limits on computing power
6) but that from 9/8 standard IRL ratio, it has to be taken seriously
1) if you replay the forecast chart, you will see that I nailed the "level"
2) but this time, instead of being early for the curve (like SCALPING DEVICE #1)...
3) I am late with the boxes
4) that means 2 things:
a) that box to 1865-ish is also late
b) I am missing one more box after 1865
5) this is UNKNOWABLE RIGHT NOW due to limits on computing power
6) but that from 9/8 standard IRL ratio, it has to be taken seriously
コメント:
TRACKING UPDATE 10 - 10:45 PM ET - DUDE NO JOKING AROUND OK?
1) I need to confirm something first,
2) but that zone I said would start at 1:30 AM ET, I maybe more than 90 minutes late
3) I don't kno w right this second, but that implies crazy numbers right now
4) will update as soon as can BUT THIS LOOKS NUTS RIGHT NOW
1) I need to confirm something first,
2) but that zone I said would start at 1:30 AM ET, I maybe more than 90 minutes late
3) I don't kno w right this second, but that implies crazy numbers right now
4) will update as soon as can BUT THIS LOOKS NUTS RIGHT NOW
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MINUTES LATER --
5) continuing... 1:30 is right
6) BUT... the 1 way momentum is NUTS RIGHT NOW
7) if I have to hold to 1860, I'm gonna do it
5) continuing... 1:30 is right
6) BUT... the 1 way momentum is NUTS RIGHT NOW
7) if I have to hold to 1860, I'm gonna do it
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TRACKING UPDATE 11 - 12:06 AM - NOT WHAT I THOUGHT
1) we are not getting to 1846 as early as I thought
2) it's going to be like 2:30 or 2:45
3) but it won't stop there, it will go to 1852-54 at that time too
4) so?
5) there is a hard ceiling around 1860+
6) it's looking like 1855-1875
7) where it stops Tues morning will matter a GREAT DEAL for TUES-FRIDAY price action
8) bears will want 1855-1860
9) bulls will want 1867-1875
10) in between is the gray area
1) we are not getting to 1846 as early as I thought
2) it's going to be like 2:30 or 2:45
3) but it won't stop there, it will go to 1852-54 at that time too
4) so?
5) there is a hard ceiling around 1860+
6) it's looking like 1855-1875
7) where it stops Tues morning will matter a GREAT DEAL for TUES-FRIDAY price action
8) bears will want 1855-1860
9) bulls will want 1867-1875
10) in between is the gray area
コメント:
TRACKING UPDATE 12 1:10 AM ET, 1841.74
1) for the rest of this trade or this post YOU MUST HAVE TRAILING HARD STOP
2) mine is now 1838.5
3) why?
4) bc various angles from 1-minute bars say top is progress
5) this is normal if top is w/in 1 hour or 7 hours
6) it's not saying much, but if you value your winnings, it's smart to do
1) for the rest of this trade or this post YOU MUST HAVE TRAILING HARD STOP
2) mine is now 1838.5
3) why?
4) bc various angles from 1-minute bars say top is progress
5) this is normal if top is w/in 1 hour or 7 hours
6) it's not saying much, but if you value your winnings, it's smart to do
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TYPO on 4) ... say top is "IN" progress...
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TRACKING UPDATE 1:18 AM ET, 1843.63 -- RAISE YOUR STOP
1) mine is now 1839.50
2) you can always get back in if you think it's worth it...
3) but the price pattern demands that we raise the stop so our time was not wasted
1) mine is now 1839.50
2) you can always get back in if you think it's worth it...
3) but the price pattern demands that we raise the stop so our time was not wasted
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TRACKING UPDATE 1:28 AM ET - meaning of angles or ratios, first this chart:
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for chart above
1) that's my live trading chart
2) it is showing opposing "angles" of price, both on 1 minute bar
3) on the left shows classic double top developing, if it completes it would be...
4) a "perfect 12 hour short"
5) but its opposing angle or ratio disagree
6) it's saying that price is w/in 15 minutes of spiking again
7) bc red will turn up before black can turn down
8) considering all intermediate and long term regressions, then...
9) chart on the right would be favored
10) but shenanigans happen all the time
11) so hard stop 1839.5 and see what happens
1) that's my live trading chart
2) it is showing opposing "angles" of price, both on 1 minute bar
3) on the left shows classic double top developing, if it completes it would be...
4) a "perfect 12 hour short"
5) but its opposing angle or ratio disagree
6) it's saying that price is w/in 15 minutes of spiking again
7) bc red will turn up before black can turn down
8) considering all intermediate and long term regressions, then...
9) chart on the right would be favored
10) but shenanigans happen all the time
11) so hard stop 1839.5 and see what happens
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TRACKING UPDATE 15 1:55 AM ET 1842.XX, raise stop to 1840.5
1) we are so close from reversing back up
2) but while you are scalping (intermediately)... and set up goes from max bull to "hard top maybe in" for 12 hours,
3) you have to save as much $ as you can
1) we are so close from reversing back up
2) but while you are scalping (intermediately)... and set up goes from max bull to "hard top maybe in" for 12 hours,
3) you have to save as much $ as you can
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2:16 AM ET..., stuck at 1842.xxx
1) everything longer than 18 hours say we should get 1867
2) but scalping is on basis of what 3, 6, and 12 hour curves say
3) in that sense, we can drop to 1837 again and still hit 1867
4) but I tired 'AF', so if it breaks my stop and doesn't setup again soon,
5) that's it for me and I'm done with #2 regardless of what happens after that
1) everything longer than 18 hours say we should get 1867
2) but scalping is on basis of what 3, 6, and 12 hour curves say
3) in that sense, we can drop to 1837 again and still hit 1867
4) but I tired 'AF', so if it breaks my stop and doesn't setup again soon,
5) that's it for me and I'm done with #2 regardless of what happens after that
コメント:
6) continuing... what about that "7 hour or so perfect long zone"
7) this is not the same as a "7 hour perfect long", which is set up by regressions less than 7 hours long
8) that zone has moved to 2:45-3:30 start time
9) that's annoying for me, bc experience has taught to me to break it off when goal posts get moved
10) earlier, it was 1846 by 1am, it's 2:21 now and it's still 1843.xx, this is not trivial considering the setup...
11) it just broke to 1845... I feel better now
7) this is not the same as a "7 hour perfect long", which is set up by regressions less than 7 hours long
8) that zone has moved to 2:45-3:30 start time
9) that's annoying for me, bc experience has taught to me to break it off when goal posts get moved
10) earlier, it was 1846 by 1am, it's 2:21 now and it's still 1843.xx, this is not trivial considering the setup...
11) it just broke to 1845... I feel better now
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12) 2:24 am 1846, better late than never
13) I'm number crunching for new stops
13) I'm number crunching for new stops
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TRACKING UPDATE 16 - CONSIDER THIS:
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FOR CHART ABOVE
1) it's 2:33 am as I type we are 1847.xx
2) looking left, next 2 levels are 1857 and 1878
3) regression odds strongly favor 1857 ahead of NY OPEN at 9:30 AM
4) my target splits those two levels at 1867
5) just tagged 1849, I'm game until we get there
1) it's 2:33 am as I type we are 1847.xx
2) looking left, next 2 levels are 1857 and 1878
3) regression odds strongly favor 1857 ahead of NY OPEN at 9:30 AM
4) my target splits those two levels at 1867
5) just tagged 1849, I'm game until we get there
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TRACKING UPDATE 16, 2:57 AM ET, RAISED STOP TO 1844, maybe raise it again soon
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3:00 AM, 1847.XX RAISE TO 1845.25
1) why?
2) bc WE ARE SCALPING, REMEMBER?
1) why?
2) bc WE ARE SCALPING, REMEMBER?
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3:10 RELOADED 1842.XX, NEW STOP 1840.5
1) if it hits again, I'm calling it a night
2) there's always another setup
1) if it hits again, I'm calling it a night
2) there's always another setup
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3:16 AM RAISE STOP, 1842.5
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3:19 AM STOPPED OUT, HAVE A GOOD NIGHT
THIS POST HAS ENDED
THIS POST HAS ENDED
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4:28 AM ET - I GOT BACK IN AT 1837 A WHILE AGO
1) route to 1855-57 very much alive
2) by extension so is 1867
3) but I am not giving updates cause I'm too tired
4) just pointing that out.
5) this chart will expire roughly 9 AM ET any way (bc it maxes out at 16 hours)
1) route to 1855-57 very much alive
2) by extension so is 1867
3) but I am not giving updates cause I'm too tired
4) just pointing that out.
5) this chart will expire roughly 9 AM ET any way (bc it maxes out at 16 hours)
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6) continuing, so just saying it's better to be long until 7:30 ET
7) the small short window has closed, so if you are shorting be extremely careful
8) have a good night, or morning, or whatever wherever you are
7) the small short window has closed, so if you are shorting be extremely careful
8) have a good night, or morning, or whatever wherever you are
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4:55 1838.7 I'm done, it's not going happen at least now.
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see you next time
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SO HERE IS #3, BUT W/O CONTINUOUS SUPPORT. THIS MEANS THAT I DO NOT INTEND TO PROVIDE TRACKING UPDATES LIKE I DID #2:
