Gold still within Neutral Rectangle / no major moves

2022年5月27日

Gold's general commentary: As the Daily chart’s #1,858.80 - #1,862.80 zone is still holding, Gold delivered a new Low’s exactly on Lower High’s Lower zone vicinity, since the #4-session consecutive Buying spree was terminated. Hourly 4 chart’s RSI is approaching the critical Bearish breakout level and as the DX is gradually preparing the terrain for quick recovery attempt and Bullish rebound. Under the circumstances, I expect nothing but side swings which are not enough for me to enter the market. Once DX resumes it’s Buying sequence and breaks the consolidation rally upwards, expect an aggressive takedown on Gold.


Technical analysis: As expected, Gold reached and got rejected near Lower Support zone priced at #1,842.80 - #1,848.80, in the same manner as the Resistance zone of #1,858.80 - #1,862.80 on Daily chart, as the emerging Hourly 1 chart's Ascending Channel should now keep consolidating until major move is revealed (range #1,848.80 - #1,871.80). In my opinion, Gold should be timed for an downswing / correction but I cannot expect cooling down the Overbought levels with DX struggling to make Bullish comeback and Bond Yields on neutral candles (but still without major recovery signs). Seems like the Fed is keeping Bond Yields on Yearly Low’s to encourage Investors to have more trust in equities in the fight against Inflation on ATH. Technically, the Ascending Channel has an upside Lower High's limit within #1,871.80 extension before it makes a new High and confirm that Buying is in continuation (less likely). If however #1,848.80 breaks first, I expect an aggressive takedown towards #1,831.80. The Daily chart’s Resistance rests near this configuration and is where the Daily chart should Resist once again the Short-term Bullish trend within the new Bearish cycle. Note that today’s session pullback on DX assisted Gold's Price-action and prevented further downtrend, but as Wall Street opening Bell is approaching, it appears to be reversing. As discussed, I believe the market will present the dominant move after Monday's session U.S. opening and with the DX (main correlation I have at the moment along with Bond Yields), Gold is still Bearish as I see no firm reason for Buying sustainability at the moment.


My position: As I widely explained above, all this points to a "no call" for me, since this is market I'd rather sit out than Trade. #1,863.80 Resistance break can deliver fast spike towards #1,870.80 which are small Profit numbers for me to take part on the market. My results for current cycle are excellent and I haven't got urge to Trade this.