Gold Retracement to Pick Up Steam and Head South

5月4日

Gold, Weekly - Indicators with Fibs Overlay: There is the risk of an extension long up here if gold can find support above 2257.36 . . . the issue is that our fibs on the intraday are bearish and we keep going down. But, if bulls find support, the upside of this extension is 2500. But, currently, we are bearish and I suspect that we will take some time to trade down into the weekly bull fibs, 2048-2194 . . . that is my preferred scenario. That would also be part of the series of longs, the first one trading in Oct 23 as a result of the late 22-early 23 spike that saw gold trade it's long in our golden 50-61.8% zone in Oct of 23 at 1800.

It is usually a bad idea to buy above the Weekly Bollinger Band. Anybody who bought in the prior three weeks and held are now underwater. We have also fallen below the 5 week SMA and about to lose the embedded status of the slow stochastic with a decline next week. The 20Week SMA, Yellow Line and Midpoint of the Bollinger Band, at 2150 is a really good target. That 20Week SMA was also support that we bounced from earlier this year to get the bull move going. My bias does remain lower, though we will have occasional violent bursts higher into resistance.