金／米ドルロング
Today's strategy is running in the range of 2500~2530
The price fluctuated in a narrow range on Thursday, and the current price is around 2516. Gold prices rose and fell on Wednesday, supported by safe-haven buying. Gold prices rose to around 2529 earlier in the session on Wednesday, approaching the historical high, but after the US CPI data, gold gave up its gains and fell to around the 2500 mark at one point, as US inflation data prompted investors to reduce their expectations of the Federal Reserve's super-large interest rate cut next week, and the US dollar and Treasury yields strengthened.
Higher-than-expected US core inflation data will become a problem for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next Wednesday. The focus now is on the core CPI monthly rate data, which tends to increase concerns about stubborn inflation. Those among the FOMC members who are worried about monetary policy turning too fast or too decisively will certainly strongly oppose a 50 basis point rate cut next week. This is expected to provide some support for gold prices, as a rate cut will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.
The US will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) report on Thursday, which may also help the market assess the scale of the Federal Reserve's September rate cut. In addition, investors are also paying attention to the US initial jobless claims report. We also need to pay attention to the ECB's interest rate decision and news related to the geopolitical situation.
[Technical aspect]
Technical aspect: Gold closed slightly lower yesterday, ending the two-day long bullish trend. The 20-cycle Bollinger Bands on the daily chart continued to shrink and the upper and lower tracks were compressed to 2527/2487. The RSI indicator was flat around the middle axis, and the MA10/7-day moving average was glued. There was no obvious trend in the short term, and the high-level wide fluctuations may continue. Continue to refer to the 2500-2530 range for high selling and low buying during the day.
Trading strategy:
2496-2500 long, stop loss 2488, target 2520-2530;
2526-2530 short, stop loss 2539, target 2500-2490;
See below for more signals
Higher-than-expected US core inflation data will become a problem for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next Wednesday. The focus now is on the core CPI monthly rate data, which tends to increase concerns about stubborn inflation. Those among the FOMC members who are worried about monetary policy turning too fast or too decisively will certainly strongly oppose a 50 basis point rate cut next week. This is expected to provide some support for gold prices, as a rate cut will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.
The US will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) report on Thursday, which may also help the market assess the scale of the Federal Reserve's September rate cut. In addition, investors are also paying attention to the US initial jobless claims report. We also need to pay attention to the ECB's interest rate decision and news related to the geopolitical situation.
[Technical aspect]
Technical aspect: Gold closed slightly lower yesterday, ending the two-day long bullish trend. The 20-cycle Bollinger Bands on the daily chart continued to shrink and the upper and lower tracks were compressed to 2527/2487. The RSI indicator was flat around the middle axis, and the MA10/7-day moving average was glued. There was no obvious trend in the short term, and the high-level wide fluctuations may continue. Continue to refer to the 2500-2530 range for high selling and low buying during the day.
Trading strategy:
2496-2500 long, stop loss 2488, target 2520-2530;
2526-2530 short, stop loss 2539, target 2500-2490;
See below for more signals
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