Gold fluctuates weakly, waiting for CPI

10月10日

Gold fell again yesterday, with six consecutive negative lines on the daily line. The price remained below $2,620 for most of the time, and the overall trend fell below the 20-day moving average. The current 5-day moving average is below the 10-day moving average, and it shows a trend of short-term divergence. Therefore, we continue to maintain a short-term mindset. At the same time, the US CPI data for this trading day will be released soon. While maintaining a bearish outlook, gold needs to pay close attention to the break of the support level below. It is expected that gold will usher in a short-term directional choice today.

From the daily chart, the current short-term trend line is near the $2,600 mark, and the price has fallen from the high of $2,685, with a range of nearly $80. Next, the market will face a key choice: whether to continue to fall further or to fall again after a short-term rebound. With the release of CPI data, a clear direction is expected today.

The 4-hour chart shows that gold is fluctuating downward along the short-term moving average, and the short-term moving average continues to diverge downward, with no signs of stopping the decline. The moving average continues to turn down, and there is a trend of forming a death cross. If the death cross is confirmed, gold may open up a larger downside space, and the decline will continue further.

On the 1-hour chart, gold is currently maintained in a narrow range of low fluctuations, but the rebound strength and continuity are weak, and the bears dominate. We need to be wary of a possible secondary downward trend after the short-term correction is over. The short-term pressure level is around $2,620, the risk aversion sentiment has subsided, and the rebound is weak. If gold cannot break through the $2,624 line, we will be bearish on the trend. At the same time, focus on the support of the $2,600 mark. If it falls below this key position, it may trigger an accelerated downward trend.

To sum up, the short-term operation strategy for gold should be based on shorting on rebounds and supplemented by long on pullbacks.
The upper short-term focus is on the 2622-2624 resistance range
The lower short-term focus is on the 2600-2604 support range

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