Fridays(option expiration): Its not every month it goes down.
Seems to correlate with the trend.
When negative trend > it has cone only 10-20% down.
So max down is -20% around expiration day (since 2-3 years).
Exceptions below.
Looks like the 25kEUR level can be touched
(in May, latest 11.June)
-> worse case 18kEUR
(that is -40% from this moment)
-> reversion next level 36-37kEUR
... 15kEUR will not go there,
Exceptions (continue downtrend vs. reversion)
- Mar2020
- Sep2019
- Dec2018
- May/Jul2018
- Dec2017
(crash, Jan18 dropped -40% in 30days)
What you think?
Seems to correlate with the trend.
When negative trend > it has cone only 10-20% down.
So max down is -20% around expiration day (since 2-3 years).
Exceptions below.
Looks like the 25kEUR level can be touched
(in May, latest 11.June)
-> worse case 18kEUR
(that is -40% from this moment)
-> reversion next level 36-37kEUR
... 15kEUR will not go there,
Exceptions (continue downtrend vs. reversion)
- Mar2020
- Sep2019
- Dec2018
- May/Jul2018
- Dec2017
(crash, Jan18 dropped -40% in 30days)
What you think?