Stellar (XLM)! Was It All Just Re-Accumulation?
アップデート済
Since my last XLM post, we've had a substantial bounce. I called the breakdown towards 2000 once 3500 and then 2900 were lost. Then, I suggested that we had likely seen a bottom, since we had massive buying volume on the initial spike above 2300. I also said that it could take a while for us to see our true bounce, since the 2200 level may have needed to be tested as support again. After continuously testing that level, we finally had a rally. This rally, believe it or not (just look at the chart!), had the largest daily volume Stellar Lumens has seen since December, 2017! This is very significant. Additionally, we are at a major RSI resistance (around 70) that has capped us for over a year, and if that breaks we could have a big spike up.
All this leads me to believe that our giant pennant from 2018 was actually re-accumulation, rather than distribution. If you watched my video on accumulation and shakeout tactics on the ICXBTC chart, you'll know that a "terminal shakeout" often happens at the very end of an accumulation cycle. That shakeout often takes us BELOW known support. In the case of XLM, it took us slightly below 2100, which was the known support from the initial crash in early 2018. There were likely a lot of stop losses set below that level, which meant that big buyers could scoop up a massive quantity of XLM. This is tapping liquidity in the market. Then, price can finally break the range and look for a markup. This also happened with Ontology (ONT), and it's what caused me to buy in at 60 cents. It's now $1.
In terms of current XLMBTC price action, we blasted above my initial target of 2500, all the way towards the 2900 resistance. This move also broke us out of our mid-term downtrend - the descending triangle that broke down in early 2019. If we can hold above that resistance line, there's a chance we could see further price appreciation towards 3100. If that breaks, we can even target 4300. In the short term, we have support around 2400 (the red trendline, which is actually the upper resistance of our original triangle from 2018 - you can see it on the main chart above).
Both the weekly RSI and Ultimate Oscillator show a lot of room for growth as well:
HOWEVER, on the bearish view (possible, but less likely in my opinion, based on volume), if we break below 2000, we will see a much deeper retrace. On the USD log chart, we do seem to have some solid support at 7 cents, which was an area I was actually initially looking at for a long term bottom. You can see this in my previous analyses. The next support below there isn't until around 3 cents!
Anyway, this is not financial advice. This coin is one of my main investments, so it's good to see it moving again. It's fun to keep track of this market, and I do this only for educational purposes.
-Victor Cobra
All this leads me to believe that our giant pennant from 2018 was actually re-accumulation, rather than distribution. If you watched my video on accumulation and shakeout tactics on the ICXBTC chart, you'll know that a "terminal shakeout" often happens at the very end of an accumulation cycle. That shakeout often takes us BELOW known support. In the case of XLM, it took us slightly below 2100, which was the known support from the initial crash in early 2018. There were likely a lot of stop losses set below that level, which meant that big buyers could scoop up a massive quantity of XLM. This is tapping liquidity in the market. Then, price can finally break the range and look for a markup. This also happened with Ontology (ONT), and it's what caused me to buy in at 60 cents. It's now $1.
In terms of current XLMBTC price action, we blasted above my initial target of 2500, all the way towards the 2900 resistance. This move also broke us out of our mid-term downtrend - the descending triangle that broke down in early 2019. If we can hold above that resistance line, there's a chance we could see further price appreciation towards 3100. If that breaks, we can even target 4300. In the short term, we have support around 2400 (the red trendline, which is actually the upper resistance of our original triangle from 2018 - you can see it on the main chart above).
Both the weekly RSI and Ultimate Oscillator show a lot of room for growth as well:
HOWEVER, on the bearish view (possible, but less likely in my opinion, based on volume), if we break below 2000, we will see a much deeper retrace. On the USD log chart, we do seem to have some solid support at 7 cents, which was an area I was actually initially looking at for a long term bottom. You can see this in my previous analyses. The next support below there isn't until around 3 cents!
Anyway, this is not financial advice. This coin is one of my main investments, so it's good to see it moving again. It's fun to keep track of this market, and I do this only for educational purposes.
-Victor Cobra
ノート
Nice push up just now. Got rejected right at 2900 (major resistance), but if that breaks, we should head to the green X: ノート
The oscillators might need to cool off though, so we could also have a pullback soon. Haven't had much of a test of newfound support since the breakout.
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