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XRP: Elliott Wave Count (log)
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My roots in applying Elliott Wave as a tool to navigate markets goes back almost 15 years. Many people are confused by Elliott Wave, considered it useless, arbitrary, subjective, etc.. I have found it helpful to become an expert in Elliott rules and guidelines for one primary purpose... to aid in understanding points of major trend changes to manage risk. I use other tools to determine specific points of where and when to enter trades.
One very important factor when applying Elliott waves. It is essential that counts are re-labeled as new evidence presents itself through price. This is especially true considering how new all crypto assets are. Stocks, currencies, bonds, etc. have been around for many decades and even centuries in some cases. Again, this is maddening to some less experienced in using the method, as well as less experienced TA's. Understand that it is how the method is designed and lean into it, or move on and don't pay any attention to Elliott wavers... they will just frustrate you... and frustrate the Elliott Waver as well. Waver's are not "Wrong" for relabelling. It is absolutely expected and essential.
Here is my current Elliott count for the entire move up in XRPUSD since early 2017.
A few notes:
Since XRP has been around for awhile, there are price trends prior to 2017 (pre Bitstamp), but given the very low volume I am not including. They are likely a series of minute and subminute level 1's and 2's if I were to label them.
There are more bullish counts to what I am showing. Much more bullish. I am not showing them because this count fits the best taking into consideration Elliott rules and guidelines GIVEN CURRENT PRICE INFORMATION.
Wave 5 (5) [(1)]: I am not intentionally not showing a target of where I think this wave will end, only that it will end and thus the ENTIRE FIRST WAVE AT THE PRIMARY DEGREE/LEVEL. Once it ends, a Primary Degree correction will take place. It expect it to be very substantial. I will use other tools (fib levels, etc.) to determine where this wave will likely end.
Key to Elliott wave is drawing trend channels. A break of the key trend channel shown warns that an 5 wave impulse is done and that a 3 wave correction is due. The trend channels I am showing are key to the Elliott counts shown.
We are nearing a point where a new interim low is not possible without breaking the lower trend channel. If a break happens, my count will change quickly as it means that the primary degree wave is already over (ie. my count is wrong), and we are in a primary degree wave [(2)] down. Right now, I do not expect that this is the likely outcome, but since it is possible, I will look at the evidence in price as it comes.
To learn more about the rules/guidelines of Elliott wave and how to apply them:
stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:guidelines_for_applying_elliott_wave_theory
One very important factor when applying Elliott waves. It is essential that counts are re-labeled as new evidence presents itself through price. This is especially true considering how new all crypto assets are. Stocks, currencies, bonds, etc. have been around for many decades and even centuries in some cases. Again, this is maddening to some less experienced in using the method, as well as less experienced TA's. Understand that it is how the method is designed and lean into it, or move on and don't pay any attention to Elliott wavers... they will just frustrate you... and frustrate the Elliott Waver as well. Waver's are not "Wrong" for relabelling. It is absolutely expected and essential.
Here is my current Elliott count for the entire move up in XRPUSD since early 2017.
A few notes:
Since XRP has been around for awhile, there are price trends prior to 2017 (pre Bitstamp), but given the very low volume I am not including. They are likely a series of minute and subminute level 1's and 2's if I were to label them.
There are more bullish counts to what I am showing. Much more bullish. I am not showing them because this count fits the best taking into consideration Elliott rules and guidelines GIVEN CURRENT PRICE INFORMATION.
Wave 5 (5) [(1)]: I am not intentionally not showing a target of where I think this wave will end, only that it will end and thus the ENTIRE FIRST WAVE AT THE PRIMARY DEGREE/LEVEL. Once it ends, a Primary Degree correction will take place. It expect it to be very substantial. I will use other tools (fib levels, etc.) to determine where this wave will likely end.
Key to Elliott wave is drawing trend channels. A break of the key trend channel shown warns that an 5 wave impulse is done and that a 3 wave correction is due. The trend channels I am showing are key to the Elliott counts shown.
We are nearing a point where a new interim low is not possible without breaking the lower trend channel. If a break happens, my count will change quickly as it means that the primary degree wave is already over (ie. my count is wrong), and we are in a primary degree wave [(2)] down. Right now, I do not expect that this is the likely outcome, but since it is possible, I will look at the evidence in price as it comes.
To learn more about the rules/guidelines of Elliott wave and how to apply them:
stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:guidelines_for_applying_elliott_wave_theory
ノート
Price still playing out very well with this view. We reached a critical junction along the first dotted yellow trendline, and have seen a nice bounce off it over past few hours. This is the action I would expect for response to a significant trendline. We should expect to see some strong action to the upside with volume/conviction for wave 3 of (5) of [(1)].ノート
From my post above: "We are nearing a point where a new interim low is not possible without breaking the lower trend channel. If a break happens, my count will change quickly as it means that the primary degree wave is already over (ie. my count is wrong), and we are in a primary degree wave down. Right now, I do not expect that this is the likely outcome, but since it is possible, I will look at the evidence in price as it comes." Price broke down through both the 200 EMA and the lower trendline. Elliott wave rules still allow for wave 2 of wave (4) to retrace all the way down to .5627 before being technically invalidated, however unless price starts recovering with strong buy volume soon, the recent breakdown puts this count on the ropes. My alternate count (which looks like it might become the primary), is on deck. It will show that primary first wave [(1)] is already over at the recent ATH and that we are in wave [(2)].
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