UPDATE! Long Term Elliott Wave & Macro View
アップデート済
It has been over a year since my last post (March 2018) on the long term wave count. At that time, the bears were successful at breaking through the lower trend channel...
Here is what we know today:
As bearish as sentiment has been in the past 10 months, it is important to understand that the price low for wave [(2)] happened way back August 13th, 2018 (.24508 on Bitstamp)! After which, we got a huge spike up into the .70's (what I have labelled as wave (1) of [(3)]. Since then, we have retraced back to test the lows followed by a few smaller spikes a whole lotta range/consolidation action.
On April 25th, the market was very bearish on XRPUSD. Price declined in another test of the lows, and it looked like new lows were imminent. during this breakdown, even Joel Katz folded the towel publicly on a portion of his XRP holdings citing "de-risking". I am labeling this low as (2) of [(3)].
Since then, XRP has been in rally mode. Not the "melt your face" sort of spikes seen in 2017 bull, but healthy rallies followed by corrections that dipped into common fib levels (38-62% approx). Litecoin and Bitcoin have been taking much of the price headlines. They tend to lead the market so this is to be expected. Meanwhile, XRPUSD has been quietly building a base... staying above long term moving averages... seeing a so-called "golden cross", and building momentum. This is exactly the pricing behavior I would expect for the beginnings of a wave [(3)] after such a deep wave [(2)] retracement.
Enough history, on to the charts!
The chart shown is speculative. It's purpose is to show an idealized 5 wave advance using common fib extensions and the nature of crypto assets to form a curved channel on log charts. The goal is to target potential wave count end points. The market is the uptimate arbiter of truth, and as more price information becomes available, this charts mill be adjusted. Okay, so if it can change, why bother showing it? Here's why...
As a long time trader, it is incredibly important to take a step back and take a look at macro trends. I always want to be trading the longer term trend. Always. This is true if you trade on the weekly, daily, hourly, or minute charts. You need to understand the bigger picture. I have been off in my timing many, many times over the years, but because I trade WITH the trend, I have made money. The moment I try to trade against the prevailing trend, I am opening myself up to serious risk.
My long term macro view:
1. 2017 was the kickoff rally of a multi-year bullish trend in alt coins. This trend will have ups and downs. Digital assets that use distributed ledger technology are a brand new asset class with limited liquidity. As such, they will be volatile in its early years (except stable coins that are usually pegged to something stable to give them relative stability). Over time, most of the top 10 digital assets will seen much less volatility. The makeup of the top 10 will also see many changes over the years of this advance.
2. Ripple's solutions provide the leading bridge solution for legacy financial institutions to take advantage of the benefits of the new order for the world of financial asset tracking.... distributed ledger technology. They have a big head start, and have been slowly building a massive pool of trust. Oh year... and they have designed their solutions to use XRP in the long run.
3. More liquidity will come to the market. We are not yet anywhere near mass adoption.
4. I will be wrong from time to time about the short term squiggles on the chart (historically, I have a track record in the low 50% of trades closed in the money).
5. There is room for a number of digital assets.... there will be many use cases in the decades ahead. Over time, there will be 2 or maybe 3 that dominate a majority of the market share. Bitcoin will be among them, but will continue to struggle with payment scalability.
6. Digital assets will become more seamlessly interoperable and usable. Not now though. We are still early in adoption cycle. User interaction remains crude and clunky... but less so than in 2017.
7. The next generation will understand digital assets and how blockchain works better than they understand how FIAT works.
8. Opening the door to low cost, fast micropayments worldwide will be a massive growth enabler. Probably larger than all other use cases combined. It will be used for good, and for evil. Both sets of use cases will be marketed as good in the beginning. Platforms relying on dopamine pushes will use micropayments to increase the ferocity of their platforms with this technology.
Hope you find this post useful. Feel free to comment on your own macro view in the comments below.
-Pro
Here is what we know today:
- Wave [(1)] is the first in a 5 wave impulse that ended at 3.3xx (Bitstamp).
The bear market starting winter 2017/18 began wave [(2)].
Once wave [(2)] ends, wave [(3)] will begin, taking XRPUSD to new highs.
As bearish as sentiment has been in the past 10 months, it is important to understand that the price low for wave [(2)] happened way back August 13th, 2018 (.24508 on Bitstamp)! After which, we got a huge spike up into the .70's (what I have labelled as wave (1) of [(3)]. Since then, we have retraced back to test the lows followed by a few smaller spikes a whole lotta range/consolidation action.
On April 25th, the market was very bearish on XRPUSD. Price declined in another test of the lows, and it looked like new lows were imminent. during this breakdown, even Joel Katz folded the towel publicly on a portion of his XRP holdings citing "de-risking". I am labeling this low as (2) of [(3)].
Since then, XRP has been in rally mode. Not the "melt your face" sort of spikes seen in 2017 bull, but healthy rallies followed by corrections that dipped into common fib levels (38-62% approx). Litecoin and Bitcoin have been taking much of the price headlines. They tend to lead the market so this is to be expected. Meanwhile, XRPUSD has been quietly building a base... staying above long term moving averages... seeing a so-called "golden cross", and building momentum. This is exactly the pricing behavior I would expect for the beginnings of a wave [(3)] after such a deep wave [(2)] retracement.
Enough history, on to the charts!
The chart shown is speculative. It's purpose is to show an idealized 5 wave advance using common fib extensions and the nature of crypto assets to form a curved channel on log charts. The goal is to target potential wave count end points. The market is the uptimate arbiter of truth, and as more price information becomes available, this charts mill be adjusted. Okay, so if it can change, why bother showing it? Here's why...
As a long time trader, it is incredibly important to take a step back and take a look at macro trends. I always want to be trading the longer term trend. Always. This is true if you trade on the weekly, daily, hourly, or minute charts. You need to understand the bigger picture. I have been off in my timing many, many times over the years, but because I trade WITH the trend, I have made money. The moment I try to trade against the prevailing trend, I am opening myself up to serious risk.
My long term macro view:
1. 2017 was the kickoff rally of a multi-year bullish trend in alt coins. This trend will have ups and downs. Digital assets that use distributed ledger technology are a brand new asset class with limited liquidity. As such, they will be volatile in its early years (except stable coins that are usually pegged to something stable to give them relative stability). Over time, most of the top 10 digital assets will seen much less volatility. The makeup of the top 10 will also see many changes over the years of this advance.
2. Ripple's solutions provide the leading bridge solution for legacy financial institutions to take advantage of the benefits of the new order for the world of financial asset tracking.... distributed ledger technology. They have a big head start, and have been slowly building a massive pool of trust. Oh year... and they have designed their solutions to use XRP in the long run.
3. More liquidity will come to the market. We are not yet anywhere near mass adoption.
4. I will be wrong from time to time about the short term squiggles on the chart (historically, I have a track record in the low 50% of trades closed in the money).
5. There is room for a number of digital assets.... there will be many use cases in the decades ahead. Over time, there will be 2 or maybe 3 that dominate a majority of the market share. Bitcoin will be among them, but will continue to struggle with payment scalability.
6. Digital assets will become more seamlessly interoperable and usable. Not now though. We are still early in adoption cycle. User interaction remains crude and clunky... but less so than in 2017.
7. The next generation will understand digital assets and how blockchain works better than they understand how FIAT works.
8. Opening the door to low cost, fast micropayments worldwide will be a massive growth enabler. Probably larger than all other use cases combined. It will be used for good, and for evil. Both sets of use cases will be marketed as good in the beginning. Platforms relying on dopamine pushes will use micropayments to increase the ferocity of their platforms with this technology.
Hope you find this post useful. Feel free to comment on your own macro view in the comments below.
-Pro
ノート
A few corrections below. Looks like tradingview didnt like some of my Elliottwave count characters. Here it is corrected. Should make following the post less confusing... of course, this is Elliottwave, so I am sure to confuse some no matter what!Here is what we know today:
Wave is the first in a 5 wave impulse that ended at 3.3xx ( Bitstamp ).
The bear market starting winter 2017/18 began wave "[(2)]".
Once wave "[(2)]" ends, wave "[(3)]" will begin, taking XRPUSD to new highs.
As bearish as sentiment has been in the past 10 months, it is important to understand that the price low for wave happened way back August 13th, 2018 (.24508 on Bitstamp )! After which, we got a huge spike up into the .70's (what I have labelled as wave (1) of "[(3)]". Since then, we have retraced back to test the lows followed by a few smaller spikes a whole lotta range/consolidation action.
On April 25th, the market was very bearish on XRPUSD. Price declined in another test of the lows, and it looked like new lows were imminent. during this breakdown, even Joel Katz folded the towel publicly on a portion of his XRP holdings citing "de-risking". I am labeling this low as (2) of "[(3)]".
Since then, XRP has been in rally mode. Not the "melt your face" sort of spikes seen in 2017 bull, but healthy rallies followed by corrections that dipped into common fib levels (38-62% aprox). Litecoin and Bitcoin have been taking much of the price headlines. They tend to lead the market so this is to be expected. Meanwhile, XRPUSD has been quietly building a base... staying above long term moving averages... seeing a so-called "golden cross", and building momentum. This is exactly the pricing behavior I would expect for the beginnings of a wave after such a deep wave "[(2)]" retracement.
ノート
Lol... damn you Trading view! Still didn't like the brackets, even with "". Last try...Here is what we know today:
Wave is the first in a 5 wave impulse that ended at 3.3xx ( Bitstamp ).
The bear market starting winter 2017/18 began wave |(2)|.
Once wave |(2)| ends, wave |(3)| will begin, taking XRPUSD to new highs.
As bearish as sentiment has been in the past 10 months, it is important to understand that the price low for wave |(2)| happened way back August 13th, 2018 (.24508 on Bitstamp )! After which, we got a huge spike up into the .70's (what I have labelled as wave (1) of |(3)|. Since then, we have retraced back to test the lows followed by a few smaller spikes a whole lotta range/consolidation action.
On April 25th, the market was very bearish on XRPUSD. Price declined in another test of the lows, and it looked like new lows were imminent. during this breakdown, even Joel Katz folded the towel publicly on a portion of his XRP holdings citing "de-risking". I am labeling this low as (2) of |(3)|.
Since then, XRP has been in rally mode. Not the "melt your face" sort of spikes seen in 2017 bull, but healthy rallies followed by corrections that dipped into common fib levels (38-62% approx). Litecoin and Bitcoin have been taking much of the price headlines. They tend to lead the market so this is to be expected. Meanwhile, XRPUSD has been quietly building a base... staying above long term moving averages... seeing a so-called "golden cross", and building momentum. This is exactly the pricing behavior I would expect for the beginnings of a wave after such a deep wave |(2)| retracement.
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