USD STIR RALLY PUTS USD BACK ON BID: FED ROSENGREN SPEECH
Fed Funds Rallied up from 18% to 33% on the day with Fed rosengrens hawkish comments the only likely impetus.
Imo DXY here at 95 mid has an easy 50bps of topside left in it if rates can hold here at 33%, UST also seen higher across the board with the bench mark 10y yield breaking pre-brexit levels.
Long DXY, and shorting yen on rallies is the way I intend on playing this, yen from a risk-off perspective imo is still cheap whilst USD been heavily offer for the past week.. rates need to hold up though so this is tactical positioning rather than a structural 21st Sept Fed bet. SPX likely to remain underpressure too whilst rates trade here so short positioning is paying off though i still like SPX lower to 2000s and will be holding for this.
Fed Rosengren Speech Highlights:
Fed's Rosengren: Gradual Interest Rate Increases 'Appropriate'
Rosengren: U.S. Economy Resilient Despite Drag From Overseas
Rosengren: Could Reach or Exceed Full Employment 'Over the Course of the Next Year'
Rosengren: 'Reasonable Case' for Gradual Interest Rate Increases
Rosengren: Weakness in Recent GDP Readings Reflects Inventory Adjustments
Rosengren: Expects Growth to Exceed 2% Next Two Quarters
Rosengren: 80,000 to 100,000 Jobs a Month Needed to Keep Unemployment Rate Constant
Rosengren: Stock Prices, Volatility Gauge Show U.S. Resilience
Rosengren: Commercial Real Estate Prices Have Risen Rapidly
Rosengren: Risks to Forecast 'Increasingly Two-Sided'
Rosengren: Waiting Too Long to Raise Rates Could Lead to 'More Pronounced' Slowdown in Growth
Imo DXY here at 95 mid has an easy 50bps of topside left in it if rates can hold here at 33%, UST also seen higher across the board with the bench mark 10y yield breaking pre-brexit levels.
Long DXY, and shorting yen on rallies is the way I intend on playing this, yen from a risk-off perspective imo is still cheap whilst USD been heavily offer for the past week.. rates need to hold up though so this is tactical positioning rather than a structural 21st Sept Fed bet. SPX likely to remain underpressure too whilst rates trade here so short positioning is paying off though i still like SPX lower to 2000s and will be holding for this.
Fed Rosengren Speech Highlights:
Fed's Rosengren: Gradual Interest Rate Increases 'Appropriate'
Rosengren: U.S. Economy Resilient Despite Drag From Overseas
Rosengren: Could Reach or Exceed Full Employment 'Over the Course of the Next Year'
Rosengren: 'Reasonable Case' for Gradual Interest Rate Increases
Rosengren: Weakness in Recent GDP Readings Reflects Inventory Adjustments
Rosengren: Expects Growth to Exceed 2% Next Two Quarters
Rosengren: 80,000 to 100,000 Jobs a Month Needed to Keep Unemployment Rate Constant
Rosengren: Stock Prices, Volatility Gauge Show U.S. Resilience
Rosengren: Commercial Real Estate Prices Have Risen Rapidly
Rosengren: Risks to Forecast 'Increasingly Two-Sided'
Rosengren: Waiting Too Long to Raise Rates Could Lead to 'More Pronounced' Slowdown in Growth
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