High of Day Low of Day hourly timings: Statistics. Time of day %High of Day (HoD) & Low of Day (LoD) hourly timings: Statistics. Time of day % likelihood for high and low.
//Purpose:
To collect stats on the hourly occurrences of HoD and LoD in an asset, to see which times of day price is more likely to form its highest and lowest prices.
//How it works:
Each day, HoD and LoD are calculated and placed in hourly 'buckets' from 0-23. Frequencies and Percentages are then calculated and printed/tabulated based on the full asset history available.
//User Inputs:
-Timezone (default is New York); important to make sure this matches your chart's timezone
-Day start time: (default is Tradingview's standard). Toggle Custom input box to input your own custom day start time.
-Show/hide day-start vertical lines; show/hide previous day's 'HoD hour' label (default toggled on). To be used as visual aid for setting up & verifying timezone settings are correct and table is populating correctly).
-Use historical start date (default toggled off): Use this along with bar-replay to backtest specific periods in price (i.e. consolidated vs trending, dull vs volatile).
-Standard formatting options (text color/size, table position, etc).
-Option to show ONLY on hourly chart (default toggled off): since this indicator is of most use by far on the hourly chart (most history, max precision).
// Notes & Tips:
-Make sure Timezone settings match (input setting & chart timezone).
-Play around with custom input day start time. Choose a 'dead' time (overnight) so as to ensure stats are their most meaningful (if you set a day start time when price is likely to be volatile or trending, you may get a biased / misleadingly high readout for the start-of-day/ end-of-day hour, due to price's tendency for continuation through that time.
-If you find a time of day with significantly higher % and it falls either side of your day start time. Try adjusting day start time to 'isolate' this reading and thereby filter out potential 'continuation bias' from the stats.
-Custom input start hour may not match to your chart at first, but this is not a concern: simply increment/decrement your input until you get the desired start time line on the chart; assuming your timezone settings for chart and indicator are matching, all will then work properly as designed.
-Use the the lines and labels along with bar-replay to verify HoD/LoD hours are printing correctly and table is populating correctly.
-Hour 'buckets' represent the start of said hour. i.e. hour 14 would be populated if HoD or LoD formed between 14:00 and 15:00.
-Combined % is simply the average of HoD % and LoD %. So it is the % likelihood of 'extreme of day' occurring in that hour.
-Best results from using this on Hourly charts (sub-hourly => less history; above hourly => less precision).
-Note that lower tier Tradingview subscriptions will get less data history. Premium acounts get 20k bars history => circa 900 days history on hourly chart for ES1!
-Works nicely on Btc/Usd too: any 24hr assets this will give meaningful data (whereas some commodities, such as Lean Hogs which only trade 5hrs in a day, will yield less meaningful data).
Example usage on S&P (ES1! 1hr chart): manual day start time of 11pm; New York timezone; Visual aid lines and labels toggled on. HoD LoD hour timings with 920 days history:
Statistics
AlexD Intraday market footprintThe indicator shows probability of a moving average non reversal at certain moment of day.
IMF_Predict line shows the probability of a reversal for the specified period.
moving average - period/2 shifted sma of typical price ( (close+high+low)/3 ).
Parameters:
Number of days - previous days to calculate the probability
SMA filter period - chart smoothing period
IMF smooth period - additional indicator smoothing after calculation
IMF predict period - period for calculating the probability of a reversal in the next N bars
Skip N hours in days(optimisation) - I recommend a half of the normal session time. Low values - long calculation time, High values - skipping days.
Stablecoins market capA simple indicator that displays either the aggregated market cap of the top five stablecoins, or it displays all coins at once (look in the settings).
Because of limitations with the sourced data the indicator only works on the daily timeframe or higher.
CE - Market Performance TableThe 𝓜𝓪𝓻𝓴𝓮𝓽 𝓟𝓮𝓻𝓯𝓸𝓻𝓶𝓪𝓷𝓬𝓮 𝓣𝓪𝓫𝓵𝓮 is a sophisticated market tool designed to provide valuable insights into the current market trends and the approximate current position in the Macroeconomic Regime.
Furthermore the 𝓜𝓪𝓻𝓴𝓮𝓽 𝓟𝓮𝓻𝓯𝓸𝓻𝓶𝓪𝓷𝓬𝓮 𝓣𝓪𝓫𝓵𝓮 provides the Correlation Implied Trend for the Asset on the Chart. Lastly it provides information about current "RISK ON" or "RISK OFF" periods.
Methodology:
𝓜𝓪𝓻𝓴𝓮𝓽 𝓟𝓮𝓻𝓯𝓸𝓻𝓶𝓪𝓷𝓬𝓮 𝓣𝓪𝓫𝓵𝓮 tracks the 15 underlying Stock ETF's to identify their performance and puts the combined performances together to visualize 42MACRO's GRID Equity Model.
For this it uses the below ETF's:
Dividends (SPHD)
Low Beta (SPLV)
Quality (QUAL)
Defensives (DEF)
Growth (IWF)
High Beta (SPHB)
Cyclicals (IYT, IWN)
Value (IWD)
Small Caps (IWM)
Mid Caps (IWR)
Mega Cap Growth (MGK)
Size (OEF)
Momentum (MTUM)
Large Caps (IWB)
Overall Settings:
The main time values you want to change are:
Correlation Length
- Defines the time horizon for the Correlation Table
ROC Period
- Defines the time horizon for the Performance Table
Normalization lookback
- Defines the time horizon for the Trend calculation of the ETF's
- For longer term Trends over weeks or months a length of 50 is usually pretty accurate
Visuals:
There is a variety of options to change the visual settings of what is being plotted and the two table positions and additional considerations.
Everything that is relevant in the underlying logic that can help comprehension can be visualized with these options.
Market Correlation:
The Market Correlation Table takes the Correlation of the above ETF's to the Asset on the Chart, it furthermore uses the Normalized KAMA Oscillator by IkkeOmar to analyse the current trend of every single ETF.
It then Implies a Correlation based on the Trend and the Correlation to give a probabilistically adjusted expectation for the future Chart Asset Movement. This is strengthened by taking the average of all Implied Trends.
With this the Correlation Table provides valuable insights about probabilistically likely Movement of the Asset, for Traders and Investors alike, over the defined time duration.
Market Performance:
𝓜𝓪𝓻𝓴𝓮𝓽 𝓟𝓮𝓻𝓯𝓸𝓻𝓶𝓪𝓷𝓬𝓮 𝓣𝓪𝓫𝓵𝓮 is the actual valuable part of this Indicator.
It provides valuable information about the current market environment (whether it's risk on or risk off), the rough GRID models from 42MACRO and the actual market performance.
This allows you to obtain a deeper understanding of how the market works and makes it simple to identify the actual market direction.
Utility:
The 𝓜𝓪𝓻𝓴𝓮𝓽 𝓟𝓮𝓻𝓯𝓸𝓻𝓶𝓪𝓷𝓬𝓮 𝓣𝓪𝓫𝓵𝓮 is divided in 4 Sections which are the GRID regimes:
Economic Growth:
Goldilocks
Reflation
Economic Contraction:
Inflation
Deflation
Top 5 Equity Style Factors:
Are the values green for a specific Column? If so then the market reflects the corresponding GRID behavior.
Bottom 5 Equity Style Factors:
Are the values red for a specific Column? If so then the market reflects the corresponding GRID behavior.
So if we have Goldilocks as current regime we would see green values in the Top 5 Goldilocks Cells and red values in the Bottom 5 Goldilocks Cells.
You will find that Reflation will look similar, as it is also a sign of Economic Growth.
Same is the case for the two Contraction regimes.
Webby's RSI 2.0Webby's RSI (Really Simple Indicator) 2.0 or version 5.150 as Mike himself calls it, builds upon the original Webby RSI by changing the way we measure extension from the 21-day exponential moving average.
Instead using the percentage of the low versus the 21-day exponential moving average, version 2 uses a multiple of the securities 50 day ATR (average true range) to determine the extension.
Version 2.0 also comes with some new additions, such as measuring the high vs 21-day exponential moving average when a security is below it, as well as an ATR extension from the 10-day simple moving average that Mike looks to as a guide to take partials.
Binary Option Strategy Tester with Martingale-Basic V.2In Binary options, strategy testing is a bit different. The strategy result depends upon expiry intervals and payout ratio.
My previous script was a try to resolve this but has some bugs in specific choices. The new version overcame those and added some new features useful for binary option strategy testing.
Assumption:
We are opening position at next candle after signal come
Chart interval is option expiry time.
We are taking the position at opening price
Our call will be profitable if we get a green candle and put will be profitable if we get a red candle
We can open only one trade at a time. So if we are in trade, subsequent signals will be ignored.
All Input Options:
Test Call/Put individually or both. Default BOTH
Select up to 5 Martingale levels. Default 2
Type of Martingale Trade. Default “SAME”
“SAME”: If you are trading CALL and incur a loss, you are taking CALL in subsequent Martingale levels.
“OPSITE”: if you are trading CALL and incur a loss, you are taking PUT in subsequent Martingale levels.
“FOLLOW CANDLE COLOR”: You are following candle color in Martingale levels, i.e if the loss candle is RED, you are taking PUT in subsequent candles.
“OPPOSITE CANDLE COLOR”: You are taking opposite candle color trade, i.e if the loss candle is RED, you are taking CALL in subsequent candle.
Select Specific Trading Session. Please select “USE SPECIFIC SESSION”. Default: TRUE
Put the investment amount per option. Default: 10
Payout ratio. Default: 80%
The strategy is taken from Vdub Binary Options SniperVX v1 (by @vdubus). I have deleted extra parts and kept only the necessary parts.
Result Table
Signal and Win Levels:
Signal and Loss:
Please note that Binary options trading is very risky. You must be aware of the risk and be willing to accept them in order to invest in binary options. Only invest what you can afford to lose. The past performance of any trading system, strategy, or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Upgraded WatermarkThis mimics the built in watermark feature, but adds the ability to change location as well as see an equities sector and industry group.
Cycles AnalysisI strongly believe in cycles, so I wanted to create something that would give a visual representation of bull/bear markets and give a prediction based on the previous data. It's up to you how to decide what is a bull/bear cycle. There is no single rule for all assets because 20% drop in SP500 starts a bear market in traditional markets, while 35% drop for Bitcoin is a Tuesday. You have two options on how to decide when markets turn: either by a % change (traditional definition) or if there is no new high/low after X days. A softer version to show periods of no new highs/lows is to use the Stagnation option. Stagnation periods hava the same logic as the cycle change by X days: if there is no new high/low then we treat this period as a stagnation. The difference is that stagnation periods do not change cycle directions and do not participate in calculations.
The script also draws a possible "predictions" zone where the current cycle might end up. There is no magic here, it just takes previous cycles' size to draw the possible boundaries. If you decide to use percentiles then the box area will be taken from the percentiles calculations, otherwise it will come from the full data. "x" in the predictions zone represents a target mean (average) value, "o" represents a target median value.
A few things to keep in mind:
- this script is not supposed to be used in trading. It was created for analysis. It repaints. And when I say "it repaints" - it might like repaint the last 6 months of data if a new low comes and we are in a stagnation period (aka not a financial advice).
- it doesn't work with replays as it does calculations only once on the last candle.
- you need at least 3 periods to be able to calculate percentiles. And after this it will remove at least 1 period on each side. Which means that 90 percentile will not be a real 90 percentile until you have enough periods for it to be (20 in this specific case).
- it assumes that a year = 360 days, and a month = 30 days. So the duration presentation might not be exact, until you move to the day level.
- I had macro analysis in mind when I created the script, but nothing stops you from using it in a 1m time frame for BTC. Just change the time duration presentation.
- the last period is not finished, so it doesn't participate in calculations.
Trend Correlation HeatmapHello everyone!
I am excited to release my trend correlation heatmap, or trend heatmap for short.
Per usual, I think its important to explain the theory before we get into the use of the indicator, so let's get into the theory!
The theory:
So what is a correlation?
Correlation is the relationship one variable has to another. Correlations are the basis of everything I do as a quantitative trader. From the correlation between the same variables (i.e. autocorrelation), the correlation between other variables (i.e. VIX and SPY, SPY High and SPY Low, DXY and ES1! close, etc.) and, as well, the correlation between price and time (time series correlation).
This may sound very familiar to you, especially if you are a user, observer or follower of my ideas and/or indicators. Ninety-five percent of my indicators are a function of one of those three things. Whether it be a time series based indicator (i.e.my time series indicator), whether it be autocorrelation (my autoregressive cloud indicator or my autocorrelation oscillator) or whether it be regressive in nature (i.e. my SPY Volume weighted close, or even my expected move which uses averages in lieu of regressive approaches but is foundational in regression principles. Or even my VIX oscillator which relies on the premise of correlations between tickers.) So correlation is extremely important to me and while its true I am more of a regression trader than anything, I would argue that I am more of a correlation trader, because correlations are the backbone of how I develop math models of stocks.
What I am trying to stress here is the importance of correlations. They really truly are foundational to any type of quantitative analysis for stocks. And as such, understanding the current relationship a stock has to time is pivotal for any meaningful analysis to be conducted.
So what is correlation to time and what does it tell us?
Correlation to time, otherwise known and commonly referred to as "Time Series", is the relationship a ticker's price has to the passing of time. It is displayed in the traditional Pearson Correlation Coefficient or R value and can be any value from -1 (strong negative relationship, i.e. a strong downtrend) to + 1 (i.e. a strong positive relationship, i.e. a strong uptrend). The higher or lower the value the stronger the up or downtrend is.
As such, correlation to time tells us two very important things. These are:
a) The direction of the stock; and
b) The strength of the trend.
Let's take a look at an example:
Above we have a chart of QQQ. We can see a trendline that seems to fit well. The questions we ask as traders are:
1. What is the likelihood QQQ breaks down from this trendline?
2. What is the likelihood QQQ continues up?
3. What is the likelihood QQQ does a false breakdown?
There are numerous mathematical approaches we can take to answer these questions. For example, 1 and 2 can be answered by use of a Cumulative Distribution Density analysis (CDDA) or even a linear or loglinear regression analysis and 3 can be answered, more or less, with a linear regression analysis and standard error ascertainment, or even just a general comparison using a data science approach (such as cosine similarity or Manhattan distance).
But, the reality is, all 3 of these questions can be visualized, at least in some way, by simply looking at the correlation to time. Let's look at this chart again, this time with the correlation heatmap applied:
If we look at the indicator we can see some pivotal things. These are:
1. We have 4, very strong uptrends that span both higher AND lower timeframes. We have a strong uptrend of 0.96 on the 5 minute, 50 candle period. We have a strong uptrend at the 300 candle lookback period on the 1 minute, we have a strong uptrend on the 100 day lookback on the daily timeframe period and we have a strong uptrend on the 5 minute on the 500 candle lookback period.
2. By comparison, we have 3 downtrends, all of which have correlations less than the 4 uptrends. All of the downtrends have a correlation above -0.8 (which we would want lower than -0.8 to be very strong), and all of the uptrends are greater than + 0.80.
3. We can also see that the uptrends are not confined to the smaller timeframes. We have multiple uptrends on multiple timeframes and both short term (50 to 100 candles) and long term (up to 500 candles).
4. The overall trend is strengthening to the upside manifested by a positive Max Change and a Positive Min change (to be discussed later more in-depth).
With this, we can see that QQQ is actually very strong and likely will continue at least some upside. If we let this play out:
We continued up, had one test and then bounced.
Now, I want to specify, this indicator is not a panacea for all trading. And in relation to the 3 questions posed, they are best answered, at least quantitatively, not only by correlation but also by the aforementioned methods (CDDA, etc.) but correlation will help you get a feel for the strength or weakness present with a stock.
What are some tangible applications of the indicator?
For me, this indicator is used in many ways. Let me outline some ways I generally apply this indicator in my day and swing trading:
1. Gauging the strength of the stock: The indictor tells you the most prevalent behavior of the stock. Are there more downtrends than uptrends present? Are the downtrends present on the larger timeframes vs uptrends on the shorter indicating a possible bullish reversal? or vice versa? Are the trends strengthening or weakening? All of these things can be visualized with the indicator.
2. Setting parameters for other indicators: If you trade EMAs or SMAs, you may have a "one size fits all" approach. However, its actually better to adjust your EMA or SMA length to the actual trend itself. Take a look at this:
This is QQQ on the 1 hour with the 200 EMA with 200 standard deviation bands added. If we look at the heatmap, we can see, yes indeed 200 has a fairly strong uptrend correlation of 0.70. But the strongest hourly uptrend is actually at 400 candles, with a correlation of 0.91. So what happens if we change the EMA length and standard deviation to 400? This:
The exact areas are circled and colour coded. You can see, the 400 offers more of a better reference point of supports and resistances as well as a better overall trend fit. And this is why I never advocate for getting married to a specific EMA. If you are an EMA 200 lover or 21 or 51, know that these are not always the best depending on the trend and situation.
Components of the indicator:
Ah okay, now for the boring stuff. Let's go over the functionality of the indicator. I tried to keep it simple, so it is pretty straight forward. If we open the menu here are our options:
We have the ability to toggle whichever timeframes we want. We also have the ability to toggle on or off the legend that displays the colour codes and the Max and Min highest change.
Max and Min highest change: The max and min highest change simply display the change in correlation over the previous 14 candles. An increasing Max change means that the Max trend is strengthening. If we see an increasing Max change and an increasing Min change (the Min correlation is moving up), this means the stock is bullish. Why? Because the min (i.e. ideally a big negative number) is going up closer to the positives. Therefore, the downtrend is weakening.
If we see both the Max and Min declining (red), that means the uptrend is weakening and downtrend is strengthening. Here are some examples:
Final Thoughts:
And that is the indicator and the theory behind the indicator.
In a nutshell, to summarize, the indicator simply tracks the correlation of a ticker to time on multiple timeframes. This will allow you to make judgements about strength, sentiment and also help you adjust which tools and timeframes you are using to perform your analyses.
As well, to make the indicator more user friendly, I tried to make the colours distinctively different. I was going to do different shades but it was a little difficult to visualize. As such, I have included a toggle-able legend with a breakdown of the colour codes!
That's it my friends, I hope you find it useful!
Safe trades and leave your questions, comments and feedback below!
Price Delta HeatmapThe Price Delta Heatmap is an indicator designed to visualize the price changes of an asset over time. It helps traders identify and analyze significant price movements and potential volatility. The indicator calculates the price delta, which is the difference between the current close price and the previous close price. It then categorizes the price deltas into different color ranges to create a heatmap-like display on the chart.
The indicator uses user-defined thresholds to determine the color ranges. These thresholds represent the minimum price change required for a specific color to be assigned. The thresholds are adjustable to accommodate different asset classes and trading strategies. Positive price deltas are associated with bullish movements, while negative price deltas represent bearish movements.
The indicator plots bars color-coded according to the price delta range it falls into. The color ranges can be customized to match personal preferences or specific trading strategies. Additionally, the indicator includes signal shapes below the bars to highlight significant positive or negative price deltas. Traders can adjust the threshold values based on their preferred sensitivity to price changes. Higher threshold values may filter out minor price movements and focus on more significant shifts, while lower threshold values will capture even minor fluctuations.
****The default settings have the thresholds set to levels of 100, 50, 20, 10, 0, -10, -20, -50, and -100. These numbers are well-suited for assets such as Ethereum or Bitcoin which are larger in price than an asset that has a price of $1.50, for example. To compensate, adjust the thresholds in the settings to reflect the price delta on the desired asset. All coloration and horizontal line plots will adjust to reflect these changes.****
Traders can interpret the Price Delta Heatmap as follows:
-- Bright green bars indicate the highest positive price deltas, suggesting strong bullish price movements.
-- Green bars represent positive price deltas above the third threshold, indicating significant bullish price changes.
-- Olive bars indicate positive price deltas above the second threshold, suggesting moderate bullish price movements.
-- Yellow bars represent positive price deltas above the lowest threshold, indicating minor bullish price changes. This color is reflected on the negative side as well. Yellow bars below zero indicate negative price deltas below the lowest threshold, suggesting minor bearish price changes.
-- White bars represent zero price deltas, indicating no significant price movement.
-- Orange bars represent negative price deltas below the second threshold, indicating moderate bearish price movements.
-- Red bars indicate negative price deltas below the third threshold, suggesting significant bearish price changes.
-- Maroon bars represent the lowest negative price deltas, indicating strong bearish price movements.
The coloration of the Price Delta line itself is determined by the line's relation to the second positive and second negative thresholds (default +/- 20) - if the line is above the second positive threshold, the line is colored lime (and is reflected in a lime arrow at the bottom of the indicator); if the line is below the second negative threshold, the line is colored fuchsia (also reflected as an arrow); if the line is between thresholds, it is colored aqua.
The Price Delta Heatmap can be used in various trading strategies and applications. Some potential use cases include:
-- Trend identification : The indicator helps traders identify periods of high volatility and potential trend reversals.
-- Volatility analysis : By observing the color changes in the heatmap, traders can gauge the volatility of an asset and adjust their risk management strategies accordingly.
-- Confirmation tool : The indicator can be used as a confirmation tool alongside other technical indicators, such as trend-following indicators or oscillators.
-- Breakout trading : Traders can look for price delta bars of a specific color range to identify potential breakout opportunities.
However, it's important to note that the Price Delta Heatmap has certain limitations. These include:
-- Lagging nature : The indicator relies on historical price data, which means it may not provide real-time insights into price movements.
-- Sensitivity to thresholds : The choice of threshold values affects the indicator's sensitivity and may vary depending on the asset being traded. It requires experimentation and adjustment to find optimal values.
-- Market conditions : The indicator's effectiveness may vary depending on market conditions, such as low liquidity or sudden news events.
Traders should consider using the Price Delta Heatmap in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and incorporate risk management strategies to enhance their trading decisions.
Currency Conversion ChartReleasing this utility indicator I made for myself and thought others may find it helpful.
It is a simple currency conversion indicator. I personally trade both the TSX and the NYSE and hold both CAD and USD. As such, when I take positions in either or, I like to track how the currency I hold is affecting my position.
What the indicator does:
So, as indicated above, it converts a ticker's candlestick chart into the designated currency. You can either manually set the currency exchange rate, or search the currency exchange chart on Tradingview and it will auto-convert:
Purple arrow: The purple arrow points to the auto-input. You can search the currency you want to convert and it will automatically apply the conversion. It defaults to USD to CAD, but you can do USD to JPY, AUD to CAD, whatever currency you want provided it is available on tradingview. Alternatively, you can select manual conversion and input the manual conversion rate to apply.
Green Arrow: The green arrow refers to the conversion type. The indicator will default to static auto. This will pull the previous daily close. As currency trades at all hours, real-time is not advisable because the currency is in constant flux. Static will provide more stable results. However, you can toggle between the two. You can also just toggle Manual conversion.
Yellow arrow and red arrow: These pertain to position management. The indicator will display the change in the currency price over the designated amount of days. If you want to know how much the currency has changed in price over the last 7 or 20 days, simply put that value in the change input.
When you click manage position, you can fill out the position size variable and put the number of days you have had the position in the change parameter. This is the cost of your position. It can be options or shares. It will then adjust your position cost for the current change in the currency based on the number of days you have held it.
The indicator can be viewed on any timeframe and you can see how the conversion price compares to the listed price.
And that's basically the indicator! Its a simple utility indicator and hopefully some people will find use from it like I do!
Safe trades everyone, take care.
Perp/Spot % SpreadTo be used on BINANCE USDT PERPETUAL charts.
Automatically pulls the equivalent Binance Spot pair and plots the Spread of the Close in % terms( Value of 1 means 1% difference from Perp price)
-Positive value means Spot is trading x% ABOVE the PERP
-Negative value means Spot is trading x% UNDER the PERP
Autocorrelation OscillatorReleasing the autocorrelation oscillator.
NOTE! Please be sure to read the description. This is a theoretical indicator and its important to understand the theory behind its use.
About the indicator:
Before getting into the indicator and its functionality, its important to discuss the theoretical underpinnings of the indicator.
The autocorrelation oscillator operates on two theories of market behaviour that go hand in hand. Those theories are the market efficiency theory and the random walk theory (or hypothesis ).
Market efficiency theory: The market efficiency theory or "Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)" postulates that all available information is reflected in a ticker's price almost instantaneously and thus it is impossible for an investor or trader to get ahead of the market because we cannot respond to the speed that the market responds. Of course, there are many holes in this theory, the most notable being that the market is a function of humans. Absent humans and their technological integrations into the market, the market would cease to react at all. But that's besides the point. This is a widely accepted theory and one in which I can mathematically observe through statistical tests. The truth behind this theory is the market is efficient for responding to evolving economic and financial information, likely owning to huge amounts of computer and algorithmic integration into trading, and thus the market is more efficient than the average person is capable (absent computerized algorithms and integration) of ascertaining nuanced financial and economic circumstances. By the time we the people can appraise information, the market has already acted on it. And that is the main premise of the EMH.
The next theory is the Random Walk Theory or Hypothesis (RWH). This builds on the EMH and essentially postulates that the market reacts so quickly to price in current circumstances that it is too random for people to truly exploit and benefit from.
The result of these two theories is two-fold and can be summarized as such:
a) The market behaves in a chaotic fashion that is seemingly random and is incapable of being predicted effectively; and
b) The market is more efficient than a person in incorporating key fundamental information, contributing to the high degree of seemingly random behaviour.
So, how does this help us?
It is said, because of the EMH and the RWH, the only way to truly exploit the market for profit is by:
a) Buying and holding and investing under the bias that stocks will eventually rise in value; or
b) For short term trading, exploiting the pricing anomalies within the data.
So how do we exploit pricing anomalies within the data?
Well, in my own research on market efficiency and behaviour, I have identified many ways of figuring out some anomalies. One of the most effective ways is by looking at simple correlation of lagged values, or autocorrelation for short.
What is autocorrelation and how to use it in relation to EMH and RWH?
Autocorrelation refers to the correlative relationship among the values in a series. Put simply, its the relationship of the same variable over time. For example, if we wanted to look at the auto-correlation of a ticker's high price, we would take, say, 5 to 7 previous high prices and correlate them with the current high price in a series dataset. If the EMH and RWH are true, the correlation among all the variables should have an average less than 0.5 or greater than -0.5. This would indicate true randomness in the dataset and thus an efficient market.
However, if the average of all of the sum's of these correlations are greater than or equal to 0.5 or less than or equal to -0.5, that indicates there is a high degree of autocorrelation and thus the EMH ad RWH is being invalidated as the market is not operating efficiently. This is an anomaly and this anomaly can be exploited.
So how do we exploit it?
Well, when the EMH and RWH hypothesis is being invalidated, we can expect what I coin as a "Regression to Chaos" i.e. the market will revert back to an efficient equilibrium state. So if we have a high correlation of the lagged variables and a strong uptrend or downtrend correlation, we can expect an inefficient market to correct back to an efficient market (i.e. have a reversal from the current trend).
So how does the indicator work?
The indicator measures the lagged correlation of the previous 5 highs and lows of a ticker. A high correlation among all of the highs and lows that exceeds 0.8 would be an invalidation of the EMH and RWH and thus signal a correction to come (i.e. a Regression to Chaos).
The indicator will display this by changing colour. Red for a bearish reversal and green for a bullish. Let's take a look below using the ticker MSFT:
Above we can see the indicator identifying observed inefficiencies within the MSFT ticker on the 1 minute timeframe. The green vertical lines correspond to potential bullish reversals as a result of bearish inefficiencies, the red correspond to bearish reversals as a result of bullish inefficiencies.
You can see these lead to reversals within the ticker.
Components of the indicator:
In the chart above we see the following that are being indicated by arrows:
Red Arrows: Show the identified inefficiencies. Red for bullish inefficiencies (i.e. bearish reversal), green for bearish inefficiencies (i.e. bullish reversal)
Yellow Arrow: The lagged variable chart. This will display the current correlation among all the lagged variables the indicator is assessing.
Teal arrow: Displays the current strength of the trend by correlating the trend to time. A strong negative value (i.e. a value less than or equal to -0.5) indicates a strong downtrend, a strong positive value indicates the inverse.
You can unselect the data-tables in the settings menu if you just want to view the correlation line itself. This part of the indicator is customizable. You can also define the lookback period; however, it is strongly recommended to leave it at 14 as this maintains the use of this indicator as an oscillator.
And that is the indicator! Let me know your comments, questions and feedback below.
Safe trades everyone!
Regression Candle Conversion IndicatorHey everyone!
I got a pseudo-request a while ago for something like this, essentially the ability to track where another ticker would fall based on an alternative ticker.
I did create my ticker correlation reference indicator which directly looks at the correlation between 2 tickers. However, this is an indicator that operates on the same principle but is more pragmatic for trading.
What does it do?
Well, in keeping with the theme of what I call my indicators, this has a title that explains exactly what it does, "Regression Candle Conversion Indicator" or "RCCI" for short. It uses simple regression to convert one ticker to another. So while you are tracking one indicator, you can see where the expected value should fall on the other.
Applications?
The big application of this for me is being able to track where SPY/QQQ or IWM is falling during overnight trading sessions. Extended trading hours close at 8 pm NYSE time. After that, you have to guess where futures prices will put the ETF version of it. This indicator will allow you to track where, theoretically, the underlying ETF ticker will fall based on the current trading behaviour.
Some other applications are just the ability to track how similar or dissimilar one stock is to the other. For example, if we wanted to trade, say, Boeing using shares of DFEN or ITA (a defence specific ETF), here is what we get:
In the chart above we can see BA as the primary chart and ITA as the RCCI converted chart. We will see 2 major things that should cause us concern.
First, there is a really poor correlation between the two tickers. This indicates that ITA may not produce the best exposure if I am directly looking for Boeing exposure.
Second, there is a wide standard error. this means that the results that the RCCI is providing may be skewed up to +/- 2 points (as indicated by the standard error chart).
Let's take a look at BA and DFEN:
In the above, we can see that the correlation is not great, but the standard error is quite low.
This means that, while this may not be the best ticker for Boeing exposure, the RCCI is able to confidently calculate the ticker within +/- 0.50 cents based on BA's underlying data.
However, its important to note that it is not advisable to really rely on these results if the correlation is less than + 0.5 or greater than -0.5.
Let's take a look at a few more examples:
Above we have BA (NYSE) vs BA (NEO TSX CAD Hedged). We can see the strong relationship and high confidence calculations.
And some others:
SPX (primary) and ES1! (secondary):
RTY and IWM:
ES1! and SPY:
Customizations:
As you can see above, it is pretty straight forward. There are 3 options:
Lookback Length: Determines the length of assessment for correlation and the regression assessment.
Manual Ticker Input: The indicator will pull the data from your current chart and compare it against a manually selected indicator. You must tell the indicator which ticker you are comparing against.
Data Table: This will show you the data table which contains the standard error assessment and the correlation assessment. These are determined by your lookback length. The lookback length is defaulted to 500.
And that's the indicator! It's pretty straight forward. Hopefully you find it helpful, especially if you track futures during overnight sessions.
Leave your comments/questions and feedback below.
Thanks for checking it out!
Total ReturnThis script calculates a Total Return index for stocks that shows the total performance of a stock, incorporating returns from both the share price and dividends.
To understand this, consider the situation where you invest in a 5% div stock and hold the position for 10 years. Assume at the end of 10 years, the price has gone up by 50%. A price chart will then show a 50% return, but in reality the investor has also received 50% of the initial investment in dividends, making his total return substantially more. Exactly how much more depends on whether the investor reinvested the dividends in the stock, or just held them as cash. If the former, his total return will be well over 100%; in the latter, his total return will be 100% exactly.
There are 2 input options:
- Dividend type: allows the user to choose "gross" or "net". Note that most stocks will have a "gross" data series whereas many will not have a "net" series.
- Reinvestment: allows the user to choose whether dividends should be reinvested in the stock ("Yes") or held in cash ("No").
Total return formula:
- With reinvestment: log((today's closing price + dividends paid today) / (yesterday's closing price))
- Without reinvestment: log(today's closing price / yesterday's closing price) + log (dividends paid thus far / first closing price)
Linear Correlation Coefficient W/ MAs and Significance TestsThis Linear CC takes into account the log-normal distribution of stock prices and performs Pearson correlation on that data set. It also smoothens the results into an easy to read oscillator, and performs a two-tail t-test on the correlation coefficient data (with a = 0.05) to determine the significance of the coefficients. Significant results are shown in a solid yellow color while insignificant results are shown in a dark yellow color (you can eyeball this with a normal LCC by looking at results around -0.5 to +0.5).
Two MAs are provided as well for a quick trend analysis. You can reduce the lookback period, but it defaults to 31 for the sake of statistical standards.
ASG Delta %This utility script provides a convenient way to calculate the percentage gain or drop of a token's price within a user-defined date range. It eliminates the need for manual measurement on individual charts, saving time and effort.
The script is particularly valuable when integrated into a daily token scanning routine for watchlists. By comparing the significant gains or drops among different tokens, traders can identify potential trading opportunities.
Simply select the desired date range, and the script will identify the highest and lowest price points achieved during that period. It then shows a visual representation in the form of a bullish or bearish box, displaying the percentage change (delta %). If the current price falls within the box's upper and lower bounds, additional percentage information can be shown in either the 'normal' or 'reverse' mode.
For instance, if a token experiences a -52.35% drop, enabling the 'Reverse' setting will reveal a potential 109.86% gain (from the low), or a 76.02% gain (from current price) or a potential drop of -16.5% (from current price) etc.. Having these basic statistics available, without having to manually chart them, especially during prolonged bear or bull markets, enables traders to make informed decisions and position themselves for more profitable trades.
I hope you find this script valuable. Your comments and recommendations are welcome as they will help improve the script's functionality further.
Machine Learning : Torben's Moving Median KNN BandsWhat is Median Filtering ?
Median filtering is a non-linear digital filtering technique, often used to remove noise from an image or signal. Such noise reduction is a typical pre-processing step to improve the results of later processing (for example, edge detection on an image). Median filtering is very widely used in digital image processing because, under certain conditions, it preserves edges while removing noise (but see the discussion below), also having applications in signal processing.
The main idea of the median filter is to run through the signal entry by entry, replacing each entry with the median of neighboring entries. The pattern of neighbors is called the "window", which slides, entry by entry, over the entire signal. For one-dimensional signals, the most obvious window is just the first few preceding and following entries, whereas for two-dimensional (or higher-dimensional) data the window must include all entries within a given radius or ellipsoidal region (i.e. the median filter is not a separable filter).
The median filter works by taking the median of all the pixels in a neighborhood around the current pixel. The median is the middle value in a sorted list of numbers. This means that the median filter is not sensitive to the order of the pixels in the neighborhood, and it is not affected by outliers (very high or very low values).
The median filter is a very effective way to remove noise from images. It can remove both salt and pepper noise (random white and black pixels) and Gaussian noise (randomly distributed pixels with a Gaussian distribution). The median filter is also very good at preserving edges, which is why it is often used as a pre-processing step for edge detection.
However, the median filter can also blur images. This is because the median filter replaces each pixel with the value of the median of its neighbors. This can cause the edges of objects in the image to be smoothed out. The amount of blurring depends on the size of the window used by the median filter. A larger window will blur more than a smaller window.
The median filter is a very versatile tool that can be used for a variety of tasks in image processing. It is a good choice for removing noise and preserving edges, but it can also blur images. The best way to use the median filter is to experiment with different window sizes to find the setting that produces the desired results.
What is this Indicator ?
K-nearest neighbors (KNN) is a simple, non-parametric machine learning algorithm that can be used for both classification and regression tasks. The basic idea behind KNN is to find the K most similar data points to a new data point and then use the labels of those K data points to predict the label of the new data point.
Torben's moving median is a variation of the median filter that is used to remove noise from images. The median filter works by replacing each pixel in an image with the median of its neighbors. Torben's moving median works in a similar way, but it also averages the values of the neighbors. This helps to reduce the amount of blurring that can occur with the median filter.
KNN over Torben's moving median is a hybrid algorithm that combines the strengths of both KNN and Torben's moving median. KNN is able to learn the underlying distribution of the data, while Torben's moving median is able to remove noise from the data. This combination can lead to better performance than either algorithm on its own.
To implement KNN over Torben's moving median, we first need to choose a value for K. The value of K controls how many neighbors are used to predict the label of a new data point. A larger value of K will make the algorithm more robust to noise, but it will also make the algorithm less sensitive to local variations in the data.
Once we have chosen a value for K, we need to train the algorithm on a dataset of labeled data points. The training dataset will be used to learn the underlying distribution of the data.
Once the algorithm is trained, we can use it to predict the labels of new data points. To do this, we first need to find the K most similar data points to the new data point. We can then use the labels of those K data points to predict the label of the new data point.
KNN over Torben's moving median is a simple, yet powerful algorithm that can be used for a variety of tasks. It is particularly well-suited for tasks where the data is noisy or where the underlying distribution of the data is unknown.
Here are some of the advantages of using KNN over Torben's moving median:
KNN is able to learn the underlying distribution of the data.
KNN is robust to noise.
KNN is not sensitive to local variations in the data.
Here are some of the disadvantages of using KNN over Torben's moving median:
KNN can be computationally expensive for large datasets.
KNN can be sensitive to the choice of K.
KNN can be slow to train.
Ratio To Average - The Quant ScienceRatio To Average - The Quant Science is a quantitative indicator that calculates the percentage ratio of the market price in relation to a reference average. The indicator allows the calculation of the ratio using four different types of averages: SMA, EMA, WMA, and HMA. The ratio is represented by a series of histograms that highlight periods when the ratio is positive (in green) and periods when the ratio is negative (in red).
What is the Ratio to Average?
The Ratio to Average is a measure that tracks the price movements with one of its averages, calculating how much the price is above or below its own average, in percentage terms.
USER INTERFACE
Lenght: it adjusts the number of bars to include in the calculation of the average.
Moving Average: it allows you to choose the type of average to use.
Color Up/Color Down : it allows you to choose the color of the indicator for positive and negative ratios.
Currency ConverterWhat it is?
It's a Currency converter/Exchange rate Viewer.
How it works?
You put the main currency and the other currency in setting then it will show the converted rate in chart.
Daily data infoThis indicator can:
- Indicate on which day of the week created the High or Low
- Based on the bars you set, sum the times in which (The day of the week you want to test makes the Weekly High or Low)
- Has the option to Sum or calculate the %
Position Size Calculator (EzAlgo)Upon adding the indicator to the chart, you will be prompted to place entry price lines, stop loss price line, and multiple take profit price lines by clicking at the desired price level on the chart.
Section Summaries
Table Settings: Allows users to select position and font size from drop-down menus. Displays current settings and potential profit/loss values.
Price Points: Users can set their Entry and select whether they want to include a DCA entry, Stop Loss price, Liquidation Buffer %, Take Profit levels and the amount of position to close at each level.
Risk Management: Users fill out their Account Size, set their Risk % (or fixed $ amount) for each Entry, set Manual Leverage, or allow the indicator to automatically choose the leverage based on the Stop Loss price distance from Entry and the Risk % per Entry.
User-Input Descriptions
DCA Price: The price at which users initiate their second, equally sized and leveraged position when using a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy. Upon reaching the DCA Price, the Entry Price adjusts to the Avg Price, calculated as the midpoint between initial and DCA entries.
Liquidation Buffer: A pre-set percentage that determines how close to the Stop Loss a position can get before it's liquidated. This assists the Auto Leverage feature in optimizing the leverage amount according to risk tolerance.
Risk per Entry: The proportion of the account, in % or a fixed dollar amount, that users are willing to risk for each trading position. If DCA is checked, this will assume users are entering with half of the total position size per entry.
Automatic Leverage: Auto Leverage automatically determines the optimal leverage level for a trade based on the user's Stop Loss price distance from the Entry point and the user-defined risk percentage per Entry. It also considers a user-defined Liquidation Buffer, which is a preset percentage determining how close to the Stop Loss a position can get before it's liquidated. This tool allows traders to optimize their leverage amount according to their risk tolerance.
Max Leverage: The highest leverage level users are willing to use, even if the exchange permits higher. This limit applies when the Auto Leverage feature is enabled.
Seasonal Performance for Stocks & CryptoThe Seasonal Performance indicator quickly allows you to see if you are in a bullish or bearish time of year for an underlying security and where the current performance stacks up compared to the same time of year historically. Table is fully customizable from colors to what data to see.
Table Displays
Average Performance
Best Performance
Worst Performance
Last Performance
Current Performance
Note this indicator will only work with Stocks, ETF's, Index's or Crypto.
