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AUDJPY short triggered

アップデート済

PBOC Reference Rate was big surprise.
Risk off mode engaged by the markets.

Looking for two TP's, the 1.618 and 2.618 extensions of the initial impulse down.

ノート

Finally, some movement in the right direction.
I was getting rather frustrated watching risk off sentiment being unable to push this down.
But upon after some analysis, I now see what the hold up has been, this Red zone of Fibs.

Close up of the fib zone that is of interest, in the last few hours of the week

And blowing it up vertically to look at the fibs in play.

Notice the various strong fib lines defining various boundaries.
And notice the precise reflections of the energy

That many precise pings now and in the past tells me those are very important fib lines.
Thus my relief that price has broken below the band finally.
Not a strong break, but that was LATE FRIDAY, so very little volume but enough I guess.

ノート

Monday open brought some more downward movement.
But now retesting Monthly Pivot.
NOT an impenetrable barrier so much as a take profit zone.
If enough shorts close, it might cause a relief rally.

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AJ Fib multiples still valid.

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Hoping to see this zone break soon (bounce looks weak so far),
and then some quick progress to the next zone or two down would be nice.

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I have placed a tight SL on 50% of the position, just above current price

If it does trip, will look to put it back on after a measureable bounce. If not hit, great, will keep riding. This bounce is not looking strong at all, but it is not pushing down either :(

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I think my SL is about to be hit.
Will book profit on 50% of position, move SL to BE on the rest.

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Sure enough, SL hit, 50% closed, about 30 pips profit.
SL at BE on rest.

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aaaand of course, it takes my SL and continues down :(
But that is why I dont go ALL IN or ALL OUT at any time.
Now waiting to see if breaks the support zone already established.

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Looking at the Pivots:

Pivot theory says that if the price starts the week around the weekly Central in a bear trend, then price should reach somewhere between the weekly M2 and S2 pivots. That is a where a lot of traders will take profit. So I expect to ride this short until late in the week to see if I can reach that zone.

ノート

Next, I added the pivot zones to my Fib Zone plot.