AUDUSD_106 2024.11.04 11:23:04 Trading Signal SELL

11月4日

FrankPro Signal for AUDUSD_106

Type: Screen
Signal: SELL
TP: 0.6557
SL: 0.6601
Entry Price: 0.65955

Analysis for AUDUSD

Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Strong Down LT=Probably Up

Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term):
[Method0] ST=Down LT=Up
[Method1] ST=Down LT=Down
[Method2] ST=Down LT=Up


Analysis Method(0)

Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the AUD/USD pair's expected price movement:

**Short-term (next few days to a week):**

* The pair is expected to attempt a decline and test the support area near 0.6475.
* The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6627 is currently acting as resistance, favoring a continuation of the downside trend.
* However, a breakout of the resistance area and closing of prices above 0.6605 could confirm growth.
* Given the mixed signals, I would say the price is likely to **stay the same** or experience a **slight decline** in the short term, with a potential target around 0.6475.

**Long-term (next few weeks to a month):**

* A Democratic win in the US election could push AUD/USD higher towards 0.6850.
* The RBA's expected decision to keep interest rates steady at 4.35% and the labour market strength suggest a potential for rate cuts in early 2025, which could support the AUD.
* A sustained break above the 200-day SMA and horizontal resistance around 0.6700-0.6720 could negate downside risks and pave the way for a rally towards 0.6850.
* Given the potential for a Democratic win and the RBA's supportive stance, I would say the price is likely to **go up** in the long term, with a potential target around 0.6850.

Result: [Method0] ST=Down LT=Up


Analysis Method(1)

Based on the provided analysis, here are my conclusions for the AUD/USD pair:

**Short-term forecast (next few days/week):**
The price is expected to go **down** initially, potentially testing the support level near 0.6475, due to the bearish correction and selling pressure from the US dollar's gains. However, a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel or the support line on the RSI could signal further growth, targeting levels above 0.6775.

**Long-term forecast (month/year):**
The price is expected to **stay the same** or experience a **slight decline**. The monthly forecast for November 2024 suggests a slight decline to 0.657 by the end of the month, with an average of 0.658. The fundamental factors, such as the Australian dollar's pressure due to US dollar gains and skepticism over China's economic stimulus measures, may contribute to a stable or slightly bearish trend in the long term.

Please note that these conclusions are based on the provided analysis and may not reflect the actual market movements, as the foreign exchange market is highly volatile and subject to various factors.

Result: [Method1] ST=Down LT=Down


Analysis Method(2)

Based on the provided data, I will analyze the AUD/USD pair's price movement expectations for both short-term and long-term.

**Short-term Analysis (next few days to a week)**

* The pair has seen a rebound, trading around 0.6615 - 0.6620, an increase of 0.85% from its Saturday close.
* Technical analysis suggests that the pair is challenging resistance at the 200-day moving average of 0.6628, and a sustained break above this level could lead to a rally.
* However, the moving averages indicate an upward trend, but prices have broken through the area between the signal lines downwards, suggesting pressure from asset sellers.
* The forecast suggests that the pair may attempt to develop a decline and test the support area near the 0.6475 level, followed by an upward rebound.

**Expected Short-term Movement:** Neutral to Slightly Down

The pair may experience a slight decline in the short term, testing the support area near 0.6475, before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth.

**Long-term Analysis (next few weeks to months)**

* The pair's long-term trend is influenced by the upcoming US Presidential election, with a Democratic win potentially pushing AUD/USD higher towards 0.6850.
* Australia's Q3 inflation data showed a decline, which falls within the RBA's target range, and the RBA is expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.35% in the upcoming meeting.
* The cancellation of the growth option for AUD/USD would be a fall and a breakout of the 0.6355 level, indicating a continuation of the fall with a target at the level of 0.6175.

**Expected Long-term Movement:** Up

The pair's long-term trend is expected to be upward, with potential targets above 0.6775 and 0.6850, driven by the US Presidential election and the RBA's steady interest rates. However, a Republican sweep could drive the pair down to around 0.6350.

Result: [Method2] ST=Down LT=Up