BCH-Fibonacci/Wave Analysis-Leading Diagonal-Apex FibMarketWatchによるBITFINEX:BCHUSDの分析

$BITFINEX:BCHUSD is forming the apex of the leading diagnoal.

This Idea is to track the price-action coming out of the the leading diagonal.

For Further Analysis see related idea.

Review:
BITFINEX:BCHUSD 7.62% has been in a bear market since reaching an all-time high in December 2017 (273 days ago).

1. Primary Wave Sequence (Green)
-Wave 1: +347.02%
-Wave 3: +899.29%
-Wave 5: +382.22%
- 133 Days
2. Correction Sequence (Yellow)
-A Wave: 5 Waves (Pink) (-84.87%)
-B Wave: 3 Waves (+197.89%)
-C Wave: 5 Waves (Orange) (-77.95%)
-Fib. Extension (5-A-B)

3. Fibonacci Extension: Wave 1 & Wave 2

4. Wave Sequence Price Increase: 2,290.84%
- $215.00/$4,104.30
- 133 Days

5. Wave 2 Price Decrease= 90.06%
- $4,104.30/$407.90
- 273 Days

6. Fibonacci Time Extension: Wave 1/Wave 5 (Yellow)

The Beginning:

Idea: BCH-BREAKOUT-Imminent

The Correction ended at $426.40 with a sharp reflex followed by a Micro-Wave sequence.

The Micro-Wave was a lower degree Wave 1 & Wave 2.

The 3rd Wave extended over 700% of Wave 1 & Wave 2.

The 4th Wave Correction resulted in what Elliot called a 'diagonal triangle'.

There are two main types of diagonal triangles. One is where the two boundaries of the triangle converge and the other where they diverge. The second type is known as Expanding Diagonal Triangles. Irrespective of whether they are converging or expanding diagonal triangles, if they occur in the first wave position, where they are known as ‘leading diagonal triangle’, the internal waves are made up of 5-3-5-3-5 sub waves. If they occur in the fifth wave position, they are known as ‘ending diagonal triangles’ and the internal waves are made up of 3-3-3-3-3 sub waves. For example, in an uptrend, the ending point of the fourth wave diagonal triangle will be near or even above the top of the third wave. Then all of a sudden, when the ‘e’ wave of the triangle is finished, price will break even higher and the fifth wave will race upwards.

The corrective sequence occurred in the Wave A position making it a leading diagonal .
When it occurs in Wave A position, it becomes a leading diagonal triangle, and when it occurs at the Wave C position, it is an ending diagonal triangle.

A diagonal triangle differs from a regular (horizontal) triangle in that it slopes in the direction of the trend. So when the eventual break out happens, the next move will be in the opposite direction.

The third wave traveled a considerable distance in a short space of time, and the diagonal triangle itself appeared sloping in the direction of the major trend which hints that the 5th Wave will extend.

The internal waves of the correction were 5-3-5.

The correction was also complex by having 2 correction sequences of ABCDE.

Instead of breaking higher the move broke down and consolidated further and formed a larger leading diagonal.

The next wave sequence is estimated to last 259 days till July 1st, 2019.

Cheers!

-AB

ノート

Near-Term Target: $800-$730 (30-90 days)
Long-Term Target: $2800 (180 days)

ノート

S5 Target (Yellow)

ノート

Main Question that comes to my mind is do we breakout of the Leading Diagonal Now...

Or Consolidate further into the Apex

ノート

High Probablity of Breaking out...

Elliot Rule...

Wave 3 CANNOT be the Shortest Wave...

ノート

TRADE:

BUY: $475
SELL: $530
BUY: $475

ノート

Trade Targets are NOT exact. The Trade is for Wave B & C.

Wave B should come very close to Terminal Wave 3. Wave C should bottom at Terminal Wave B. I’m

ノート

Wave A Terminal

ノート

Wave B is Always 3 sub-waves

ノート

Here comes the trade...

ノート

Always be on alert for Extensions...

ノート

Correction was not a flat...

Internals of Waves are extremely important...

ZigZag Correction...

Do NOT Sell!

ノート

Time to break the Leading Triangle?

ノート

5 tiny sub-waves in Wave C?

ノート

New Trade: Sell at Wave 5 Terminal

ノート

Check this out...

Next Move looks nuts...

ノート

Next 36 hours the wave sequence will be complete.

ノート

Above: Extending S1

ノート

Should beginning the move momentarily...

ノート

Price-Action Update.

ノート

Excuse above.

Below:

Leading Diagonal

ノート

Smaller leading diagonal within larger leading diagonal

ノート

Almost at the pinnacle of the leading diagonal

ノート

Here is a better view.

Larger Leading Diagonal = Green

Smaller Leading Diagonal = Blue

ノート

Time for Take-off?

ノート

Price-Action update:

ノート

3rd sub-wave of the higher degree 3rd should be starting now.

ノート

Excuse Above...

ノート

Above: Fib Spiral intersect from Cycle Wave A and B

ノート

Marks the end of Cycle Wave Correction

ノート

Or aka Wave C

ノート

STOP

ノート

Price-Action Update:

ノート

We are beginning Sub-Wave 3 of a higher degree 3rd Wave.

A Fibonacci Spiral gap is opening allowing BCH to move higher (marked by the vertical line).

ノート

Fib Time = 3rd Wave Sequence (Approx. 9 days)

ノート

Correction:
2 days for Lower Degree
9 days for Higher Degree

ノート

Lower Degree - Teal
Higher Degree - Green

ノート

Higher Degree:
Wave 3 Target - $606-$650
Wave 5 Target - $735-$800

ノート

Key Levels:

ノート

Above: Nearing the Apex.

ノート

Breakout Imminent!

ノート

Above: Complex Correction: FLAT + ZIGZAG

ノート

Selling should be over or getting close...

ノート

Live updates to make sure I am right about this move

ノート

Target Hit.

ノート

A few more ticks to go...

ノート

$436 is next target

ノート

Gap opening...

ノート

Price-Action looks good.

Analysis Stands.

Stay the course.

ノート

Wave 5 is looking to extend

ノート

Scenario 1 : 5th Wave Extends
Scenario 2 : Correction

STOP can be placed firmly at $430.49 (Coinbase)

ノート

Scenario 2 occurred, no impact on analysis.

Cheers!

-AB

ノート

Correction: ZigZag instead of Flat

ノート

Reminder: Wave 1 can be sloppy...

ノート

Failed Wave

Stop Triggered

ノート

Higher Degree Wave did not fail. The image where I noted where my analysis would failed if the $422 level was crossed.

ノート

Excuse typing errors please on my phone.

ノート

Here is the image with the stops.

ノート

Analysis still stands.

Stay the course.

ノート

Wouldn't be surprised at all if BCH just shoots upwards.

ノート

Above: Higher Degree Wave

ノート

Above: Firm Stop $424.99 (Coinbase) & Retrace levels

ノート

Wave 1 usually extends if it only retraces .236 or .382

ノート

Price-Action is showing a leading Diagonal

ノート

The only formation that can violate Elliot's Wave laws.

Wave 2 can never exceed the start of Wave 1
Wave 4 cannot overlap the price area of Wave 1
Wave 3 Cannot be the shortest impulse Wave

ノート

Breakout should be imminent...

ノート

Lower Degree Wave 5 Extended
Higher Degree Wave 5 SHOULD Extend

ノート

Lower Degree Wave 1 & 2 near completion

ノート

I will be updating throughout the day...

ノート

Wave 3 Target hit.

ノート

Wave 3 Extedning

ノート

Wave 3 Extension imminent.

ノート

It’s amazing, every time BCH tries to rally a seller(s) come in to block. What the...

ノート

Note to Seller(s): You Will Not Win!!!!

ノート

Sellers can only surpress price down for so long...it is NOT definite.

ノート

Extension Failed.

ノート

Wave 4 should terminate near Wave 1 terminal.

ノート

Still expecting an Extended 5th Wave

ノート

1HR View:

ノート

6HR View:

ノート

Price-Action looking very strong...

Is it time for the Big Move?

ノート

Wave 5 is extending...

ノート

Added another spiral for Timing purposes.

ノート

Fib Spiral 1: Wave 3 - Wave 4 = Target for Wave 5

Fib Spiral 2: Wave 5 (Sub-Wave 1) - Wave 4 = Timeline for Wave 5 (Sub-Wave 3) to begin

ノート

Approx. 4 hours till next leg higher.

ノート

Fib Spirals played out exactly...

ノート

The main difference between Wave 3 extensions and Wave 5 extensions is that Wave 5 extensions take longer to complete.

ノート

Next Target- Yellow box

ノート

Hoping this Sequence will break us out of the leading diagonal!

ノート

Reminder: This is Higher Degree Wave 3 beginning

ノート

Higher Degree Wave 1 & 2 (Yellow)

ノート

Elliot Rule: Wave 3 CANNOT be the shortest wave!

ノート

Higher wave near-term targets are Fib Extension level 1 & 1.618

ノート

Reminder: No way to guarantee where extensions end.

ノート

40,000 Feet View (Always Important)

ノート

Please give me a like if you find this analysis to be useful!

ノート

The BIG move imminent...

ノート

Review:

1. Higher Degree Wave 3 Beginning
2. Lower Degree Wave
- Wave 1 - Leading Diagonal (Normal)
- Wave 3 - Passed 1.618 but failed to extend
- Wave 5 - EXTENDING

ノート

Plan to open a new idea as soon as we break this leading diagonal

ノート

Bare Minimum Wave 3 has to reach $606.

ノート

Micro-Wave Sequence complete.

Sell and buy back at Wave 1 Terminal.

ノート

Waves are like Russian Nesting Dolls

ノート

Trade opportunity!

If you do not want to trade the correction, place a firm stop just under the beginning of Wave 1

ノート

Reminder: Wave 2 can retrace up to 100% of Wave 1. The most common retrace is between Sub-Wave 1 Terminal and Sub-Wave 2 Terminal. I have represented this with the Red Fib Spirals.

ノート

Wave 2 Corrections are usually in the ZigZag Formation (5-3-5).

ノート

-1HR View
-Added Ultimate Oscillator: Shows negative divergence

ノート

This is where you would sell...

Watch out for the extensions...

ノート

Price-Action Broke 1.236 Level

Watch 1.382 and 1.618 Next...

Looks like the 5th Wave Extension is not over.

Are the shorts starting to cover?

ノート

Fib Spiral Intersections are Key.

Green Circle shows two Fib Spirals intersecting...

This is how I read Fib Spirals...

ノート

Looks like Major Rally is Straight Ahead...

ノート

$562 level is still pointing out to me...

ノート

Looks like one more move down to between $447 & $444 then get ready for the next leg higher which should be to at least $520.

ノート

Little Trade: Sell Here buy back $445

ノート

Trade Worked Perfect...

Now, Let's go higher!

ノート

Above: S1 & S2

ノート

Fib Extension of S1 & S2

-Added Stop

ノート

Counting Waves is an Art not exact science...

ノート

ZigZag Correction should be ending now...

ノート

Above: Extending Higher Degree Wave 1

Not HIGHEST DEGREE (Still in larger WAVE 3)

ノート

STOP Added

ノート

Price-Action Update and Fib Spirals added to help track/predict Wave Sequence

ノート

1HR View + Next Leg Higher Timeline

ノート

Daily View:

ノート

Here is Wave 2 Bottom.

Now we are going higher...

ノート

Above: Sub-Wave Sequence

ノート

Above:

Added Extension Trigger
Added Wave Sequence

ノート

5th Wave was Normal

ノート

Correction should be ending momentarily...

ノート

Correction was FLAT (3-3-5)

ノート

Prepare for the ‘Big’ move...

These levels will likely not be seen again...

Buy what you can here.

ノート

Will update shortly.

ノート

Wave 1 IS extending!

ノート

Price-Action update

Added Spiral

Forming Leading Diagonal

ノート

Wave 1 extended then pulled back...

Stop Triggered.

Opportunity to pick up more BCH.

Analysis still stands.

ノート

Wave 2 came down in a 3 wave sequence which implies a Flat Correction

ノート

Wave 2 Correction Complete

ノート

6HR View
Added Fib Extension (1&2)

ノート

Wave C needs to complete 5 Sub-Waves in order to be complete.

ノート

Hypothetical Price-Action

ノート

Sub-Wave 4 & 5 will become sub-wave 1 & 2

ノート

Price-Action Update:

ノート

Price-action update: We have completed 5 Sub-Waves

ノート

Added Fib. Extension (S1 & S2)

ノート

Breakout imminent

ノート

Next Move should be large...

Wave 3 beginning now.

ノート

Expect Wave 5 to Extend.

ノート

Updated STOP

ノート

1HR View

ノート

Above: Fib Time of Wave 1

ノート

It's time to break the Leading Diagonal we have been in...

ノート

Excuse above...

ノート

Hypothetical Price-Action

ノート

Looks like this is it...

Back to $500's

ノート

Price Action update:

ノート

10 mins or so left...

ノート

Price Action Update:

ノート

In the 'Gap'

Let's see which way it goes...

ノート

Looks like we are going to have a correction sequence

ノート

Wave A bottomed in 5 Sub-Waves which tells us its a ZigZag correction

ノート

Wave B usually travels back up to the .618 level of Wave A.

ノート

Wave C is always 5 sub-waves and bottoms between the 1 & 1.618 fib. Extension level from waves A & B

ノート

Hypothetical Action

ノート

Correction is not a ZigZag but a FLAT

ノート

Action Update:

ノート

#Slowwalker

ノート

Action update:

ノート

Micro-Wave

Wave 1 is Normal
Wave 3 extended
Wave 5 Normal

Expect higher degree 3 extension

ノート

Correction should ending soon

ノート

Look for correction to end near 1.382/1.618

ノート

Action update:

ノート

This wave (3) should extend

ノート

Fib extension 1 & 2

ノート

Wave 3 should pass 1.618 or $442

ノート

Price Action update:

ノート

Notice all The Fib Spiral Intesections

ノート

Wave is tends to be a sloppy formation

ノート

Action update:

ノート

Above:

Yellow Box: Failed Wave

Now: beginning a new micro-wave formation

*please excuse typing while on my phone.

Stay the course!

ノート

Above:

Teal: Primary Wave - Sub-Wave Sequence
Red: ABC Correction
Orange: Primary Wave 1 & 2

ノート

Above: Hypothetical Action

ノート

We have to be getting close...

ノート

Note the Red Spiral Intersection

ノート

Getting really close to breaking out...

ノート

Tiny Sub Wave 3 beginning

ノート

S1 & S3 we’re near equality

Expect 5th Wave to extend

ノート

Wave 5 broke .618 from Fib Extension 0-3-4 which implies it’s extending. Also, it broke the channel line from Terminal wave 1 and Terminal wave 3

ノート

We are reaching the end of the leading diagonal...

The next move high should begin at any moment...

Micro-Wave Sequence & ABC Correction ending now..

ノート

Correction close to ending

ノート

Price should not go below S1(0)

ノート

Take emotion out and trust the analysis

ノート

Reminder: Its extremely difficult to count 1-3 minute wave sequences. Counting waves is more of an Art than Science. Waves can change and waves can fail. If I do see a change in the formation I will update the idea asap. For example, if I originally said it’s a ZigZag Correction but it’s actually a Flat correction I will update the idea to notify the change in the price-action.

Just wanted to let this be known and it is the main reason why I provide so many price-action updates.

Stay the course...we are getting close to the finish line!

ノート

S1(0) held and just quickly looking at the action it looks like we have a Micro-Wave formation.

ノート

You could place a STOP near S1(0)

ノート

My stop is at $424.89

ノート

Perfect Example of a Sloppy Wave 1 Formation...

The less volume the sloppier the wave formations of any given security.

ノート

Expecting BCH to takeoff anytime...

ノート

Here ya go...

ノート

Analysis is about to be proven correct...

ノート

Ye o little faith...

ノート

Last chance to load up on BCH!

ノート

If I don’t post a comment with a chart update I’m just showing the price-action and making sure it is still ‘following’ or ‘riding’ a spiral.

Nothing more and nothing less...

I would notify with comment if there was a change in the analysis.

ノート

Looking good...

Watch 1.618 Level

ノート

$476.90

ノート

Add Fib Extension to Sub-Wave 1 & 2

ノート

Review

ノート

Add Fib Time and Fib Extension to Higher Degree Primary Wave

ノート

Add Fib Extension to Sub-Micro Wave 1 & 2

ノート

See the Leading Diagonal?

ノート

Beautiful Chart Above...

Fibonacci and Wave Theory

ノート

Wave Internals (Sub-Waves) are Key.

ノート

Time Estimate for Sub-Wave 3 to begin. I expect we consolidate side ways for a few more hours.

ノート

Add Fib Spirals to Sub-Waves

Added Scenarios

ノート

Looks like the Green Arrow Scenario is going to play out.

ノート

Sub-Wave Sequence Complete

ノート

Sub-Wave decided to further retrace.

No change in analysis.

ノート

Pretty good time estimate.

ノート

Ignore stop above.

ノート

Sub-Wave 3 was Normal

ノート

Who dumped 5,000 BCH?

Stench of Manipulation...

ノート

Higher Degreee has not completely failed...

ノート

IF we go below 407.65, analysis will fail...

ノート

Wave 2 CANNOT go below the price area of Wave 1.

ノート

Original Analysis

ノート

If Wave Theory is correct we should be ok...

ノート

Just double checked the Wave counts.

ノート

Fib Time 5 marks the end of a Wave Sequence (1-5 Waves + ABC Correction).

ノート

Found the Error...

I messed up the ABC Correction...

Corrected below:

ノート

ZigZag (5-3-5) instead of Flat (3-3-5)

ノート

Analysis Stands

ノート

I think it is safe to say we are at the Apex.

ノート

Above: Log Format

ノート

It should be getting close to time to tell whether this idea will be proven correct or fail.

ノート

BCH/BTC HAS BOTTOMED! Been over the analysis many times....we can only go higher...

ノート

Corrected the Wave Count...

Wave 1 Extended
Wave 3 Normal
Wave 5 Normal

Expect higher degree Wave 1 To extend...

ノート

For those interested in my Fib Theory...

Here is a test of it...

ノート

Wave 3 of this Sequence will hit $440 if the theory stands...

ノート

BCH/BTC will sooner or later be like a rocket launch

ノート

Should be going higher in approx. 9 mins...

ノート

Spiral Targets

Maybe Tradable

ノート

Orange Spiral is Terminal Wave 3 (Wave 1 Terminal to Wave 1 Beginning)

ノート

2.618 is a level that keeps appearing in my analysis...

Likely level for Terminal Wave 3

ノート

Pink Sequence - Hypothetical Action

ノート

Bigger picture...

ノート

Do or die time!

ノート

Will this analysis fail or be right...

Just tell me!

ノート

Fib Spiral Theory Test

ノート

Just to know that I'm not placing the Fib Spiral randomly. Above is the Wave count as I see it.

ノート

Better view of wave sequence

ノート

Wave 3 Terminal: $440-438

ノート

Higher Degree Wave 2 completely finished.

Higher Degree Wave 3 is beginning...

ノート

Reminder:

Highest Wave:

ノート

Higher Degree Target:$6500

ノート

Now the goal is to get rich along the way and trade the Sub-Waves to Higher Degree 3rd Terminal then Sell into the 4th Wave.

ノート

Heavy hitters on deck

ノート

Wait for it...

Batters on deck...

ノート

Coinbase chart

ノート

Heavy Hitters...

The Rush...

Climax...

Everyone thought it was going lower...

ノート

New idea coming soon...

ノート

Strong MACD crossover

ノート

Breakout imminent...

ノート

Wall Street money incoming...

ノート

Wave 3 was Normal.

Expect extended 5th.

ノート

Added Fib Extension 0-3-4

1.618 Target

ノート

Wave Failed....

Don't Panic...

ノート

This will start a Wave Sequence

ノート

Upside Down ABC Correction

ノート

Only used 'ABC' because there is no other '123' Sequence

Correction: 3-3-5

ノート

Ahh so close....

Hurry up BCH!

ノート

I spoke a little soon when I said BCH Cycle Wave 2 was completely finished...

It's ALMOST!

Need this Last C Wave which will turn into a Wave Sequence.

ノート

Excuse me...

Corrected Chart:

ノート

This C Wave will make or break the analysis.

ノート

99.99% Positive my analysis is correct...

ノート

Damn, it feels good to be right...

ノート

New idea will be finished soon...

1 hour or so...

ノート

ノート

New Idea Above!

ノート

Correct Link:

BCH-Fibonacci/Wave Analysis-Leading Diagonal-Apex

関連の投稿

BCH-FINALLY-Primary 5th (Extension)-Update

免責事項

関連の投稿

BCH-FINALLY-Primary 5th (Extension)-Update

免責事項