BCH-Cycle Wave 3-The Great Wave-Part 1 FibMarketWatchによるBITFINEX:BCHUSDの分析

BITFINEX:BCHUSDhas completed Cycle Wave 2 and is beginning Cycle Wave 3 now!

Wow, finally the correction is over! I have been tracking the Waves since the all-time high in December 2017. It has been pretty exhausting and was a LONG process. The good news is that we will rally from here till at least July 2019. Thanks for all the questions and for supporting the idea.

Third waves are wonders to behold! Prices will typically take off in a powerful fashion, and the more you delay joining in the direction of the move, the farther it will go away. Stop loss orders will all get executed and push the prices more and more. Even fundamental news will get interpreted to suit the move (i.e. even if the news was bad, the market will somehow interpret it to mean the worst is over!) During an uptrend, any trader who tries to pick a top and sell for a brief correction will soon find himself stopped out.

Now, the important part...we need to profit from the sub-waves while on the way up to the terminal of Cycle Wave 3. So, this idea will track the sub-waves to find profitable trading opportunities.

Analysis Method: Fibonacci + Wave Theory

Cycle Wave 3 Target: $6,743.30+
Fib Ext. 1 & 2 = 1.618
(1yr+)

Primary Wave 3 Target: $708-$1432
Fib Ext. 1 & 2 = 1.618
(30-90 days)

Review:

Last Idea: BCH - Fibonacci/Wave Analysis-Leading Diagonal Apex

Cycle Wave Sequence
-Wave 1: +347.02%
-Wave 3: +899.29%
-Wave 5: +382.22%
- 133 Days

Cycle Correction Sequence
-A Wave: 5 Waves (Pink) (-84.87%)
-B Wave: 3 Waves (+197.89%)
-C Wave: 5 Waves (Orange) (-77.95%)

Cycle Wave Sequence Price Increase: 2,290.84%
- $215.00/$4,104.30
- 133 Days

Cycle Wave 2 Price Decrease= 90.06%
- $4,104.30/$407.90
- 273 Days

Fibonacci Time Extension: Cycle Wave 1

Primary Wave Sequence

Primary Wave
Wave 1 = 10.01%
Wave 2 = -9.00%
Wave 3 = 24.98%
Wave 4 = -16.67%
Wave 5 = 39.27%

Primary Correction Sequence
A = -28.62%
B = +12.87%
C = -14.83%

Primary Wave Fib Time

Primary Wave Fib Extension:

Primary Wave Fib Spirals:

The Failed Wave

I thought that the correction was over and a new wave sequence was forming but instead I miss counted the ABC Correction as a Flat (3-3-5) instead of a ZigZag (5-3-5) Correction. This is why my handle is The HUMBLE Watcher. Yes, I can miss count Waves but generally I'm very close to the exact wave count.

Review:

Cycle Wave 1 & 2

Monthly:

Weekly:

Daily:

Currently, we are finishing a ABC Correction. Waves A and B are complete and Wave C is underway. Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves to complete.

This idea series is to track the 3rd Cycle Wave and profit from the sub-waves.

Will update.

-AB

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Lower Degree Wave 1 Retrace was approx. 23.6%.

Lower Degree Wave 1 Extended

= Higher Degree Extend

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Added: Fib Time Ext. on Higher and Lower Wave 1

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Massive move incoming...

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Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves to be complete

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Think I count 5 Sub-Waves...

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Wave C Complete.

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Now we should see a sharp move higher...

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Spirals can be a great timing and target mechanism...

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Above: The Complete ABC correction

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Check the indicators for confirmation...

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FYI: Spirals are distorted since indicators are shown

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Favorite MACD setting: 21, 33, 18

Shows less false signals than 12, 26, 9

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Indicators all look good.

Ultimate Oscillator momentum trending higher

EMA Wave indicating a Positive Convergence

MACD is about to crossover

Elder Force shows a Divergence

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Wave C = Wave 1

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Russian Nesting Doll Effect

If you do not know what Russian Nesting Dolls are please Google "Russian Nesting Dolls".

Otherwise you will have no idea what I am talking about...

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Above: Wave C = Wave 1

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Purple = Wave 1 Sequence
Yellow = Wave C Sequence

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The only Wave Sequence that is allowed to violate Elliot's Wave Rules

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Wave 3 violated Wave 1 Price Area

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Excuse me: Wave 4 violated Wave 1 Price Area

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Better View of Sequence

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Sub Wave Count: ABC Correction

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Sub-Wave Count for Primary Wave

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Added:
Fib Ext. = Wave 1 (0) - Wave 1 (T) - Wave C = Wave 3 Levels
Fib Ext. = Sub-Wave 1 (0) - Sub-Wave 1 (T) - Sub-Wave 2 (T) = Sub-Wave 3 Levels
Fib Ext. = Sub-Wave 1 (0) - Sub-Wave 3 (T) - Sub-Wave 4 (T) = Sub-Wave 5 Levels
Fib Spiral = Wave 1 (1-0) = Target Wave 3
Fib Spiral = Wave 1 (T) - Wave C (T) = Timeline Wave 3 to begin

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Changed Spiral Color
Added Time Range

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(0) = Point Zero or Beginning of Wave/Sub-Wave
(T) = Terminal Wave Point or End of Wave/Sub-Wave
(x) = Sub-Wave (1,2,3,4,5)

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After C Wave Finished the price-action has done a sets of 5-3-5.

Complex Correction.

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We are right at the APEX!

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Broke the Leading Diagonal...

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Once that dam (Leading Diagonal) is broken the price-Action should be racing higher...

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Added Fib Extension: S1 & S2 = S3 Key Levels

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Vindication

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Analysis Proven.

Confirmed Correction is OVER!

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Yup...

Lovin it.

This will take awhile to cool down...

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ZigZag Correction Anticipated

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If Wave A comes down in 5 Sub-Waves

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Wave C could be a good trade...

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Wave C happening now...

Fib Ext. Wave A & Wave B = Wave C Levels

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$507-$520. Possible Trade Level.

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Wave 3 is extending

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Wave 3 significantly passed 1.618 Fibonacci Extension Level from Wave 1 & 2.

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Note: Sub-Wave 3 extended

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ZigZag Correction

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Higher Wave

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Wave Sequence so far...

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Fib Spiral Theory -

Wave 1 Spiral = Wave 3 Terminal = Check

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Finding levels where the 5th Wave/Higher 1st Degree could end.

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$556 looks interesting
$520 looks interesting

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This could be a Wave Sequence.

Wave 1 - 5.85%
Wave 3 -12.40%
Wave 5 - 6.42%

Or

Wave 5 could trend near equality to Wave 3

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I’m more inclinded to Wave 5 extending...

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Current Sub-Wave Count

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Might have a ZigZag Correction here...

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Sold @ 483.03

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STOP Hit 484.99

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If the 5th Wave did not extend...the correction would have been at the $484 level.

Now, $520-$566 are the next levels to watch for...

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Added Fib Spiral: Wave 4

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1.618 Breached

Still extending

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Still going...

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$590 is the next level...

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Fib Ext: 0-3-4 = 5th Key Levels

Passing 1.618

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Lower Extension Trigger Added

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Lower=Blue
Higher=Green

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Correction looks to be inbound...

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Yellow box = Wave Sequence

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Sell: $546.00
Buy: $480.00

Watch for Extensions

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Yellow Box Sequence:

1 - 6.4%
2 - 16.4%
3 - 6.5%

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$590 next stop

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I think we MAY have hit exhaustion with the First Wave Sequence.

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Stopped out again...

Passed Extension line

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Ignore Stop Sell...forgot to remove

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$613-$671 Levels to watch.

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BCH is looking to take off again...

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Fib Spiral Target: $720

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Not going to put on another trade until 100% certain we are at the Terminal 5th/Higher 1st.

I suspect that will be around $720.

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Correction Now:

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Target $508 - $498

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Added:
Fib Spiral : Wave 3 (T) - Wave A (T)
Fib Spiral : Wave 3 (T) - Sub-Wave 3 (T)
Regression Trend: Wave 1 (0) to Wave 3 (T)
Channel Line: Wave 1 (0) to Wave 2 (T)
Wave 1 = 15.72%
Wave 3 = 30.41%

Wave C = -11.44% Estimate

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Watch $530 level...

If $530 Fails...watch $480-$485

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STOP-BUY triggered $547

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4.52% Gain

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STOP-SELL $550

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Still Sold @ $550

Stop-Limit Buy @ $475

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1st Wave Sequence Complete
2nd Wave Correction Now...

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The most common retrace for Wave 2 is Fibonacci Level .618.

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Wave 1 only retraced .382

STOP-BUY triggered $553.

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590 Key Level I have been talking about for awhile...

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STOP-BUY turns into STOP-SELL but a little higher to cover exchange fees...

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Looks like a Wave Sequence to me...

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Good Trade opportunity possible...

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Looking to test $566...

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Always watch for extensions and have a STOP-BUY on ALWAYS! If you are trading the Waves!

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Let's find the 5th Extension levels...

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Above: Key 5th Levels

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Let's see if a Wave will trend near equality...

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Wave 1 & 5 are currently trending toward equality...

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It's either Correction or Snap higher...

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Inclined to correction...

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Added Fib Time Extension to Correction Sub-Wave Sequence
Added Fib Time Extension to Sub-Wave Sequence

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Ignore STOP.
Chart is just price-action update.

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Still extending...

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$720 area still looks to be a Terminal point.

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Correction Now.

Unsure if it is the Higher Degree Correction

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Stop Sell Triggered @ 620

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The way it sold off makes me think it is the higher degree

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Review

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$660 next level...

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STOP SELL triggered @ 628.90

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Having trouble here with the Fibonacci Level .5...
Fib Ext. (0-3-4)

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604 is Sub-Wave 1 Terminal for the 5th Wave Sequence

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If 598 fails look to the lower terminal sub-waves

563 Sub-Wave Terminal

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Sub-Wave Sequence held...

STOP-BUY triggered @ 613

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Watch 624 and 630...

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Wave A complete

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620 is failing...

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Higher Degree Correction?

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The main trade we have been waiting for?

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STOP-LIMIT BUY @ 556

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Excuse above.

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Watch the Blue Levels for the retracement...

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Green Spiral is Wave 2 Retrace Target

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Wave 1 & 5 trended to equality.

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Primary Wave Sequence

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Retrace to $475-$480 likely

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Fib Time Ext. Sub-Wave 1 = Time Frame of Higher Wave

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STOP-LIMIT BUY @ $480

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Buy Zone: $488-$476-$459

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Lowered Buy to @ $465.

This will be a fast move...

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Primary Wave Sequence Hit 1.236 Level of Fib Extension of higher Wave 1 & 2

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Staying course to buy @ $465.

Bottom is probably $455-$465.

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Action update: Stay the course

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Quick Drop Imminent...

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Time Estimate to Begin Primary Wave 3

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Buy still @ $465

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Action update:

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Action update:

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Action update:

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Action update:

Watch $480 level...

Buy still @ 465

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Trade Executed @ 465.00

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Great Trade: Sold @ $617 / Bought @ $465 = +152

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Coinbase's bottom was exactly $465.00

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Correction ending soon...

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Part 1 is coming to an end...

New idea coming shortly...

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Primary Wave 3 inbound with HIGH expectations!

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Above: Action update.

Let's Find Primary Wave 3 Levels...

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Primary Wave 3 Target: $841-$697

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MASSIVE SQUEEZE...

SPIKE!

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Reminder: Wave 1's are usually always sloppy....

Spike Anticipated.

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Added STOP...be careful

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The third wave usually begins by the price racing upwards...

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Wave is holding...

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Primary Wave 2 Retraced 100% of Primary Wave 1 = Normal

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all good so far...

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Back to 520...

Possible trade maybe...

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BCH Fork

Don’t miss it...

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Ultimate Oscillator showing divergence...good sign.

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Maybe the unanticipated extra drop was due from money flowing out the exchanges into cold wallets for the fork

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Fork is probably impacting the Wave count...

Do not anticipate this price range to last long....

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Think we have a complex correction...

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Possible Double ZigZag

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Need to hold Green Spiral...

Spike up anticipated.

Complex Corrections imply strong moves ahead...

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Above: Possible Trade Opportunity between $775-$693

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Crypto markets about to get crazy...

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Elder Force and MACD

Note the Elder Force divergence.

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Weekly: Ultimate Oscillator and OBV

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Above: Added Fib Time

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Above: BCH ABC & BCH SV / BTC

BCH ABC looks like the Winner.

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BCH ABC is just chugging along...building stability

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I suspect that gap that was created because of the fork will be closed when trading opens...

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Therefore, the BCH hash war will not be decided in 1 or 2 days, but over many days and possibly weeks by on-going miner votes with sustained Proof of Work. Until a dominant chain emerges, cryptocurrency exchanges, wallet and service providers are advised to remain neutral, and to run a Bitcoin SV node to be prepared for the best interests of users.

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Watch the battle play out here:

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BCHSV is trying to breakout

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Update on SV:

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Update on ABC:

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Almost looks like both are going to survive for now...

I favor SV chart

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ABC is breaking down...

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During this test, SVPool and BMG Group successfully generated five full 32MB blocks—proof “that there are mining systems on the BCH network today that are ready to mine blocks larger than 32MB,” according to the pre-stress test report. SVPool, a personal initiative of Dr. Craig Wright, and nChain’s BMG Group run Bitcoin SV (Satoshi Vision), the full node implementation designed to fulfill the vision set out by Satoshi Nakamoto’s original Bitcoin white paper.

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Meanwhile, mining pools that run Bitcoin ABC achieved much smaller blocks during the pre-test: ViaBTC mined a single 8MB block, while most other blocks mined using Bitcoin ABC were at most 1-2MB during the pre-test.

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Neck and Neck here...

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ABC stalling?

SV gaining?

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Watching history here...

Blockchain will disrupt almost every sector...

You are already seeing it impacting the banking sector...

In the future services will be paid for in tokens...

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Stabilizing?

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SV is producing substantially larger blocks.

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SV is producing 32MB

ABC is producing 4MB

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Need to produce large blocks for micropayments

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Very Bullish Formation here for ABC!

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Sub-Wave 1 has completed and Sub-Wave 2 of the Higher Degree 3rd Wave is finishing now...

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Target $292...

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Added SV

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Question is can they both survive or does one have to kill the other?

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Wave 1 - Normal

Wave 3 - Breached 1.681 could extend

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If Wave 1 & 3 are Normal look for the 5th to extend.

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SV & ABC seem to have stabilized for now and have convereged.

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Target of 292 almost hit...

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SV could COULD have a massive move here shortly...

Complex Correction...

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ABC vs. SV update:

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ABC Update:

Wave 3 DID extend...

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1.681 breached of S1 & S2

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BCH = ABC + SV

$440ish...

Getting back to where we were before the fork...

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I can’t tell you which chain will survive...I would need a computer science degree for that but can tell you that this will not be decided in days...

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SV update: Micro-Wave Forming?

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Target $140

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Indicators look good.

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SV is still producing blocks far superior than ABC...

Proof of Work lead by ABC still declining

Block Size:

POW:

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Nodes (Log) :

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Correct Block Size Screenshot:

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It's interesting too that SV controlled almost 70% of Hash power pre-split...

Another good question is, is ABC (Group) renting hash power and how long can they rent hash power for days, weeks, months?

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Looks like we have a HASH WAR

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Transactions on ABC:

Transactions on SV:

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HASH:

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